CLT20: Qualification scenarios for Southern Express, Lahore Lions, Northern Knights and Mumbai Indians

The hammering handed out by Northern Knights to Lahore Lions yesterday has given Mumbai Indians more than a decent chance of qualifying for the next round, helped by their own Net Run Rate (NRR) improving victory against Southern Express later in the same day. The surprising factor, though, is that even the Express side, who haven’t won anything so far, can qualify for the next round and the Knights, the table-toppers, can be thrown out of the tournament. Here is a look at who has to do what, to progress: TeamsMatchesWinsLossesPointsNRRNorthern Knights 2 2 0 8+2.684Mumbai Indians 2 1 1 4+0.498Lahore Lions 2 1 1 4-1.496Southern Express 2 0 2 0-1.670Tomorrow’s fixtures: Southern Express v Lahore LionsMumbai Indians v Northern Knights

#1 Southern Express

Southern Express have to win their match against Lahore Lions and then hope that Mumbai Indians lose to Northern Knights in the night fixture to stand any chance of qualifying for the tournament proper. Even while assuming that is the case, the Knights have to beat Mumbai by 30 runs, say, if they set 161 as the target. Also, the Sri Lankan domestic champions themselves should have got the better of the Lions by 33 runs or more, assuming they score 160 while batting first, for them to reach the second spot.

#2 Lahore Lions

If both the Lions and the Knights win their respective matches, they go ahead together. If the Lions win and the Knights lose, then it will lead to a three-way tie; NRR will then have the final say. With the Knights’ NRR at +2.684, courtesy of their thumping wins against both the Express and the Lions, it will take some doing to throw them out: the Lions need to win the Express side by a margin of 50 runs while batting first and scoring 160 runs and hope that the New Zealand domestic T20 champions lose their fixture by a mammoth margin of 87 runs or more while chasing 160.

On the other hand, if the Lions lose and Mumbai win, then the Knights and Mumbai will make it to the next stage.

#3 Northern Knights

If the Knights win their match, they will obviously have no issue in making it to the tournament main. If they lose, they can still go through providing the Lions also lose in their match.

However, if the Knights lose and the Lions win, then it will result in 3 teams with the same number of points, only differentiated by NRR. For the Knights to be pushed to number 3 in the table, the following needs to happen: the Express losing by 60 runs after being a set a target of, say, 161 and Mumbai Indians winning by 79 runs after putting up 160 on the board.

#4 Mumbai Indians

If Mumbai Indians lose, they would need a Lahore Lions-defeat in the first fixture of the day, as well, which will make it 3 teams with 1 wins each differentiated only by NRR.

For the Sri Lankan side to push both Mumbai and the Lions out, they need to score 160 and bundle out the Lions to a score of less than 130 and hope that Mumbai lose by 34 runs while chasing, say, 160 set by the Knights.

If Mumbai win their match against the table-topper side – Knights and the Express also inflict a defeat on the Lions, then they will move into the main tournament without any complications. However, if they win and the Lions also win, then the Mumbai side should hope for the following scenario: they should win their match against the Knights by 22 runs or more after scoring 160, while the Lions shouldn’t win by 100 runs or more after scoring 160 against the Express.

Source: The article is written taking inputs from ESPNcricinfo.