US Nostradamus Allan Lichtman, who predicted Kamala Harris's win this election, shared his statement after the election results on Wednesday, November 6. Donald Trump won the race by securing 295 electoral votes to become the 47th President of the United States.
Soon after, Lichtman addressed his viewers on X:
"Look, my prediction for this presidential election was wrong. I own up to it. Right now, I am taking time off today, Wednesday."
The History professor has been using his "13 Keys to the White House" formula to foretell who would be the U.S. President since 1984, making nine out of his ten predictions come true.
These 13 keys include — Party mandate, Contest, Incumbency, Third party, Short term economy, Long term economy, Policy change, Social unrest, Scandal, Foreign/military failure, Foreign/military success, Incumbent charisma, and Challenger charisma.
However, after Harris' defeat, Lichtman told viewers he would assess why his keys went wrong this time on his live show on YouTube on Thursday at 9 p.m. He would also evaluate:
"What we can learn from era and what the election means for the future of our country going forward."
Netizens soon took to social media and reacted to Allan Lichtman's statement. On an X repost of Lichtman's video by Collin Rugg, one user commented:
"He misapplied his keys on purpose to help Harris. The 13 keys aren’t the problem/ HE is the problem"
"Not only was he horribly wrong, he was incredibly smug and condescending to anyone that questioned his conclusions. Bye", wrote another commenter.
Several others accused the prognosticator of being Harris-biased and evaluating his keys in a way that would make the outcome in her favor.
"Yea, you cooked yourself with your clearly biased polling. You are now officially irrelevant", said one more person.
"Don't underestimate Americans. While pollsters focus on data and stats, we base our votes on our personal circumstances and what we believe is best. Donald Trump was the best choice to return American prosperity", commented another.
Many wrote Allan Lichtman predicted the election outcome from an emotional perspective rather than being factual.
"The keys were wrong because he didn't look at was being done to more than half the country just because they had different opinions. He made predictions based on emotions not data", said one X user.
Allan Lichtman reaffirmed his prediction before Trump was declared the winning presidential candidate
In a conversation with CNN host Laura Coates on Monday, she asked Allan Lichtman:
"Your keys are pointing toward Kamala Harris. Has anything happened in the last few weeks, makes you feel more confident in your prediction?"
Lichtman responded:
"Nothing has changed. The biggest myth in American politics is the so-called October surprise. I've always issued my predictions before then and never change them."
The Historian referred to the biggest October surprise before the 2016 presidential election. Two days before a debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump back then, a 2005 tape surfaced. The tape allegedly recorded Trump discussing his attraction to women and using vulgar language. Despite this, Allan Lichtman maintained his prediction that Trump would win the election, which turned out to be correct.
When asked about his increased anxiety before the 2024 election, Lichtman, 77, explained that it was due to the "hate" he received, which had never happened before. He also mentioned that his family's safety was threatened, requiring police involvement.
Lichtman continued:
"It's been terribly upsetting. The other thing is, I believe democracy is on the line in this election. If I'm wrong, so be it."
The History professor claimed even if his prediction is wrong one time, it should not discredit his 13 Keys system. However, he stressed his opinion about a potential threat to American democracy. He opined there has been a "decline of democracy all over this world" in recent times.
Shortly before the results were out on Wednesday, Allan Lichtman called statistician Nate Silver's poll "unreliable". He criticized Silver for stating the presidential win could depend on luck.
After Trump's victory over swing state Pennsylvania, Lichtman said he was losing hope. He once again mourned the supposed loss of democracy as Trump continued to receive more votes, eventually leading to his win.