NASCAR at Atlanta: Odds, picks, starting lineup

NASCAR bettors who gambled on Martin Truex Jr. last week made some money as Truex won the Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway at 12-1 odds. It marked the fifth straight NASCAR race in which one of the top favorites did not win.

Will the trend continue Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway?

The sixth NASCAR Cup Series race this season will be the third on a 1.5-mile track. William Byron and Kyle Larson won the first two NASCAR races on intermediate tracks, with Byron winning at Homestead and Larson at Las Vegas.

Or will another trend continue? Truex was the fifth different NASCAR winner this season, and some big names have yet to reach victory lane, including Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, who combined for 16 wins last year, and series champion Chase Elliott. Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch are also looking for their first wins of the season.

.@dennyhamlin will start on the #BuschPole this Sunday at @amsupdates. pic.twitter.com/gibx24SAWl

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 17, 2021

NASCAR odds at Atlanta

(Odds are from BetMGM, per NASCAR.com)

Kevin Harvick 11-2

Martin Truex Jr. 13-2

Kyle Larson 13-2

Brad Keselowski 7-1

Denny Hamlin 15-2

Chase Elliott 8-1

Joey Logano 9-1

Kyle Busch 10-1

Ryan Blaney 16-1

William Byron 20-1

Kurt Busch 22-1

Christopher Bell 22-1

The NASCAR Cup favorites at Atlanta

Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski are the favorites after having split the last four NASCAR races at Atlanta. Harvick dominated last year's race after NASCAR returned from its break during the pandemic. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch have also won at the 1.5-mile track.

Brad Keselowski has won two of the last four races at @amsupdates and has six straight top 10 finishes here. Coming off a fourth-place finish in Phoenix last week, I caught up with the No. 2 Ford’s driver as he prepares for this Sunday's @FoldsofHonor @QuikTrip #FOHQT500. pic.twitter.com/E83wM3YTuJ

— Kelly Price (@thekellyprice) March 18, 2021

Oddsmakers like Kyle Larson, meanwhile, because he won the last NASCAR Cup race at a 1.5-mile speedway at Las Vegas. Martin Truex Jr., meanwhile, is hot, coming off his win at Phoenix with three straight top 10 finishes.

Best bets in NASCAR Cup race at Atlanta

William Byron at 20-1 is a good gamble. He already has a win this year on a 1.5-mile track, taking the checkered flag at Homestead. He finished eighth last week at Phoenix.

Kurt Busch would also be a great gamble at 22-1. He has three career wins at Atlanta and knows the old, worn-out surface as well as anyone.

Christopher Bell is also worth a look at 22-1. He notched up a win this year on the Daytona Road Course and finished ninth last week at Phoenix.

Long shots to win at Atlanta

Alex Bowman, at 35-1, is worth considering for one simple reason: He drives for Hendrick Motorsports. Hendrick teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron have already won this season, while defending champion Chase Elliott is sixth in points with two top 5 finishes. Bowman's two career victories have both come on big, fast tracks, including the 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway.

#DYK: Hendrick Motorsports leads the way with 14 wins @amsupdates, and we're looking to add on to the record this weekend!Sunday | 3 p.m. ET | FOX pic.twitter.com/vLuRF9Au5Z

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) March 17, 2021

Long-Shot odds at Phoenix

Alex Bowman 35-1

Aric Almirola 50-1

Austin Dillon 66-1

Tyler Reddick 80-1

Matt DiBenedetto 100-1

Bubba Wallace 100-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1

Cole Custer 100-1

Erik Jones 125-1

Ryan Newman 125-1

Atlanta Starting Lineup

1 Denny Hamlin - No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

2 Martin Truex Jr. - No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

3 Joey Logano - No. 22 Team Penske Ford

4 Brad Keselowski - No. 2 Team Penske Ford

5 Chase Elliott - No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

6 Kyle Larson - No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

7 Kevin Harvick - No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

8 Christopher Bell - No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

9 William Byron - No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

10 Ryan Blaney - No. 12 Team Penske Ford

11 Kurt Busch - No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

12 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet

13 Austin Dillon - No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

14 Alex Bowman - No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

15 Bubba Wallace - No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

16 Aric Almirola - No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

17 Chris Buescher - No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford

18 Michael McDowell - No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford

19 Kyle Busch - No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

20 Matt DiBenedetto - No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford

21 Ross Chastain - No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

22 Erik Jones - No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports Chevrolet

23 Ryan Preece - No. 37 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet

24 Chase Briscoe - No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

25 Daniel Suarez - No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Team Chevrolet

26 Justin Haley - No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

27 Cole Custer - No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet

28 Ryan Newman - No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford

29 Tyler Reddick - No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

30 Corey LaJoie - No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

31 BJ McLeod - No. 78 Live Fast Motorsports Ford

32 Anthony Alfredo - No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford

33 Cody Ware - No. 51 Petty Ware Racing Chevrolet

34 James Davison - No. 15 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet

35 Quin Houff - No. 00 StarCom Racing Chevrolet

36 Joey Gase - No. 53 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet

37 Josh Bilicki - No. 52 Rick Ware Racing Ford

38 Timmy Hill - No. 66 MBM Motorsports Ford

39 Austin Cindric - No. 33 Team Penske Ford