Can Kyle Larson take the win at the 2025 Daytona 500? Breaking down the odds for the HMS driver

After winning multiple dirt racing events during the off-season, Kyle Larson is heading into the 2025 Daytona 500 with momentum. The prestigious crown jewel event is set to begin on Sunday, February 16. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion will make his 12th Daytona 500 start this weekend and has yet to take the checkered flag in NASCAR’s biggest racing event of the calendar.

The driver of #5 Hendrick Motorsports driver will aim that 2025 could finally be his year to earn the prestigious Daytona 500 victory and add another achievement to his already outstanding racing career. However, his chance of winning this year’s “The Great American Race” depends on multiple factors, including his superspeedway track record, Hendrick Motorsports’ strength, and the unpredictable nature of the event.

Even though Kyle Larson is one of NASCAR’s modern-day greatest drivers, Daytona has never been his strongest track. He has yet to win a NASCAR Cup race on a superspeedway, and his Daytona 500 results have been underwhelming—often marred by crashes and mechanical issues.

However, the #5 driver has shown improved performance on superspeedways in recent years, finishing fourth at the Talladega playoff race last year. In the 2024 Daytona 500, he led seven laps before finishing 11th in the final standings.

The 32-year-old Elk Grove, California, native has had a subpar performance in the Daytona 500 so far. He scored a best finish of seventh twice in 2016 and 2019, which came in pre-NextGen car era. In a total of 11 starts at this event, he has managed to score four top-10s and two top-15s.

Heading to Daytona International Speedway, Kyle Larson stands at the top position in the betting odds as the favorite to win the 2025 Daytona 500 at +1100 odds, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Kyle Larson and his team have the strength to win this year’s Daytona 500

Larson and HMS have everything that is required to win at Daytona. The Rick Hendrick-owned organization has a strong track record at Daytona. They won last year’s Daytona 500 with William Byron, and Alex Bowman has won a Daytona pole multiple times.

HMS currently ranks first as the most successful team to win the Daytona 500 nine times. Tying with Petty Enterprises, the team is no longer active in the sport.

Coming off an impressive 2024 NASCAR season and off-season run, Kyle Larson’s confidence and the #5 HMS team’s strategy will play a big role. If he starts in front of the field, it could translate into a strong showing at Daytona.

It will be interesting to see whether the 2021 Cup champion turns the fortunes in his favor this time at Daytona.