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Merely a few fixtures into the domestic footballing calendar and already we’ve been treated to a feast of surprises from the best divisions across the continent. Some teams have ignited their respective campaigns with blockbuster starts, while others have stalled in their attempts to burst out of the blocks.The EPL especially has captured our imagination with an interesting start to the script, but football fans everywhere still no doubt yearn for the resumption of the greatest club competition on Earth – the UEFA Champions League.Nothing can match the brutal hostility of a night in Eastern Europe, the shivers that rattle through players’ spines at the sound of the competition’s anthem or the enigmatic unpredictability the tournament throws up on a weekly basis. These factors and much more only heighten the anticipation ahead of this season’s edition and, following this Thursday’s group stage draw, it seems impossible to keep European football off the mind. The 32 competing sides were divided into four separate pots ahead of the draw, with Pot One containing the holders Barcelona, as well as the league champions of the seven highest ranked divisions across the continent.As Barcelona were also winners of La Liga, this opened the door for Eredivisie winners PSV to join the other seven sides in the top pot. In the other three pots, teams were organised based on their UEFA coefficient score.Predicting how things will finish up come December 9th is about as difficult as comprehending the technical procedure for the draw but, much like Melanie Winiger’s attempt to speak Spanish, I’ve given it my best shot nonetheless.
#1 Group A
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In the opening group, making their twentieth appearance in UEFA’s elite competition, are Real Madrid. The Spaniards are joined by French champions PSG, Ukrainian runners-up Shakhtar Donetsk and, the most successful side in Sweden, Malmö FF.
The first two names to be drawn into this group promise a tasty affair and, make no mistake, Real Madrid and PSG will be hot favourites to advance. The former hold the record for the most consecutive qualifications from the group stage (18) and, following their 2013/14 title, made it to the final four in last year’s competition, before being dispatched by Juventus in the semi-finals.
Rafael Benítez has arguably the strongest squad to work with from the 32 teams and while brushing Shakhtar and Malmo aside is expected, they should edge the big clashes with PSG as well.
Boasting one of the fattest wallets on the European stage, PSG would be outright favourites to top pretty much any other group but Real will most likely pip them to the post and second should suffice.
Meanwhile, a side working on less than a quarter of the French outfit’s income in 2014, Shakhtar, have lost the likes of prominent striker Luiz Adriano, talismanic midfielder Douglas Costa and young prodigy Fernando this window, and so are unlikely to replicate their second place finish last season.
Minnows Malmo may have secured a routine Swedish title at the end of last season but, despite seeing off Celtic in the qualifiers, are expected to be the whipping boys of Group A.
1. Real Madrid
2. PSG
3. Shakhtar Donetsk
4. Mälmo FF
#2 Group B
While Group A practically predicted itself, the second quartet on the list is set to be far more competitive. Sure favourites Manchester United will face Dutch champions PSV, Russian regulars CSKA Moscow and the second placed side in last season's Bundesliga VFL Wolfsburg.
United return after a year’s absence and their string of Summer signings and experienced group of players puts them in the driving seat to top the group. German side Wolfsburg’s success, on the other hand, will rest heavily on where the future of Kevin De Bruyne lies, while the lack of expectation surrounding PSV could be of massive advantage to the side from Holland. CSKA’s playoff victory was fortuitous and it was an 85th-minute strike from Ahmed Musa which guided them past the unlucky Sporting Lisbon.
The Manchester club’s attacking prowess is capable of unravelling all three sides in Group B and their defensive vulnerabilities shouldn’t be exposed until the latter stages of the competition. With a sound winning record in the Champions League (54%), good memories of Russia and King Louis’ unrivalled knowledge of the Dutch game, Wolfsburg should be the only testing trip for a United side I expect to ease through.
Dieter Hecking’s side may be focused around the attacking dynamics of De Bruyne, but the German side are very tough to break down, especially at home. PSV are very young are pretty raw to European football in recent seasons, while CSKA have been a shambles on the Champions League stage in the past and playing in such a weak division each week won’t do them any favours.
