5 Reasons To Be Worried About The Launch of AEW

Days ago when Cody Rhodes, the Young Bucks and business magnate Tony Khan officially launched All Elite Wrestling with a reported $100,000,000 in initial financial backing, fan excitement across social media reached a fever pitch. Even WWE has apparently taken notice as reports about Triple H offering the Young Bucks and Adam "Hangman" Page sweetheart contracts and fans having trouble getting into WWE shows with AEW merch have surfaced.

For the first time in nearly twenty years, it appears that there may be true competition for WWE and that, as previously suggested by this writer, the wrestling business itself may be in expansion mode. Most fans that aren't strictly limited to the McMahon monopoly want alternatives to succeed as well, since the health of any industry ultimately depends on its ability to foster competition. However, the gleeful enthusiasm over AEW must be tamed with the sobering reminder that the start-up federation has some serious issues that will hopefully be addressed in the coming months as preparation for their "Double or Nothing" show this Memorial Day weekend in Las Vegas begins. As with any nascent business, growing pains are a natural part of the growth process. However, AEW's future business strategy itself appears to have some serious problems that must be reconciled before the company can go on and achieve great things.

There have been misconceptions about the company's salary and benefits put to print in the pro-wrestling media, and the exact details of the promotions' wrestling philosophy and plans for success are scarce. Nevertheless, based on available information, it is important to point out to the wrestling community that may view AEW as some kind of utopian panacea that will single-handedly make wrestling popular on a mainstream level again, that the company faces some unique challenges that have to be mitigated before they can go on to ascend to the upper reaches of pro-wrestling paradise.

1. Their roster is in growth phase, and may not be exclusive

As of this writing, AEW has signed about a dozen wrestlers to contracts including Cody, the Young Bucks, Chris Jericho, Adam "Hangman" Page, Joey Janela, Penelope Ford, Britt Baker, So-Cal Uncensored and PAC (formerly known as Neville) yet despite the promise behind these names, they aren't even enough to fill out a full pay-per-view card let alone comprise a respectable roster that can be drawn on in cases of in injuries, poor fan reception or contract releases. Of course as the weeks and months go on there will most likely be new contracts signed and more names added to deepen the talent pool, but it remains to be seen how everyone will be utilized relative to their abilities.

It also remains unclear where the company plans to draw most of its talent from - the indie scene, other mid-sized promotions like ROH, WWE or their own internal training efforts. Rumors of WWE talent defecting to the Khan's HQ in Jacksonville have been reported across the pro-wrestling media landscape, but none are confirmed. Without a visible source to consistently draw talent from it remains a complete mystery how AEW plans to fill in their ranks. There is also the issue of exclusivity. Minus a fulltime show schedule (Double or Nothing is the only event planned between now and the start of Summer), talent could conceivably become part time freelancers, meaning they could be seen performing for any number of different wrestling companies at once, diminishing AEW's market value.

2. They have no plans to consolidate

On a recent edition Sean Waltman's X-Pac 12360 podcast, Tony Khan specifically stated that AEW has no plans to purchase other promotions or buy tape libraries and didn't elaborate further as to why. This is troubling as the existing pro wrestling market has become saturated with small to mid-sized federations languishing in relative mediocrity, making AEW another addition to an already crowded field of WWE alternatives. Ring of Honor, Impact or an indie fed would be the perfect pet project for a wealthy individual interested in speculating in the wrestling business to get involved with, as they have existing industry recognition, internal infrastructure and fanbases that would make positioning them for success much easier than starting a company from scratch.

There is also the issue of tape libraries, which are often the heart of a wrestling companies underlying financial value. Since the Elite have only produced one show thus far, it will be a long time before AEW can sell a streaming service or lots of physical media. At least with the old TNA and Ring of Honor libraries under control, they could hawk a $5-10 per month VOD service until they've established a healthy back catalog themselves.

3. Their lofty ideals are, pun intended, "too sweet"

By no means am I condemning a company that is still in its infancy, and it is certainly admirable that this bright new brand in wrestling wants to improve the industry's standards for their respective roster, but some of the rumors about AEW trying to do right by their in-ring workers have gone a bit overboard. The chatter over healthcare being offered to AEW talent has been quickly put to rest as Tony Khan specifically said on the X-Pac podcast that only the wrestlers who doubled as executives would be receiving the benefit. Khan went on to dodge further questions about the issue making it clear that he isn't interested in changing the standard of treating wrestlers as independent contractors who must pay for their own care.

