Is Pokemon GO a pay-to-win game? The answer might depend on the context in which the question is asked. Since this free-to-play game has no set objective, players determine what their end goal is. Based on that, the game's microtransactions can be perceived differently, making it a pay-to-win game in some aspects but not so much in others.
To get to the bottom of this question, it may be best to address how Pokemon GO can be considered a pay-to-win game and how it might not be. Whether the game rewards players in a competitive sense for spending real-world money can come down to what a trainer aims to do within the game's confines.
Examining how Pokemon GO can be considered a pay-to-win game
Check out the current Pokemon GO raid bosses that you can encounter in-game
Many Pokemon GO players who consider the game pay-to-win tend to base their views through the lens of PvP, particularly the Master League meta, where legendary and mythical Pokemon tend to reign supreme more often than not. Considering many legendary and mythical species are only obtained from raids or limited-time events/research, acquiring those with high IVs requires much effort.
This is made particularly difficult since players who don't spend money on Pokecoins only receive a single raid pass per day. Though they can obtain free Pokecoins by defending gyms, this process takes time/berries and has a maximum cap of 50 coins per gym defense. Conversely, players who pay for Pokecoins can skip the wait and continue raiding to their hearts' content.
Additionally, some events require players to spend real-world money on tickets that give them access to Pokemon, research questlines, and rewards that free-to-play trainers don't have. A particularly sore spot for some players leads back to the Mythic Blade event, where Keldeo was paywalled and hasn't been made available since, though there is some speculation it may become an Elite Raid boss.
Given all this information, Pokemon GO players who actively spend money to acquire more raid passes and event tickets tend to be able to encounter powerful Pokemon more often, including finding their hundo (100% IV) versions and shiny variants at higher rates than free players since they don't have to spend time accumulating Pokecoins and buying items in the shop when they run out.
This can translate to spending more money on shop items, leading to more powerful GO Battle League PvP teams and rare 'mons in a trainer's collection, leaving some to call the game pay-to-win on these grounds. However, not every Pokemon GO player aims to collect shinies or assemble teams for Master League battles, and this is where the pay-to-win assertion can get murky.
Examining how Pokemon GO may not be considered a pay-to-win game
While there are advantages to paying for microtransactions when collecting rare creatures and winning PvP battles, trainers who aren't concerned with either in Pokemon GO can still accomplish many things. If players prefer to catch their favorite Pokemon from each generation and enjoy gameplay features like raids/Routes/Party Play with their friends, they still can.
By defending gyms and racking up Pokecoins, trainers still have access to most of the items in the Pokemon GO shop (minus some event tickets), and saving up Pokecoins wisely can help them stay stocked up on anything from Poke Balls to raid passes, storage upgrades, incense, lure modules, and more. Trainers who pay real money may be able to get them faster, but some players aren't in a hurry.
All in all, if trainers are aiming to enjoy the game but don't necessarily want to top the PvP charts or take down Elite Raid bosses regularly, then they can get by without spending a dime. Much of the game remains available to free-to-play players as it ever was, and casual enjoyment of the game doesn't require any form of buy-in.
Verdict
This returns us to the question: Is Pokemon GO pay-to-win? Ultimately, if a player's goal is to capture every last Pocket Monster and shiny variant or dominate with a high-level PvP team, then the game can be seen as pay-to-win. Paid players gain a leg up when raiding powerful 'mons, participating in exclusive portions of events, and completing exclusive limited-time research.
Be that as it may, if a trainer wants to explore the game world, collect Pokemon they like, and enjoy the game in a relaxed and social sense, then the game isn't likely pay-to-win in that context. Players can spend money on microtransactions to speed up access to items and activities, but if they aren't hoping to be the best of the best, then there's no real urgency to spend money.
All in all, Pokemon GO is pay-to-win for the more competitive aspects but isn't for those who just enjoy playing the game and what it offers. Since there's no real explicit objective of the game and trainers can play how they choose, spending money to "win" the game comes down to a matter of a player's goals.
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