UFC 193: Preview and predictions

Holly Holm is Rousey’s toughest test to dateHistory will be made this Sunday when the UFC puts on its first stadium show from the Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, Australia.This will also be the first time that both women’s championships are defended on the same night. Ronda Rousey, the biggest star in MMA will put her title and undefeated record on the line against legendary boxer Holly Holm in what is her toughest stylistic matchup to date.Meanwhile, strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk faces Canadian Valerie Letourneau in the co-main event of the evening.Elsewhere, Mark Hunt and Antonio Silva will square off in a rematch of their classic fight, which famously ended in a draw. Robert Whittaker will face Uriah Hall and a heavyweight contest between Stefan Struve and Jared Rosholt rounds up the main card.

#1 Stefan Struve [27-6] vs. Jared Rosholt [13-2]

Both men are looking for not only the win but also a good performance

Stefan Struve has had a rather strange career trajectory. Despite injuries having an unchangeable effect on his journey, Struve marches on, looking to build a win streak.

Jared Rosholt is 5-1 in the UFC but has hardly captured the imagination of the masses. He may be winning, but none of his victories have been memorable.

A man with his UFC record is usually looking to make a push into the upper tier of the rankings, however, Rosholt’s name is barely whispered by most. Both fighters not only need a win, but a performance to match up too.

Struve has a reputation as a good kickboxer but surprisingly, most of his wins have been via submission. His submission prowess has allowed him to pull off some memorable wins. Struve’s biggest flaw is his inability to use his size and distance to his advantage.

Someone that tall, with that long a reach should not be getting hit as often as Struve is. Opponents have found getting on the inside all too easy and given the fact that Rosholt will be looking to take him down, Struve’s inadequacies could be brought to the forefront.

Struve has been showing signs of improvements at utilizing his range off late and will look to keep that trend going. He must take his opportunities to punish Rosholt whenever the American gets too close.

Jared Rosholt does not possess the knockout power most other heavyweights do. He usually forces the takedown and grinds his opponent out. It comes as no surprise that he isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.

However, despite the fact that he could find it easier to take Struve down than some of the other fighters in the division, Struve is very comfortable off his back and Rosholt’s ability to inflict damage will be limited. Struve is too good off his back for Rosholt to have a chance on the ground.

Instead, Rosholt needs to test Struve’s battle weary chin. Despite his lack of power, Rosholt can still do some damage.

Rosholt is still a young fighter and who constantly works on improving his abilities. A loss here will not set him too far back, a win, on the other hand, however unlikely, could be huge for his career. Struve may be a bridge too far for Rosholt, who could use this opportunity to identify areas in his game that need improving.

Prediction: - Stefan Struve via Submission, Round 3

#2 Robert Whittaker [14-4] vs. Uriah Hall [12-5]

Hall is entering his third fight in four months

Since coming off the Ultimate Fighter 17, Uriah Hall has failed to live up to the hype that surrounded him. Every time he looked like he had turned a corner, he suffered another setback.

A little over a month ago, Hall faced Gegard Mousasi in Japan. Mousasi was the favourite and was expected to be in line for a fight against a top 5 ranked fighter after Hall. However, Hall put on a show, stopping Mousasi with a jumping back kick and a flying knee to earn a performance of the night bonus.

The win has people talking about Hall finally living up to his potential and taking the next step in his career.

This will be Hall’s fifth fight this year and third in the last 4 months. Hall is a physical specimen and one of the best pure athletes in MMA today. However, he needs to make a jump mentally to get to the next level and as good as his finish of Mousasi was, he was struggling till he landed his kicks to stop the fight.

Prior to the Mousasi fight, Hall had a tendency of holding back his punches. He seemed afraid to get into a standing trade off even though it suits his style of fighting perfectly. Against Mousasi, however, he finally let his hands go and it paid off handsomely.

Hall is a second degree Karate black belt. He will look to fight on his feet. Robert Whittaker is a tough opponent who will push Hall but if Hall doesn’t hold back and backs himself like he did against Mousasi, he will have the advantage in the fight.

Robert Whittaker, on the other hand, is riding a 3 fight win streak, his latest triumph being against Brad Tavares in May. Whittaker has an unorthodox style that can be difficult to read, but he isn’t one to go for takedowns.

He too is a Karate black belt, like his opponent, however, has landed only 37% of his strikes as opposed to Hall who has an accuracy of 54%. This coupled with the fact that Whittaker absorbs more significant strikes per minute that Hall does works against the Australian.

However, Whittaker has landed more significant strikes per minute (4.83 to Hall’s 3.21) and has a better strike defence percentage (66% to Hall’s 56%). Whittaker is giving up a 6-inch reach advantage and given how athletic Hall is and how much he likes to mix up his striking, that is not a good thing.

Whittaker will have to get on the inside and force Hall to scramble. Anything else will be playing to Hall’s strengths.

Prediction: - Uriah Hall via TKO, Round 3

#3 Mark Hunt [10-10-1] vs. Antonio Silva [19-7-1]

Hunt vs Silva is a rematch of their 2013 classic

In 2013, Mark Hunt and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva battled for 5 round to earn a hard fought draw. It was an instant classic, regarded by many as the fight of the year. 2 years on, the two face off in the rematch everyone has been waiting for.

Since the first fight, Mark Hunt has won just once. He needs to stop the bleeding off back to back defeats and get his career back on track. A loss to Silva could cause people to question his place on the UFC roster.

