Understanding the La Liga title race: Whose title is it anyway?

Two Spanish teams remain as part of the final four in this year’s UEFA Champions League after the exertions of the quarter-finals. Barcelona and defending champions Real Madrid made it through while defending Spanish champions and last year’s runners-up Atletico Madrid exited the competition.Besides the chase for continental glory, these three teams have also been jostling for the top prize in the Spanish La Liga the whole year. After having seen Real Madrid set the early pace, Luis Enrique’s Barcelona have caught up and taken over the spot at the top of the table, with their form looking truly ominous in the last few months. Atletico upset the established order by storming to the title last year, but despite their dogged resistance have been a step behind the other two and have been playing catch-up for much of the season.So who’s it going to be in Spain? If you’re a betting man/woman, which horse would you bet on and why? Is Barcelona’s supreme second half of the season going to see them reclaim the league crown and possibly set Enrique up for greater things? Are Madrid under Carlo Ancelotti going to make a late charge at the Spanish and European crowns taking out Barcelona in the process? Or are Atletico, out of Europe and with just the league to concentrate on, going to cause a major upset and retain?

#1 FC Barcelona

Remaining fixtures: vs Sociedad [12], at Atletico [3], vs Deportivo [18] (numbers in brackets indicate current league position)

Catalonia’s most famous footballing outfit have been in supreme form in the calendar year 2015. In 28 games in all competitions, Barca have suffered just two losses – both 0-1 losses – and one draw. That’s it! Those have been the only blips in what has been a remarkable run since the turn of the year. They’ve conquered all that’s come before them, the latest being an 8-0 thrashing of Cordoba. The previous weekend saw a 2-0 derby win at Espanyol, which had as good a first half as has been ever seen the whole season, following closely on the heels of their systematic dismantling of Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.

The front-line of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez has been akin to a sharp piercing arrow that has shown the ability to get through any defence. Each of them were on the score sheet once again in Barca’s midweek La Liga win, a 6-0 home thrashing of Getafe. Messi and Suarez bagged a couple each while Neymar had one. It was a performance that was so good that even Enrique couldn’t help falling over himself in praising his players.

"I don't remember another match in which we saw so many spectacular goals," Enrique, who is in his debut season, told a news conference. "When the team is this effective it is unstoppable."

Barcelona's last 10 fixtures (all competitions) via WhoScored

Their 8-0 victory last night over Cordoba was an emphatic statement of intent and shows that they are hungry to reclaim the La Liga crown.

Two of Barca’s remaining fixtures are at the Camp Nou where they have won 36 of their last 39 league games and their schedule looks relatively easy. Their sternest challenge will come in their clash against Atletico at the Vicente Calderon as the champions will look to go down fighting.

It will be on the back of their second leg encounter against Bayern Munich though and the result of that tie could have a sway on the team’s mindset going into the game.

But overall, things are looking good for Enrique’s men as they are clearly the form team in Spain and in Europe as the final bend comes around. You would be wise to bet on Messi and co. celebrating a debut league crown for their manager in four games’ time. It is mathematically their title to lose.

#2 Real Madrid

Remaining fixtures: vs Valencia [4], at Espanyol [9], vs Getafe [13] (numbers in brackets indicate current league position)

A late Javier Hernandez goal finally broke the Atletico resistance after Madrid had huffed and puffed to try and bring down their city rivals over 180 minutes. The lone goal of the tie was enough though to ensure that last year’s champs will be part of this year’s final four as well.

As a result, like Barcelona, Madrid too will have engagements in Europe with a resurgent Juventus in their way. However, one glance at the fixtures tells you that Madrid have a tougher list on their plate than Barca with two top-10 teams to play, including Valencia (currently 4th). Valencia are separated from Sevilla by just two points and will be jostling for that final Champions League spot and, as a result, will have something to play for.

Real Madrid last 10 fixtures (All competitions) via WhoScored

Almeria were brushed aside quite comfortably as Real strolled to victory in their latest encounter that featured a stunning Rodriguez volley.

Real, too, have two of their three remaining matches at home where they have been very good. They’ve scored at least 2 goals in 30 of their last 32 home matches in La Liga while winning 14 of the last 15 at home.

Despite being just two points behind leaders Barca, Real have been winning, but have looked unconvincing at times. They’ve also had a lot more losses. In comparison to Barca’s two losses, Madrid have lost six times and drawn a further two games. Two of these losses have been to fellow contenders Barca in the ‘El Clasico’ and that horrid 0-4 loss away at Atletico.

Their BBC front-line has been misfiring and while Luka Modric and James Rodriguez’s returns did bring about some much-needed impetus, they still sometimes struggle to break down their opponents.

Modric though is out currently and they are also without the services of the influential Karim Benzema up front, while Gareth Bale is also sidelined. They will need everyone to be in prime shape if they are to come through this more testing schedule.

Their hard-fought 3-2 win over Sevilla would have given them some much-needed confidence, and will stand them in good stead for the games ahead. And it may still not be enough, as after Real’s last home win against Almeria

“We’re not sure Barca will lose points, but we are confident we can win the remaining games,” Ancelotti said after the final whistle, according to AS.

However, owning to the head-to-head advantage over Barcelona is an added advantage for them if at all the teams end up tied, given the Catalan team is to lose a match with Real capitalising on it.

In La Liga, the head-to-head rule comes into play if two sides are to be drawn at the first place,and Real Madrid have the upper hand since they have beaten Barcelona 3-1 this season despite losing out 2-1 at Camp Nou because of an extra goal.

#3 Atletico Madrid

Remaining fixtures: at Levante [15], vs Barcelona [1], at Granada [19] (numbers in brackets indicate current league position)

Could there be a surprise? With 11 points off the leaders, can Atletico retain the title they won last year in a dramatic fashion after having been behind for so long?

Now that they’re out of Europe, they won’t have the added fixtures either. The problem for Diego Simeone’s team has been their struggle to score goals with their defence remaining stout. Magical Frenchman Antoine Griezmann is enjoying a fantastic debut season with 22 goals and 6 assists in all competitions. But, they’ve struggled to score at times. That’s why, they’ve drawn far too many games including 6 in their last 12, five of which were in the league.

Atletico Madrid's last 10 fixtures (all competitions) via WhoScored

Fernando Torres scored the only goal in their last triumph, a tough 1-0 win away at Villareal.

Two of their remaining games too are on the road, thereby ensuring that Atletico have the least favourable schedule of the three teams. But the all-important clash against Barcelona is at home and could prove to be decisive in the final scheme of things with the result proving important to either of the three teams’ title hopes.

Right now, it’s a straight two-horse race between Barca and Real with Barca favourites to reclaim the crown. Whether there are any surprises in store for us, we will have to wait and see.

It does look certain that barring a major slip-up at the top, Atletico would be handing their trophy over to a new champion. But despite being on their way out, they may well have something to say about the destination of this year’s title. They lock horns against Barcelona on the 17th of May in a pivotal fixture; a fixture everyone’s eyes will be on as we try and decipher the destination of this year’s La Liga title.

It went down to the final game last time round between Barcelona and Atletico and this year could turn out much the same.

UPDATE: Atletico Madrid are now officially out of the title race.