UFC 192: Preview and Predictions

Cormier-Gustafsson headlines a stacked card at UFC 192 this SundayUFC 192 takes place this Sunday from Huston, Texas. This will be the fourth time the UFC has held an event in Huston and the first time since UFC 166. The main event will be for the Light heavyweight championship between champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Alexander Gustafsson. The two were initially expected to face off at UFC 191, however the fight had to be postponed due to Cormier’s knee injury. The co-main event will feature a Welterweight bout between former champion Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley, with the winner likely to be next in line for a shot at the winner of the championship bout between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit expected to take place in January.The other fights feature another Light heavyweight bout between Ryan Bader and a returning Rashad Evans. Shawn Jordan will face Ruslan Magomedov in the heavyweight division and Jessica Eye will square off against Julianna Pena in the women’s bantamweight division.

#1 Jessica Eye vs. Julianna Pena

Pena will look to solidify herself as the next in line for the title shot

Pena was the logical next opponent for Ronda Rousey after the champion beat Bethe Correia. However Holly Holm got the shot and Pena got booked against Jessica Eye.

Eye has gone 1-2 in her last 3 fights being beaten by Miesha Tate and Sarah Kaufman. This is make or break for her. A win puts her back in the conversation for a shot at Ronda Rousey, a loss may spell the end of her UFC career. Eye looked good against Tate in what was a back and forth war, however she enters the fight against Pena as a massive underdog.

Eye does a nice job of working the fast jab from the outside but as her fight against Tate showed, her opponents are more than willing to eat a few of her shots to get on the inside to hit power punches of their own. Her head movement against Tate was sorely lacking in quality and Tate landed easy hail makers.

It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, Eye has improved since that Tate fight. If she can avoid getting clipped with the big punches, she can use her technically sound boxing and takedown defence to put on a Holly Holm-esque display and win the fight.

Eye’s opponent Julianna Pena is similar to Tate though not as technically well rounded. However given her young age, that can be developed with time and experience. Pena cannot let the fight stay at range for any considerable period of time. She is the bigger woman and needs to stifle Eye’s speed advantage and grind her down.

Pena will also consistently be looking to shoot the legs and score a takedown on Eye. Even if she doesn’t execute the shoot, the mere threat of it can leave Eye open for the overhand right to land.

Pena is the hottest prospect in the division and is potentially one win away from Ronda Rousey. Eye on the other hand will be hoping to stop the rise of this bludgeoning superstar to solidify her status as a top prospect in this division. This could be Pena’s breakout performance and at the end of the day, she is too well rounded for Eye and looks to be on her way to a title shot.

Prediction: Julianna Pena via TKO, Round 2

#2 Shawn Jordan vs. Ruslan Magomedov

Magomedov will look to enter the upper relm of the heavyweight division with a win

Two TUF vets face off in the heavyweight division. Shawn Jordan has been consistent against lower level fighters during his career and often beats them in impressive fashion. However, whenever he has had a step up in competition, things have not gone according to plan for him.

Magomedov is a decision machine. He is yet to finish an opponent in his UFC career, but has looked impressive throughout his time inside the octagon. A win against Jordan would earn Magomedov a shot at a top contender.

Magomedov is one of the finest fighters in the heavyweight division. He is an excellent range striker, capable of putting together nice combinations and is very well conditioned. He does however, lack the one punch knockout power that most of the heavyweights carry with them.

Shawn Jordan prefers to work from close to his opponent and use his athleticism to dictate the direction of the fight. Magomedov is excellent at maintaining distance and preventing a close range fight. This makes Shawn Jordan his ideal opponent.

Expect Magomedov to throw a variety of kicks and straight punches, look to circle and prevent Jordan from forcing him to the fence.

On the other hand, Shawn Jordan is outmatched at range and will have to force the fight to the cage. He needs to find a way to get inside, cut out the distance and use his heavier hands to hurt Magomedov.

Forcing a punch-for-punch fight will benefit Jordan greatly. A few clean, powerful punches will also make scoring a takedown a lot easier for Jordan. As good as Magomedov is as a defensive wrestler, Jordan is a vicious takedown artist.

At the end of the day, Shawn Jordan is the perfect match up for Magomedov. The Russian will not need to adjust his game at all, and this is a fight that is tailor made for his strengths.

Prediction: Ruslan Magomedov via Unanimous Decision

#3 Ryan Bader vs Rashad Evans

Evans (left) returns from a 2 year lay off against Bader (right) who looks to get a title shot

In a sport that goes through radical technical changes and faces the introduction of new ideas and methods of fighting every 6 months or so, taking a 2 year break from the sport is never a good thing. We have not seen Rashad Evans fight since 2013 and the major question surrounding this fight is which Rashad will we get?

Bader for his part has put together a 4 fight win streak and is looking better than he has ever looked before. His current streak is longer than any current Light heavyweight in the top 15. This is not the fight Bader wanted and was expected to face Cormier for the championship. He expressed surprise that he was passed over for the title shot given his current form.

However, a win against Evans would secure him as next in line for Cormier and the title (provided Jon Jones doesn’t decide to come back before that). While a 4 fight win streak is impressive, a big name scalp like Rashad Evans is exactly what Bader needs to cap things off and put him in the best possible position for a title shot.

Bader has been doing high intensity cardio drills with the goal of setting a fast pace in the fight undoubtedly on his mind. Given Rashad’s long layoff, Bader would dominate a high intensity, cardio centric fight.

Bader needs to put the pressure on Rashad. Aged 36, Rashad is reaching the point when most fighters begin to fall off. If that is the case, then Rashad will struggle to keep up with Bader. High pressure and a high volume of punches are the best way to tire an opponent. Bader should work heavily on both.

Despite all the work being done on his footwork and speed, Bader is still a work in progress. Rashad should look to force Bader to react to his footwork, to move the way he wants Bader to move and open up angels to get his shots in from.

The one thing Rashad does not want to do is stand and trade. He is too old for that and Bader has been in far fewer wars, meaning his chin will hold up longer. Rashad needs to use his experience to his advantage and put all that knowledge to work. He needs to score well timed strikes, stay on the outside and force Bader to reach for him.

Much like the main event this fight is heavily centred on distance management. Rashad has a big advantage in this respect. He has been working for years with Henri Hooft and can incorporate kicks into his arsenal. That, in the end, could be the difference in this fight.

Prediction: Rashad Evans via TKO, Round 3

#4 Johny Hendricks vs. Tyron Woodley

This fight is 10 years in the making

This fight seems to have been destined ever since Tyron Woodley apparently bit Johny Hendricks during a college wrestling match 10 years ago. It was March 5th, 2005 when Woodley, the number 1 seed entered the Big 12 college wrestling championship.

His opponent was Johny Hendricks. Hendricks scored a quick point and held his advantage until the final few seconds of the second round when Hendricks claimed Woodley bit his hand. The referee awarded Hendricks a point much to the disgust of Woodley and the some 3000 fans in attendance.

Hendricks would win the match and would go on to become a national champion. 10 years on, Woodley has not forgotten what happened and has been begging for a chance to fight Hendricks for a good number of years now.

In many ways, this is, as Firas Zahabi calls it ‘a mirror match.’ Both Hendricks and Woodley are world class punchers and world class wrestlers. The difference between them is in their technique of punching and wrestling. Zahabi himself did an excellent job of highlighting those differences in a recent YouTube video with MMAjunke.

As Zahabi rightly said, there is a lot riding on this fight. The winner will be the unofficial number 1 contender, especially given the fact that Rory Macdonald is still some way away from getting back in the cage after his epic showdown with Robbie Lawler.

Eventually though, expect Hendricks to close distance and prevent Woodley from using his explosiveness. Many are expecting this to be a Lawler – Macdonald style barn burner however, it is entirely possible that Hendricks forces this to the ground and keeps it there for the duration of the fight to grind out a decision.

Prediction: Johny Hendricks via Unanimous Decision.

#5 Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Cormier heads into his first title defence against the man that gave Jones his toughest fight

It took Daniel Cormier a couple of tries but he finally got his hands on the Light heavyweight championship. Despite what his doubters say, Cormier is the true champion and even though Jon Jones shadow lingers over the division, DC deserves to be treated as the true champion. In his first title defence, Cormier faces the man who gave Jon Jones his biggest test, Alexander Gustafsson.

For all the questions raised about DC as the legitimate champion, there are far more questions about Gustafsson as the legitimate number 1 contender. The doubts around Gustafsson carry far more weight than the doubts around Cormier especially considering he is getting a title shot coming off a loss to Anthony Johnson.

However, given the history that both these men have with Jon Jones, who could very well be making his comeback sooner rather than later, it makes sense that the UFC would book them in the title fight.

Over the years, Cormier has proven his incredible athletic ability. A world class wrestler, DC competed at 2 Olympic Games and was the Strikeforce champion before making his UFC debut. His victories at heavyweight over fighters like Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Antonio ‘Big Foot’ Silva set him apart as one of the best martial artists in the world and his domination of MMA legend Dan Henderson earned him his original Light Heavyweight championship shot.

That performance against Henderson is perhaps the greatest display of wrestling inside a UFC octagon. DC likes to get close to his opponent and grind them down until he can capitalize and score a win. However as good as he is at wrestling, DC is no slouch on the feet. He is extremely powerful for a Light heavyweight and has big time knockout power.

His height and lack of quality with his kicks can be an impediment however as they limit his options at times. He cannot fight at the distance, he is just too short and doesn’t have a reach long enough for that, therefore DC has to always try to get on the inside and in doing so could leave himself exposed to his opponent’s strikes.

The one way to overcome the height disadvantage when trying to maintain distance is elite level kicking. Unfortunately for DC however, he doesn’t have that either.

Gustafsson will be a tough match up for DC, especially when you consider how well he did against Jones. Gustafsson’s strengths lie in his boxing and footwork. He has managed to mix them both up to earn several victories in the past in dominant fashion. His wins over Jimi Manuwa, Vladimir Matyushenko and Jared Hamman are a perfect example of this.

Gustafsson also has a takedown defence of 87% which makes him well capable of stifling DC’s biggest weapon, the wrestling. However as good as that 87% takedown defence sounds, it must be noted that none of those successful defences were against wrestlers the calibre of Cormier.

In fact, the one time he faced an all-out wrestler (Phil Davis) he was dominated. He needs to use his considerable reach advantage to keep Cormier at bay. Gustafsson also needs to keep moving.

He cannot stand still and allow Cormier the opportunity to score a takedown by shooting at his legs. Jab, move, jab, move, jab until it frustrates Cormier to a point where he leaves an opening will in all likelihood be Gustafsson’s game plan.

As good as Gustafsson is at stuffing takedowns and as good as he may be at maintaining distance, eventually, Cormier will get his hands on him and grind him down. It would be tough to say that a Gustafsson win would be an upset but Cormier is the clear favourite and as good as he is, this just seems like a bad match up for Gustafsson.

Prediction: Daniel Cormier via Submission, Round 4