Kyle Larson aces the 10000 ways to crown a NASCAR champion simulation chart

As the playoffs inch closer, NASCAR resorted to their race simulation system to find out who among the current field of 16 drivers could bag this year's title. The results came out in favor of Hendrick Motorsports driver, Kyle Larson. However, how does this simulation system work? One might ask.

The simulation system studies each driver's overall and track-specific performance and then tracks their finishing positions in each postseason race. From there, the system runs those numbers 10,000 times to determine how likely it is for a playoff contender to advance through each round and ultimately win the championship.

Kyle Larson has a 97.1 percent chance of advancing from the Round of 16, expected to kick off at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday and end at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 21. He has a 90.4 percent chance of advancing from the Round of 12 and a 72.8 percent chance of making it to Championship 4. According to the simulation, there is a 22.3 percent chance that Larson might win his second NASCAR championship.

Kyle Larson tops the field per 10000 ways to crown a NASCAR champion simulation chart (Source: NASCAR)

Larson now has three tracks to conquer in the first three weeks of September: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Watkins Glen International, and Bristol Motor Speedway. In his 13 starts at Atlanta, the Elk Grove native owns two top 10s and a pair of runner-up finishes. He has led a combined 440 laps at the 1.540-mile quad oval racetrack.

Moving on to Watkins Glen, also known as 'The Glen', Larson has two wins (2021, 2022), two top 10s (2018, 2019) and a top 5 finish (2014). Rounding up at Bristol Motor Speedway, Larson has five top 10s, three top 5s, and a win (2021).

Kyle Larson rules out the point advantage aspect of the playoffs

Kyle Larson during the NASCAR Playoff Media Day (Source: Imagn)

Kyle Larson is the No. 1 seed to enter this year's playoff rumble, flaunting four race wins, 10 stage wins, and a runner-up position in the regular season standings. He owns 40 playoff points and a 35-point cushion over the provisional Round of 12 cutline. However, the 2021 Cup Series champion recently said that a point advantage does not always matter in the playoffs.

"No, I don't care about odds, really," Larson said (as reported by tobychristie.com). "Yeah, I don't. I think like I said, NASCAR, especially in the Next Gen era, is just crazy. There's so much inconsistency these days that you can easily find yourself in trouble. It doesn't matter if you have a 35 or 40-point buffer to the cutline currently."

"I mean, I think having the bonus points and playoff points that we’ve earned throughout the regular season is nice. But it still doesn’t guarantee anything. You still have to not run into any trouble, especially in back-to-back weeks, and hopefully, you can just make it through," he explained.

Tickets for Sunday's race are available on the official website of Atlanta Motor Speedway. Fans can also watch the 260-lap event live on USA and NBC Sports. PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio will deliver radio updates on the same.