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With the Olympic break nearing its conclusion, the NASCAR Cup Series is set to return at Richmond Raceway. On August 11, an intense fight for the four unsecured Playoff spots will be witnessed on the asphalt.
However, three drivers won't be battling for the championship and will chase the highest possible spot for a non-Playoff driver, 17th place.
Ranked 13th, Martin Truex Jr. is the highest-placed winless driver in the Playoff Picture, followed by teammate Ty Gibbs in 14th and Chris Buescher in 15th place. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain is placed 16th with a seven-point surplus over the cutline.
On the other hand, Bubba Wallace is seven points shy of the threshold in 17th. Chase Briscoe is behind in 18th place, followed by the winningest active NASCAR driver, Kyle Busch.
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While a few winless drivers below the cutline might still be within the odds of making it through, three aren't.
#1 Kyle Busch, NASCAR Playoff Picture Rank P19
The Richard Childress Racing driver has suffered from a woeful season since the beginning. The team couldn't provide the same personnel to the #8 Chevy driver for the first six or seven race weekends, On top of that, a key figure of the team, the VP of Competition, Andy Petree's exit was another blow to the #8 team.
The Nevada native has five DNFs in addition to the unwanted winless streak which has severely impacted his place in the Playoff Picture. Moreover, the team is showing no signs of materializing their Playoff odds so far, and thus, this season will mark the first time since his full-time debut in 2012 that Busch will not make it through.
#2 Bubba Wallace, NASCAR Playoff Picture Rank P17
The #23 Toyota driver is running his fifth year with 23XI Racing and last year, he made the Playoffs for the first time since his debut Cup race at Pocono Raceway in 2017. But Bubba Wallace will have to wait until at least next year to again find his way among the top 16 drivers battling for the title.
One of the major factors is that while on one side, Tyler Reddick is way over the Playoff threshold in seventh, his 30-year-old teammate, with the same machinery beneath his Toyota, is statistically performing poorly. Wallace has eight top-10s, four top-fives and a single stage win from 22 races, while the #45 driver boasts his Talladega Superspeedway win, nine top-fives and three stage wins.
#3 Michael McDowell, NASCAR Playoff Picture Rank P21
Michael McDowell is on his seventh full-time schedule with Front Row Motorsports and will be seen driving for Spire Motorsports next year. Since his Cup Series debacle at Martinsville Speedway in 2008, the #34 Ford driver has made it to the Playoffs twice, in 2021 and 2023. The Arizonian marked his career-first pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway this year, followed by his second at Talladega Superspeedway and third at World Wide Technology Raceway.
Despite an upper hand over his rivals, his Ford has failed to maintain the dominant pace for the entirety of his races and he thus couldn't convert his poles into a win. With five DNFs, a 148-point deficit to the requirement and a much-needed race win to save his chances, the 39-year-old driver won't find himself among NASCAR's championship contenders in his last season with FRM.
