Explained: Could Christopher Nolan’s $100,000,000 budget Oppenheimer struggle at the box office?

As the day for the grand release of Christopher Nolan's next epic saga Oppenheimer nears, the anticipation among movie fans has been palpable. Known for his ambitious projects such as Interstellar, and Batman Begins, Nolan has once again pushed boundaries with this future blockbuster to bring to the audience the visual grandeur of Oppenheimer.

Oppenheimer had been reported to cost $100 million initially. Variety misquoted the amount as $180 million, which was later corrected to be more like $100 million by Universal Studios. Keeping the expenses in mind, the movie promises to be another cinematic marvel as evident from the trailer that dropped on May 8, 2023.

It is slated to release on July 21, 2023, along with Greta Gerwig's Barbie which has kept fans wondering which title might win the race.

The more grave question that remains to be asked is whether Oppenheimer could struggle at the box office to make profits given the transition from cinemas to OTT platforms following the pandemic. Despite the advance bookings, the ticket sales would matter once the Barbenheimer hype has passed.

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Oppenheimer becomes Nolan's fourth most-expensive film

The visionary director Christopher Nolan's twelfth film, Oppenheimer, has been reported to be filmed on a budget of $100,000,000 - an occurrence that is rare in the post-COVID era unless it is another movie from the superhero genre.

After The Dark Knight Rises ($250 million), Tenet ($200 million), and The Dark Knight ($185 million), the upcoming historical drama has been listed as Nolan's fourth most expensive movie trailing behind.

During the development stage of the film, Nolan put forth certain demands to Universal Studios which included a production budget of $100 million and a similar marketing budget for the films promotions. The movie was to receive a theatrical window of at least 100 days as per the contract. Along with this, the movie would get a three-week period pre and post-release during which no other film by Universal would be released.

Additionally, the contract assures Nolan of 20 percent of the film's first-dollar gross which would offer him 20% of the ticket sales thereby taking out around $50 million from the profits. The film has two unusual features that have also shot up the budget - the use of IMAX 70mm cameras and the lack of CGI in filmmaking.

The stellar ensemble cast including A-listers like Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, and Robert Downey Jr. could promise to draw out the crowds to the multiplexes initially.

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Projections for box office collection

According to a Screen Rant report, to make up for the demands and breakeven, Oppenheimer has to earn a minimum of $200 million. However, to make profits from the movie, it has to earn a sum of $250 million worldwide if a multiplier of 2.5x of the budget is considered to calculate earnings.

Nolan spoke with Variety at the film's London premiere on the length of the picture and how the script represents.

"The runtime is two minutes shorter than Avengers: Endgame, so we cling to that. I said to Emma Thomas very early on that it's going to be a three-hour film. I have to write a script that reflects that. That was our conversation with the studio. It's a big story and needs a big talent. It's a 180-page script and it's a 180-minute movie", Nolan said.

Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer makes a worldwide release on July 21, 2023, and so far, the attention it has garnered so far may only prove the upcoming movie to be another Interstellar in magnitude.