5 reasons why T.J. Dillashaw will beat Aljamain Sterling

#2. T.J. Dillashaw's movement

Aljamain Sterling's decision to operate as a kicker will suffer not only because of Dillashaw's pressure but because of the former UFC champion's movement as well. Kicking is a delicate art that requires optimal range to be maximally effective.

As described in the previous entry, a strong kicker requires time, space and leverage to impose their primary approach. Not being able to consistently establish the correct range is what plagued powerful kickers like Anthony Pettis.

A fighter is either forced to backstep to create space, causing them to kick while moving backwards like Carlos Condit did to little effect, or a fighter might kick ahead of themselves if an opponent fights beyond their range.

T.J. Dillashaw is an extremely mobile fighter who can do both. He can and should pressure Sterling when both men cross paths. However, in order to stop Sterling from making reads to potentially time a takedown as Dillashaw moves forward, he must use variety.

Dillashaw is known for sliding out of the path of kicks and even moving laterally to force his opponents to kick into empty spaces while the former champion pivots into their open side. Doing so against Sterling will pay dividends and enable him to counter the reigning bantamweight kingpin when he's one-legged on the open side.

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#1. Cardio and Gameplanning

One of Aljamain Sterling's poorest habits is throwing kicks at a volume that's too high for his limited cardio to support. When 'Funk Master' faced Petr Yan in their initial matchup at UFC 259, he quickly exhausted himself by throwing too many kicks in a short stretch of time.

In their rematch at UFC 273, Sterling reversed this approach and greatly diminished his volume. Neither approach will be effective against Dillashaw.

Throwing too many kicks too quickly will tire him against T.J. Dillashaw, who by contrast, does not tire. He has fought five rounds four separate times, while going four rounds on one occasion. All bouts were high-octane affairs.

Tiring early against Dillashaw, whose volume will only increase as the fight proceeds, would be a fight-ending mistake for Sterling. Additionally, reducing his volume due to fears of depleting his own cardio will not serve Sterling either.

Instead, it will only allow Dillashaw to establish control of the fight early and with greater ease. The dilemma lies in the gameplanning issues that Sterling's cardio causes. Due to his preference for kicking, he quickly saps his limited cardio, forcing him to choose between kicking frequently or barely at all. With no serviceable boxing skills, Sterling has no in-between options.