2015 Australian Grand Prix Preview: Can Lorenzo halt Rossis championship charge?

This weekend, the MotoGP action resumes at Phillip Island, Australia in round 16 of the championship. Although Rossi now has a stiff advantage of 18 points over Lorenzo the championship remains wide open as there are still 75 points up for grabs. The title fight can further be spiced up by the Repsol Honda and Ducati, who are capable of outpacing the championship contenders. With just three rounds to go, it is to be seen whether Rossi can further cement his lead or if Lorenzo can fight back.

Since its introduction in the MotoGP calendar in 1989, the Australian Grand Prix has always stayed at Phillip Island, except for the time period between 1991-96, when Eastern Creek hosted the race. Over the years there have been several thrilling fights on track, but the circuit has usually seen riders take successive victories over a period of time. Among those on the current grid, the championship leader Valentino Rossi holds the record for most victories with five, while Jorge Lorenzo is the only other rider to have won here.

The track has a flowing characteristic, consisting mostly of high speed corners, making it the second fastest circuit on the calendar with an average speed of 177.7 km/h. Overall there are 12 corners around a majorly flat surface, with very few undulations. The race will last for 27 laps, with each lap accounting for a distance of 4.4 km, accumulating to a total race distance of 120.1 km. Marc Marquez remains the lap record holder with a time of 1:28.108.

This season, Yamaha has regained its stronghold on the Constructor’s Championship, thereby ending Honda’s domination of the last four years. Now, in the Driver’s Championship, what was earlier a three way fight among Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo and Marc Marquez, has now essentially become a two horse race after Marquez lost his title bid due to several crashes during the season.

This year the rivalry between Rossi and Lorenzo has further intensified as both of them have remained closely tied for the championship throughout the season. Although it has been Lorenzo who has proved to be quicker, Rossi through his greater experience and consistency has never lost his grip on the championship. Now, having a lead of 18 points, it seems highly likely that Rossi is on course for the title, as even if he finishes second in the final three races, he will still clinch the Championship. But, still it’s all to play for as MotoGP has had a tendency of producing dramatic finishes, where even riders with the slimmest of chances having triumphed.

2015 has turned out to be a disappointing year for Honda, as their winning streak of four consecutive championships finally came to an end, but this does not mean that they don’t have any role to play in this year’s title fight. Their lead rider Marc Marquez has had a strong year and if not for several crashes during the season, he could have easily remained in contention for the title, but as of now with a deficit of 86 points his hopes of a third championship are gone.

Then, there is also his experienced teammate Dani Pedrosa, who has had resurgence in form in the last two races and thus cannot be discounted here either. Marquez can easily be expected to grab another pole as he has done so several times during the season, with the only challenge coming from Jorge Lorenzo. In the race, the Honda’s still have enough firepower to outpace the Yamaha’s and they might prove difficult to pass for the championship contenders if they do get stuck behind them as was evidenced by Rossi’s failure to pass Pedrosa at Aragon.

In comparison to the previous few years, Ducati has enjoyed a very successful season. In fact, this has proved to be their best yet after Casey Stoner left the team in 2010. Their riders, Andrea Dovizioso and especially Andrea Ianonne have impressed through the year, but despite their resurgence, it seems highly unlikely that they will challenge for podium this weekend. Dovizioso finished fourth here last year and will surely hope to go a step higher this year.

The Suzuki team making its comeback this season has found it tough coming back in the sport. There have indeed been flashes of brilliance with Aleix Espargaro taking pole at Catalunya, but besides this, they have rarely threatened the top 6 positions and this time too they seem to be embroiled in battle with the satellite teams.

In the fight among satellite riders, Bradley Smith of Monster Yamaha Tech 3 has maintained his stronghold, with an advantage of 54 points over his nearest rival Cal Crutchlow of LCR Honda. But, it is the battle for second place which remains the most intense, with Crutchlow (98 points) , Danilo Petrucci (93 points) and Pol Espargaro (88 points) remaining in close contention for the spot. Petrucci lost some major ground in the battle at the last race as he crashed out, while Crutchlow gained majorly as he finished sixth ahead of Smith.

In the Open class entries, Hector Barbera of Avintia Racing currently leads his rival Loris Baz of Forward Racing by just two points after Baz was forced to retire due to technical troubles in Motegi. Besides them, there is also an interesting battle going on between Open Honda riders Nicky Hayden and Jack Miller, both of whom remain tied on 16 points.

With the Championship battle heating up, this round remains pivotal as it could prove decisive in the title fight. The question remains as to whether Rossi will be able to increase his lead and further secure his bid for a record eighth premier class title or if Lorenzo through his better pace can claw back points to remain in contention for the title. Whatever the result may be, it sure is turning out to be one of the most thrilling finishes to a championship in recent years.

Additional Information

The weather forecast for the race has been predicted to be partly cloudy, with 0% chance of precipitation, while temperature is expected to be around 17 degrees celsius. But the track has a history of tricky weather conditions, so there might be surprises in store come race day.

The Saturday Qualifying session is due to start at 07:30 AM (IST) and the Sunday Race will begin from 06:30 AM (IST).