1. Manchester United
2. Vfl Wolfsburg
3. PSV
4. CSKA
#3 Group C
Another very open contest, Group C consists of Portuguese title holders Benfica, Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, tangible Turks Galatasaray and Champions League debutants Astana.
Although they found themselves in the second pot due to UEFA’s new seeding system, Atletico should top the group and are my dark horses to go far again this season. The additions of Jackson Martinez from Porto and Luciano Vietto from Villareal has bolstered the undeniably aggressive attacking options at Simeone’s disposal.
Atletico responded to a dismal 3-2 defeat on Champions League opening day last season with five consecutive clean-sheets, in which they racked up thirteen points to advance ahead of eventual runners-up Juve to the last 16 and then quarter finals where they lost out to bitter rivals Real.
In a relatively weak group, I predict Benfica to fall one short of top spot, while Galatasaray should secure Europa League qualification with third and Astana, the first Kazakhstani team to make the group stage, will most likely finish rock bottom.
Benfica boss Rui Vitória is young and hungry and has got the team playing disciplined, yet exciting, football and, although long trips to Istanbul and Astana will be tolling, the quality of Benfica’s attacking talents should shine through.
Galatasaray, on the other hand, were abhorrent in last season’s Champions Leauge and I expect their only points to come against the competition’s debutants, although Astana may capitalise on the logistical handicap they inflict to pull off the odd surprise result at home.
1. Atletico Madrid
2. S.L. Benfica
3. Galatasaray S.K
4. FC Astana
#4 Group D
Now for the annual group of death. Last season’s finalists Juventus are joined by Manchester City, Sevilla and Borussia Mönchengladbach in Group D.
The Old Lady may have lost two players central to their play in Andrea Pirlo and Arturo Vidal but a trip to Turin is never easy, this a factor highlighted by the Italian outfit’s unbeaten record at home in the league last term.
Adding the robust pairing of Sami Khedira and Mario Mandzukic to their game, Juve’s style is to build from the back and make themselves difficult to beat which is exactly what they’ll do home and away in Group D, so I tip them to secure top spot.
Of the four English teams in the competition, Manchester City have the least distance to travel at just 4,842 miles and their strength in depth will be vital. Pellegrini’s reluctance to alter the tactical game plan in Europe has cost City in the past and I anticipate a tight battle with Europa League holders Sevilla for second.
The Spanish side have acted well to replace the departed Carlos Bacca with former-Juve man Fernando Llorente and, as we saw in the UEFA Supercup’s contrasting halves, Sevilla have two sides to their game – being consistently positive will prove their toughest challenge.
A young Gladbach side play efficient, high-intensity football and should record a couple of shock results but I predict Sevilla to take the lion’s share of the surprises and marginally pip Man City to second.
1. Juventus
2. Sevilla
3. Manchester City
4. Borussia Mönchengladbach
#5 Group E
Into the second half of the match-ups and group E sees holders Barcelona facing Germany’s Bayer Leverkusen, Italian runners-up Roma and Belarus’ finest, BATE Borisov.
By far the sharpest side in last season’s competition, Barcelona are looking to become the first club since the tournament’s revamp in 1992, to win back-to-back Champions League titles. A stellar strike force of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar racked up a formidable 27 goals last tournament, as the Catalan club breezed to the final before dismantling Juventus to lift the trophy.
Although their start to the season has been tentative and unconvincing, following defeat in the Spanish Supercopa, they will still remain a force and should see no difficulty in topping group E.
Bayer Leverkusen eased passed Lazio in the playoff phase (winning 3-1 on aggregate) and will undoubtedly showcase similar mental strength in the tournament’s group stage. The Germans edge Roma and BATE for experience in the competition and should perform the better of the three against Barca.
Compared to their Italian and Belarusian counterparts, Leverkusen face sterner tests each week domestically and, although handed a tough group, Roma were on the wrong end of some pretty heavy defeats last season in the Champions League including a 7-1 demolition by Bayern Munich, so memories of this tournament won’t be brilliant.
BATE are renowned for lacklustre defending, especially against Barcelona, and are probably content just having qualified for the prestigious competition.
