NASCAR at Phoenix: Odds, picks, starting lineup

NASCAR bettors who laid down money on Kyle Larson to win last week's NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas likely enjoyed a nice payday at 10-1 odds.

There were likely way more payoffs on Larson than in the first three NASCAR races of the season, which saw surprising victories by longshots Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell and William Byron. While some may have earned money on Byron, few bettors were astute enough to gamble on McDowell and Bell, who were extreme longshots in the Daytona 500 and on the Daytona Road Course, respectively.

There may be even fewer longshot bets this week at Phoenix Raceway, where a handful of NASCAR stars have dominated over the years.

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— Phoenix Raceway (@phoenixraceway) March 11, 2021

Here's a look at the NASCAR odds for the Instacart 500 on the 1-mile track.

NASCAR odds at Phoenix

(Odds are from BetMGM, per NASCAR.com)

Chase Elliott 5-1

Kevin Harvick 6-1

Brad Keselowski 6-1

Denny Hamlin 6-1

Joey Logano 8-1

Kyle Busch 8-1

Kyle Larson 10-1

Martin Truex Jr. 12-1

Ryan Blaney 14-1

William Byron 16-1

The NASCAR Cup favorites at Phoenix

Chase Elliott is favored primarily because he won last year's championship race at Phoenix, a completely different scenario than the first Phoenix race of this season.

Kevin Harvick has dominated the Phoenix track like no NASCAR driver has dominated a single track in recent memory. Harvick has nine career victories at Phoenix, including four straight and six of eight from 2012-2016. He has an astounding 15 straight top-10 finishes, including 12 top-fives, at the track.

That Harvick has slipped in the eyes of oddsmakers at Phoenix likely has more to do with his seventh-place finish there last November and his 20th-place finish last week at Las Vegas. But Harvick was already eliminated from the NASCAR playoffs at the championhship race at Phoenix last year, and his struggles at Las Vegas last week have little to do with his overall performance. That he is tied at 6-1 with Brad Keselowski, who has never won at Phoenix and has just four top-10s in his last 10 races there, is absurd. (For the record, other sport books, like Sportsline, have Harvick the favorite at 9-2.

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— Phoenix Raceway (@phoenixraceway) March 10, 2021

If you don't want to go with the two favorites, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch are all good bets, while Larson, last week's winner, is 10-1 again.

Best bets in NASCAR Cup race at Phoenix

Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Phoenix, but he finished second there in 2012 and has the team and abiity to win anywhere. He's a good bet at 12-1.

One of the best bets is Ryan Blaney at 14-1. Blaney got off to a tough start to the season but rebounded with a fifth-place finish last week at Las Vegas. He has a pair of third-place finishes in NASCAR races at Phoenix in the past two years.

Christopher Bell, who already has a win this year and finished seventh last week at Las Vegas, is also a good gamble at 25-1.

Long shots to win at Phoenix

There are some solid NASCAR drivers who are extreme longshots at Phoenix, but the one who jumps out is veteran Ryan Newman at 100-1. Newman has two wins at Phoenix and smart bettors will be eager to lay a few dollars on him.

Long-Shot odds at Phoenix

Aric Almirola 35-1

Matt DiBenedetto 66-1

Tyler Reddick 66-1

Cole Custer 80-1

Austin Dillon 80-1

Bubba Wallace 80-1

Chase Briscoe 100-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1

Ryan Newman 100-1

Erike Jones 100-1

Phoenix Starting Lineup

1 Brad Keselowski - No. 2 Team Penkse Ford

2 Kyle Larson - No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

3 Denny Hamlin - No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

4 Christopher Bell - No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

5 Martin Truex Jr. - No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

6 Chase Elliott - No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

7 Kyle Busch - No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

8 Ryan Blaney - No. 12 Team Penske Ford

9 Joey Logano - No. 22 Team Penske Ford

10 William Byron - No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

11 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet

12 Kurt Busch - No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

13 Austin Dillon - No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

14 Erik Jones - No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports Chevrolet

15 Ryan Preece - No. 37 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet

16 Michael McDowell - No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford

17 Chris Buescher - No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford

18 Kevin Harvick - No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

19 Ryan Newman - No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford

20 Matt DiBenedetto - No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford

21 Alex Bowman - No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

22 Ross Chastain - No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

23 Tyler Reddick - No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

24 Cole Custer - No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet

25 Bubba Wallace - No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

26 Chase Briscoe - No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

27 Daniel Suarez - No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Team Chevrolet

28 Anthony Alfredo - No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford

29 Justin Haley - No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

30 BJ McLeod - No. 78 Live Fast Motorsports Ford

31 Cody Ware - No. 51 Petty Ware Racing Chevrolet

32 Aric Almirola - No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

33 Corey LaJoie - No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

34 JJ Yeley - No. 53 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet

35 Quin Houff - No. 00 StarCom Racing Chevrolet

36 Josh Bilicki - No. 52 Rick Ware Racing Ford

37 Timmy Hill - No. 66 MBM Motorsports Ford

38 James Davison - No. 15 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet