UFC 190: Preview and predictions

For the first time, the Women’s bantamweight championship will be defended outside the United StatesThis Sunday, for the first time in the history of the promotion, the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship will be defended outside the shores of the United States as the dominant champion, ‘Rowdy’ Ronda Rousey, takes on number 7 ranked contender Bethe Correia in the main event.Besides the title fight, the main card has 6 additional fights. There will be legends on display, a number 1 contender bout for a shot at a title and up and comers trying to make a name for themselves. Below, we preview the main card, which aside from a dominant champion and a pumped up challenger, could be a last hurrah for several Brazilian legends.

#1 Jessica Aguilar vs. Claudia Gadelha

Claudia Gadelha will be looking to get a rematch against Joanna

The winner of this fight will be next in line for a shot at the reigning women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Jessica Aguilar, making her UFC debut, is riding a 5 year, 10 fight undefeated streak. On the other hand, Claudia Gadelha’s only professional loss came in her last fight, back in December, against Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

This probably is the most exciting fight on the card. Gadelha is a grappling expert who has spent 36% of her total fight time on the ground (third highest behind Patrick Cummins and Ronda Rousey). However, she has never managed to knock down an opponent with her hands and will try to take Aguilar down and keep her there as quickly as possible.

Aguilar doesn’t have the ground game to match Gadelha and it isn’t easy to keep Gadelha on her feet. Even Joanna had a lot of trouble with that. Jessica Aguilar was the best female in her weight class outside the UFC and owns a win over former strawweight champion Carla Esparza. Her two wins over legendary women’s fighter Megumi Fujii, though controversial, warrant her a title shot should she get passed Gadelha. Aguilar’s biggest strength is how well rounded she is and even though she will try to keep the fight standing, she is very solid on the ground. She is also very durable and very intelligent. Factors that will work in her favor the longer the fight goes.

Despite all her positive qualities, it’s hard to imagine Aguilar grinding out a win like she usually does. Gadelha is undeniably stronger on the ground and even managed to keep her fight against Joanna even when they were on their feet (not an easy task considering Joanna’s stand up is probably the best in MMA). This just isn’t a good match up for Aguilar. Though she has earned the right to fight the best in the business, it’s difficult to see her emerging with a win this Sunday.

Prediction – Claudia Gadelha via Unanimous Decision

#2 Soa Palelei vs. Antonio Silva

Legendary Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva could be fighting to save his UFC career

Silva is on a 4 fight losing streak. Palelei on the other hand has lost just once in his last 13 fights. Neither of them are in the prime of their careers anymore. Yet, despite a mismatch between ageing fighters, this promises to be a highly exciting fight.

Silva could be fighting for his UFC career. It’s hard to imagine him recovering from a 5 fight losing streak. At the age of 35, his best years are probably behind him, though it’s impossible to say that these days looking at what Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski are doing. Silva’s condition however, seems to be worsening and one worries about what will happen if he gets another beating. Yet Silva always poses the threat of landing a big punch and scoring a big win.

Palelei is closing in on 40. Yet, he possesses imposing strength most viciously displayed in his knockout of Bob Sapp. Despite being 12-1 since Daniel Cormier submitted him close to 5 years ago, with the exception of Sapp and perhaps Pat Barry, there aren’t any big name victories for Palelei to talk about. He has managed to stop all opponents in his post Cormier run and his only defeat was when Jared Rosholt grinded out a decision.

This fight has the makings of a barn burning slugfest. Both fighters like to keep in on the feet. Palelei has the bigger punching power and a very good ground game to back it up. He’s more than able to hold his own on the ground though don’t expect him to look to take the fight there. Silva is surprisingly nimble for a man of his size and though he packs a lot of power, power is not what has helped him ground some of the greatest heavyweights of all time. Even though Palelei has more power, his options are limited. Silva has a stronger arsenal standing up and better ability on the ground.

Prediction – Antonio Silva via Unanimous Decision.

#3 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Stefan Struve

This could be the last time we see Big Nog in action

The legend against the giant. Big Nog is entering the twilight of his MMA career, aged 39 and riding back to back defeats to Roy Nelson and Fabricio Werdum. The devastating KO at the hands of Nelson is indicative of where he is at in his career. It is painful at times to watch someone as accomplished and with as stories a career as Big Nog being fed to young rising stars looking to make a name off him.

That pain is occasionally eradicated when he rolls back the years and dominates an opponent like he did against Brendan Schaub. With high knockout power and lethal submissions to call upon, Big Nog can never be counted out of a fight.

Stefan Struve, on the other hand, will be looking to get his UFC career back on track with his first win since 2012. Like his fabled opponent, Struve is riding his own 2 fight losing streak after being knocked out by Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem. Hes also battling back from a series of injuries that has limited his octagon time. Standing 7 feet tall, Struve will have the reach advantage and though he is well versed with submissions, trying to grapple with someone the caliber of Big Nog is a bad idea.

Both of these veterans are battle worn and have weak chins. Add to this the fact that both also possess knock out power and you can almost give the judges a fight off. Its difficult seeing this fight go the distance, if for nothing else than the fact that neither will be able to eat too many punches. Both of these fighters can be stopped as their past fights have shown.

Had this fight happened a few years ago, there would have been a lot more excitement behind it. Still, it is always good to watch a legend like Big Nog to see if he can pull off one more win and a giant like Struve to see if he can live up to the early potential. A fight with Struve may be a fight too far for the former Pride and UFC heavyweight champion

Prediction Stefan Struve via TKO, Round 1

#4 Dileno Lopes vs. Reginaldo Vieira

Lopes has an undefeated record of 11-0

The first of the two TUF Brazil 4 finales. This one in the Bantamweight division. Reginaldo Vieira had lost a fight in the first round and was eliminated from the competition. However, after Giovanni Santos left the competition due to an infection, and his replacement Leandro Higo also pulled out with an injury, Vieira was reinstated and given a berth in the semi-final where he defeated Bruno Korea via submission, setting up an unlikely showdown in the final against Dileno Lopes.

Lopes has an undefeated record of 11-0 and was arguably the best fighter on the most recent season of TUF Brazil. Lopes’ hands are a lot tougher than Vieira’s and is better at stuffing takedowns than his opponent is.

Vieira, on the other hand, has significantly better submission offense and if he can take Lopes down, he will be aggressive. That being said, Lopes has excellent submission defense and even on the ground, the fight won’t be easy for Vieira. His only chance though, is to try and submit Lopes. Lopes is no scrub on the ground and is more than capable of scoring a submission win himself.

Prediction – Dileno Lopes via Second Round TKO.

#5 Fernando Bruno vs. Glaico Franca

Glaico Franca

The TUF Brazil 4 Lightweight finale. Bruno grinded out 2 decision wins en route to the final. Franca, on the other hand, submitted both opponents during his run to the finale.

Don’t let that fool you though, Bruno is a better grappler than Franca is. Offensively and defensively, he is the stronger fighter on the ground. Aged 33, and 9 years older than Franca, Bruno has more experience that Franca does who had only ever fought twice before entering the Ultimate Fighter. Bruno will look to ground Franca and either go for the submission or wrestle him for 3 rounds and grind out yet another decision victory.

Glaico Franca has the heavier hands and has the ability to knock down good defenders. His youth will probably give him the advantage with cardio, though if Bruno out wrestles him, that advantage will disappear fast. While he has good submissions, it isn’t good enough to submit someone of Bruno’s level and his best bet will be to keep the fight standing up.

Franca may be able to knock fighters down but his knockout power is below average and Bruno has an excellent jaw. Franca has good submission ability but Bruno’s resistance to submissions is a notch above. Franca also doesn’t have the experience to outscore Bruno with the judges.

Prediction – Fernando Bruno via Submission, Round 3

#6 Antonio Rogerio Nogueria vs. Mauricio Rua

Shogun will be looking for a repeat of the performance from 10 years ago

The co-main event features the other Nogueria brother, Little Nog a legend in his own right taking on fellow Brazilian and fellow legend, former UFC Light heavyweight champion Mauricio Shogun Rua in a rematch 10 years in the making. Shogun won that night 10 years ago in a fight for the ages during the height of Pride. Much like some of the other fights on this card though, both competitors are ageing and the winner will be the one who can make the most adjustments during the fight.

Mauricio Rua has returned to training with Rafael Cordeiro, who this year has had 2 fighters from his gym, Kings MMA, become UFC Champions. Rafael Dos Anos and Fabricio Werdum. Shogun has declined from a lethal knockout artist to a brawler in recent years and his jaw is no longer as sturdy as it once was. With his return to his Muay Thai roots under Cordeiro, it could signal a Frank Mir-esque career revival provided those battle-worn knees hold up.

Shoguns opponent Little Nog was a real prospect at one time. However, injuries have plagued his career and he seems lost in the light heavyweight wilderness. Little Nog will look to maintain distance on the feet to avoid the Muay Thai expertise of Shogun and take the fight to the ground where he has the advantage being a superior grappler. Little Nog also has the faster hands and will look to land jabs to score points. Getting into a brawl with someone like Shogun makes no sense for Little Nog.

Though Little Nog will be trying to grind out a decision, despite having the quicker hands, he does not have the superior boxing. If there is one aspect of Shoguns game that has been getting better as the rest of him deteriorates, it is his boxing. A return to Chute Boxing at Kings MMA will only further help him. He may not be able to knock Little Nog out but he will be able to outbox him.

Prediction Mauricio Rua via Unanimous Decision

#7 Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia

Rousey and Correia ready to go to battle

The odds for this fight are so heavily stacked in Ronda Rousey’s favor that you’ll have a better chance of seeing a double rainbow than you will of seeing a new champion being crowned. Rousey’s average fight time is 3 minutes 27 seconds, largely due to Miesha Tate taking her to the third round. Rousey also has a spectacular 80% takedown success and while the challenger Correia has an 80% success rate with regards to takedown defense, none of her opponents were Ronda Rousey.

Correia earned her title shot by beating 2 of Ronda’s closest friends and teammates, Shayna Baszler and Jessamyn Duke, who have a combined 1-5 record in the UFC. Against Baszler she showed off her submission defense getting out of a triangle hold and against Duke she displayed her take down defense stuffing Duke’s judo throws.

Great practice for Ronda Rousey’s strengths, except for the fact that neither Baszler nor Duke are anywhere near the level of Ronda Rousey. Correia has strong hands and good takedown defense but it will take a lot more than that to beat the champion. She may be fighting in her home country but don’t be surprised if the Brazilian crowd roots for Ronda Rousey.

Unlike her fight against Cat Zingano, Rousey has said she will take her time with Correia in an attempt to inflict maximum damage. This fight has taken on a personal tone after Correia said Rousey will want to kill herself after she loses her belt. Considering how suicide has affected Rousey’s life, her comments were not in the best taste. If there is one woman on this planet you don’t want to anger, it’s Ronda Rousey.

There doesn’t seem to be anything in Correia’s locker that would have us believe that she could trouble Rousey. In the fight business, you can never say for certain how a match up will go. Nobody expected Matt Serra to beat Georges St. Pierre, but things happen that often cannot be explained. It would take a minor miracle for Correia to beat Rousey.

The fight will last longer than Rousey’s two previous fights, for no other reason than Rousey’s determination to punish Correia who, while undoubtedly brave and unquestionably talented, looks more like a deer entering the lion’s den than a fighter with an even chance.

Prediction – Ronda Rousey via Submission, Round 1