Can Bubba Wallace reverse his slow-start trend in 2025 with new leadership?

Bubba Wallace (born William Darrell Wallace Jr.) will be entering the 2025 season with a new crew chief, Charles Denike. Wallace, who drives the #23 Toyota Camry for the Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan co-owned team, 23XI Racing, is expected to buck the trend of slow starts to the season, something that has become a pattern for him in the past three years.

While the Alabama native constantly shows improvement in the second half of the season, his early season performances hinder him from contending for the titles.

Here, we will look at his past three seasons and see if he can get over the slow start trend in the upcoming season amid the change in personnel.

Bubba Wallace: The Trend

In 2022, Wallace had a bad start to his season. He was mired with mechanical issues with 23XI Racing cars where he was only able to secure 1 top-5 finish in the first 12 races of the season coupled with only 4 top-10 finishes. His average finish of 18.0 and 27.1 points per race wasn't a great statistic to write home about. He also had no trophy to lift by the end of the first half of the season.

And that's where Wallace kicked into gear as the second half saw a significant improvement. He won a race in Talladega and earned 2 top 5 finishes and 6 top 10 finishes in the last 14 races of the season. His points per race also saw a whopping 6.3 points increase with 33.4. The 31-year-old made an improvement in his average finish with 16.5.

In 2023, with 1 top-5 finish and 5 top 10 finish with an average finish of 17.5 and 29.5 points per race, the pattern of underwhelming starts to the season saw a return. Despite his abilities behind the wheel, the 23XI driver could only secure a 5th-place finish at Daytona as his best performance in the first half of the season. But the second half was yet again a stark contrast for the Alabama native. With a win at Kansas, Wallace had already shown an improvement. 3 top 5 finishes and 5 top 10 finishes with an increase of 38.3 points per race brought his average finish up to 14.2.

The next season, the rule of thirds appeared to follow his career. This was the first time where his points per race saw a reverse result. His 31.2 points per race saw a downturn to 27.5. He had a better half in the first half of the season with 2 top 5 finishes and 5 top10s in contrast to his second half where he secured 1 top 5 finish and 3 top 10 finish.

The only metric (the most important one) that seemed to follow the trend was his average finish. The first 12 races saw Bubba Wallace's average finish being 16.1, and the second half saw it being 15.0.

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Possible Reason:

23XI Racing typically shows a pattern of improving their equipment and strategy in the second half of the season, which possibly affects how Bubba drives his cars on the tracks.

Wallace excels at the superspeedway, which often comes later in the season as was seen in his wins at Talladega and Kansas, his only career wins in NASCAR.

The 31-year-old is a driver who thrives on confidence and momentum which can only be built when the season starts to come into the thick of it, he builds and builds and then can fully showcase his consistency on the race track.

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Why he can buck the trend:

Tyler Reddick's (the 2024 regular season champion)presence is bound to put more pressure on Bubba Wallace to find consistency and contend for the title. The 23XI racing team have also implemented a major change to secure a better season for Bubba Wallace.

Charles Denike, former crew chief of #19 McAnally-Hilgemann Racing, is set to replace Bootie Barker in the dugout for Wallace. They would be hoping for an improved strategy at the start of the season to offer the Alabama native the help he desperately needs at the start of the season. Denike brings 9 Truck Series wins on his resume and will be expected to give a proven winner in Bubba Wallace more wins and a chance in the playoffs.

Denike served in the US Army as an engineer officer for nine years before transitioning to Motorsports and will hope to bring in the leadership needed to extract consistency from Bubba Wallace in the latter's bid to challenge in the playoffs.

"I am a believer that winning is a process. When you step foot into Airspeed, you see the tools and resources that it takes to win and are surrounded by people with the same vision and mindset. I am looking forward to this next chapter and to be able to contribute to 23XI’s growth and journey to winning championships," Denike said on his appointment (via NASCAR).

The 2025 season will be a test of Wallace's ability to maintain his position within 23XI Racing, especially given the team's increasing ambitions. If he can overcome the inconsistency of the past and convert potential into race wins, 2025 could be a breakout year for him.