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Nineteen-year veteran driver Denny Hamlin is still seeking that elusive first NASCAR Cup Series championship in 2024. However, after a difficult 24th-place finish at Atlanta last Sunday, the three-time winner this season finds himself at risk of exiting the playoffs in round one.
After entering the playoffs 10 points above the cutline to advance to the Round of 12, the three-time Daytona 500 champion finds himself only two points above the cutoff with two races remaining in the Round of 16.
However, fans of the #11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver shouldn't be worried about a must-win situation yet. Here, we take a look at why Hamlin isn't in a must-win scenario for the next two weeks.
Hamlin is strong at Watkins Glen and Bristol
The Go Bowling at The Glen and the Bass Pro Shops Night Race make up the final two races of the first round of the playoffs. With only one win on a road course, tracks like Watkins Glen have proved to not be Hamlin's forte. However, "The Glen" is one of the better road races for the 54-time Cup Series race winner.
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Last year, Hamlin started on pole and finished second at Watkins Glen behind winner William Byron. Since picking up his sole road course win at the New York track in 2016, he's only finished outside the top five at the 2.45-mile road course twice.
Meanwhile, Hamlin is a four-time winner at Bristol and has claimed victories in the previous two races at the Tennessee half-mile short track. Last September, he started the race from second and finished first, while in March, he rolled off third and secured the win in the end. If there are any two tracks where Hamlin can turn his fortunes around, Watkins Glen and Bristol just might be those.
Hamlin has only been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs once
Hamlin is a proven yearly contender for the championship, having made the second round of the playoffs in every season since the new playoff format was implemented in 2014, except the 2018 season—which also stands as his only winless season. If you're a fan of trends, the odds of the co-owner of 23XI Racing making a premature playoff exit in round one are slim.
Hamlin still holds a two-point cushion over the cutline
The major reason that Hamlin isn't in a must-win situation is that despite losing much of his pre-playoff buffer, he still clings on to a spot in the next round by two points. If Brad Keselowski, Harrison Burton, Martin Truex Jr., and Chase Briscoe, the four drivers currently below the cutline, have misfortunes in the next two weeks, it'll give Hamlin more breathing room between himself and the cutoff. Plus, if the nine drivers above him who've yet to claim a spot in the next round have problems, Hamlin could easily surpass them in the standings for more playoff insurance.
Between his success at the upcoming tracks, his history in the playoffs, and the unknown of where other drivers will fall in the next two weeks, Hamlin isn't in a must-win situation at the moment as the Round of 16 continues.