Likewise, the talk of equal pay for men and women also sounded noble on the surface when announced by Brandi Rhodes yet makes zero business sense beyond promising equal base salary. Afterall, most female wrestlers don't draw significant ticket sales so the tone def insinuation that the wrestling business systemically undercuts female performers and therefore equal pay should be instituted makes no sense. Instead of focusing on helping women wrestlers to undergo more intense training and pay more attention to their craft in finer detail so they can execute better matches and character work, AEW would rather virtue signal whilst putting Brandi Rhodes, who has very limited in-ring talent and zero experience writing, booking or training female wrestlers, in charge of the women's division.

Additionally, the company is insisting on the importance of wins and losses which have been said will tie directly into pay, yet this idea seems almost oblivious to the reality that professional wrestling is pre-determined and by tying salary in with wins and losses, wrestler's earnings will be directly linked to politicized booking decisions rather than their ability to put butts in seats. Of course since AEW is brand new they should be given the benefit of the doubt and time to get their policies and plans in order.

4. Indie wrestling, ROH, NJPW and NXT will probably lose momentum

With AEW trying to position itself as the new big man in the room, it's not hard to see how everyone else other than maybe main roster WWE will suffer as a result. Why watch or support indie wrestling like PWG when AEW will likely do the same thing with much stronger production values? Why watch Japanese wrestling when the AEW will likely do the same thing but without the language and cultural barriers? Likewise, why watch NXT when you could fight the machine and support the shiny new toy that isn't owned by Vince McMahon?

By potentially taking away attention from other promotions, All Elite Wrestling could unintentionally fragment the industry rather than expand it. There are a finite number of fans and hours in the day to watch, and since it's unclear if anyone has a plan to create new viewers from scratch, one can only assume that a Double or Nothing ticket buyer might skip out on the upcoming New Japan G1 show in Texas. Talent raids could also spell disaster for rival promotions and though ROH and NJPW have survived them before, AEW having a highly advantageous $100 million budget at their disposal could spell the end of the former two companies expansions.

5. TV deals come and go

Chris Jericho has officially signed a 3-year contract with All Elite Wrestilng

With a limited pay-per-view schedule and no house shows, streaming service or tape library, it appears that a potential TV deal will have to be AEW's main focus, which rumors have hinted at. Selling merchandise in the form of t-shirts and knit knats have been shown to be profitable due to high margins, but only a television deal on major American and international networks could be large enough in scale to recoup the Khan investment (WWE's TV deal by comparison is the biggest line item on their balance sheet and sole reason for their profitability). The problem is that relying on TV as a phantom company with no history or significant secondary revenue streams means that such a deal could potentially make or break the company. Contrast this with NJPW's viable, profitable business model which is primarily based on ticket sales and revenue from their own proprietary VOD service and it's easy to question the sustainability of AEW.

New Japan, along with rival promotion AJPW and women's promotion AJW, all enjoyed mainstream popularity in their home country during the 80s and 90s due to their presence on television in the Land of the Rising Sun but things change and what was a TV hit 25 years ago could be irrelevant now. NJPW is barely on conventional Japanese TV for a half hour in the middle of the night these days, yet their business is still successful on a smaller scale due to strong touring. Does AEW plan to mimic this model?

Likewise, Impact Wrestling whilst "TNA" once enjoyed ratings of well over a million viewers a week, something that would be considered fantastic today for a non-WWE wrestling company. Yet recently they were released from Pop TV after ratings shrunk to under 100,000 despite the recent product being praised by critics. In a word, TV alone is an unreliable way for a wrestling company to sustain itself long term as WWE is the one and only company to maintain a strong television presence throughout its entire history. Everyone else has gone through peaks and valleys. What happens if AEW can't keep a deal in place long term? What if they fail to secure a major primetime slot to begin with? The future of wrestling certainly won't look as bright.

Edited by Moderator -PJ