1. Barcelona
2. Bayer Leverkusen
3. Roma
4. BATE Borisov
#6 Group F
Serving up one of the more eye-catching contests, Group F will see Bayern Munich reunited with North-Londoners Arsenal, while Olympiakos and Dinamo Zagreb complete the group.
Bayern Munich’s prime test will be keeping their squad fit – should they do this I can see them going all the way this year, but I digress. The Bavarian powerhouses will firstly need to overcome two tricky fixtures with English side Arsenal and we can all look forward to a tight tactical battle between two of the finest footballing minds in the modern game – Guardiola and Wenger.
While each side would ordinarily expect to top their respective groups with ease, the new seeding format has shaken things up a little and I anticipate the two obvious candidates to take first and second. Romping to a ten-point Bundesliga triumph in 2014/15 and looking to exploit the Gunners’ mental fragility, one would expect Bayern to win the battle at the top.
My predictions could be somewhat premature, however, given Marco Silva’s intriguing implementation as Olympiakos boss. The Greek side are now spearheaded by the manager that lead Sporting to 3rd in the Portuguese league last season, as well as the Taça de Portugal title, so this is a man renowned for success and surprise.
Despite Silva’s past heroics though, I feel dynamic Dinamo could spring the biggest surprise. Zagreb beat Skenderbreu in the playoffs and their work ethic is unrivalled and their gaffer technically acute so don’t rule out a surprise twist in the tale in Group F...
1. Bayern Munich
2. Arsenal
3. Dinamo
4. Olympiakos
#7 Group G
Chelsea’s biggest threat in Group G will no doubt be that of Julen Lotopegui’s youthful FC Porto. Dynamo Kiev’s retention of Andriy Yarmolenko would stand them in good stead also, while Maccabi Tel-Aviv will be keen to make the most of their first appearance in the Champions League since 2004/05.
Logistics could be problematic for Chelsea, who have to travel quite significantly further than any other English club at 9,184 miles in total. This aside, José Mourinho will be desperately eyeing a first Champions League title with his beloved Blues and the Londoners have had a relatively friendly draw handed to them.
Maintaining the excellent defensive record at the Bridge will be vital and Mourinho will seek redemption in the competition following the blunder of a night against PSG in the knockout stages last term, so expect the Blues to do all they can to take Group G by the scruff of its neck.
Porto may have lost the services of Jackson Martinez this summer, but they’ve made a solid start to their domestic season, accumulating four points in their opening two matches. Now regulars in the tournament, the Dragões rarely fail to make it beyond the group stage and are not averse to turning over the big boys, just remember when they gave Bayern a scare last season.
Tel-Aviv are unlikely to spoil the party, as their European dossier is bland while Kiev’s home record will be their most damaging secret weapon but expect them to secure no more than Europa League football.
1. Chelsea
2. FC Porto
3. Dynamo Kiev
4. Maccabi Tel-Aviv
#8 Group H
Last but by no means least is what I’d predict to be the most open group of the lot. Zenit are the pot one side in group H and they are joined by last season’s French revelation Lyon as well as the other debutants in this year’s edition, Gent.
Spain will have a record-breaking five representatives in this year’s competition, after Valencia toppled Monaco in a tough playoff encounter and it seems difficult to envisage any of the aforementioned bunch finishing above the Spaniards in the final group, given their perfect blend of youth and experience, steel and flair.
While Valencia’s success is based around a defence which was the third meanest in La Liga last season (conceding just 32), Zenit will be reliant on their fear factor at home. The Russian club hold the record for the lowest points tally to qualify for the knockout phase (6) though and I expect their slow, fragmented style of play to come unstuck in this group.
Fékir, Lacazette, Tolisso – all fantastic young prodigies blossimining in the Olympique Lyonnais first team. Following a drab couple of seasons in Ligue 1, Hubert Fournier guided Les Gones to a remarkable second place finish last term and this is a team brimming with confidence. They should find no problems in unpicking the likes of Zenit and Gent to finish second.
Gent are brand new to the European frame and, although I don’t expect them to be battered in their debut campaign, the inexperience will no doubt show and Belgian sides of years gone by have found the Champions League to be an unrelenting battleground.
1. Valencia
2. Olympique Lyonnais
3. Zenit
4. Gent