At 41 years of age, he isn’t exactly in his athletic prime anymore. His record of 10-10-1 isn’t the best either. A defeat to Silva and he will have more losses than wins in his MMA career. There aren’t too many UFC fighters who have a negative record and still warrant a place in the promotion.

Silva, on the other hand, is fresh off his win over Soa Palelei at UFC 190 which stopped a losing streak of his own.

Statistically, Hunt and Silva are almost indistinguishable. The only number that varies between the two is Hunt’s superior significant strikes per minute. In virtually rest of the stand-up aspects (significant strike accuracy, strike defence) they are close to identical.

Silva does possess an 8-inch reach advantage however Hunt does have experience of fighting, and winning against bigger opponents, like Stefan Struve.

Silva will look to do what he did so well in the opening rounds of his previous fight against Hunt. Be patient, maintain distance and land as many leg kicks as possible. Hunt was visibly hurt from Silva’s leg kicks the last time out and was being out thought by Silva before he landed a right hand that rocked the big Brazilian.

From then on, the fight descended into a beautiful chaotic mess where the intangibles like heart and will played a bigger role than technique did. Silva will look to maintain distance. Keep hunt from getting from the inside and keep him from getting within range to launch his big shots.

Silva packs a powerful right hand. Look for him to circle to his right to give him an espace he needs to rotate his hips for the right hook much like he did against Travis Browne. Silva has the undeniable advantage on the ground.

If the fight does get to the ground, he will find it easier to dictate the pace and direction than he will standing up against a kickboxing legend like Hunt.

Mark Hunt likes to stand and trade. A former K-1 champion, odds are his chin will hold up longer than anyone he is going to run into and he has a pair of hands that can stop anyone he is up against in their tracks.

His punching power is the great leveller. Despite Silva’s huge reach advantage, Hunt is always just one punch away from picking up a win. Hunt does have the better eye for picking the big shots and the better head movement to avoid eating too many shots.

His fight against Roy Nelson, his last win, is the best example of his elusive nature. Hunt is also an excellent counter puncher. A skill that was well displayed in his fight against Cheick Kongo.

Despite his ferocious power, Hunt picks his spots very well. He doesn’t just swing for the fences but rather tries to find an opening and is patient till he does get one. He will look to close the distance and apply pressure to score a knockout win or earn enough points for a decision.

Prediction: - Mark Hunt via Unanimous Decision

#4 Joanna Jedrzejczyk [10-0] vs. Valarie Letourneau [8-3]

Joanna goes in as favourite against Valarie

Joanna Jedrzejczyk is on the cusp of superstardom. Already a favourite among hardcore fans, a dominant display on Sunday could make Joanna a household name.

The reason why people love Joanna so much is because of her fighting style. A 6 time Muay Thai world champion, Joanna always wants to keep the fight standing up. There have been times when her opponents have fallen to the ground but Joanna steps back and makes them get to their feet.

Joanna’s MMA career has been a tale of carnage. Her last two performances were so brutal that neither of her opponents have had another fight since. While most people associate Joanna with ruthless aggression and untamed chaos, in reality she is a technician of the highest calibre.

Joanna will spend the entire fight narrowing the distance, not to box, but to force her opponent to move where she wants her to go. She’s like a lioness stalking her prey. Joanna will continuously get in her opponent’s face and shut down all the space around, till she has her victim backed up against the cage.

This is when she goes to work. Everything before, all the punches and kicks are just a precursor. Joanna’s game plan revolves around getting her opponent backed up against the cage. From here she will let loose a barrage of punches, forcing her opponent to bend her head, close her eyes and get her hands up to block.

But the brilliance of Joanna is that even this is just a setup. Once her opponent’s eyes are closed, is when the real beating comes. That is when he hits her with the big money shots.

Against Jessica Penne, Joanna forced Penne to defend her head with a series of jab-cross combinations. Once Penne had her eyes shut and hands up, Joanna would unleash a hook around the outside, circumventing Penne’s defences and rocking her.

The video above shows Joanna’s signature flurry striking perfectly (notice it at 4:25, 11:30, 13:15 and 14:08). Every time she flurries, she follows it up with a big shot. It is this style of fighting that has earned Joanna the label of the next Chuck Liddell.

The challenger, Valarie Letourneau is also a standup specialist. However, unlike the champion, Valarie prefers boxing to Muay Thai. Valarie has a significant size advantage in this fight, having competed at Bantamweight prior to making the move down to strawweight.

However, this is about the only advantage she has. Stylistically, this fight doesn’t seem to suit Valarie. To utilize the full range of her boxing, she will need to close the distance. However, this plays perfectly into Joanna’s strategy of backing people against the cage.

Training with American Top Team will perhaps help Valarie in the wrestling department and she can use her superior strength to drag Joanna to the ground. However once on the ground, her grappling is limited.

The other problem with getting too close to Joanna is the speed disadvantage that Valarie faces. Joanna arguably has the fastest hands in MMA. At close range, Joanna will be able to land 3 punches for every 1 that Valarie can get in.

There is a reason that Valarie Letourneau is the biggest betting underdog on this card and given how badly her style matches up in this fight, do not expect an upset. Nothing is impossible, but Valarie Letourneau becoming the new world champion is highly improbable.

Prediction: - Joanna Jedrzejczyk via TKO, Round 2

#5 Ronda Rousey [12-0] vs. Holly Holm [9-0]

Rousey has never been tested against a world class boxer like Holm before

After an outcry by fans, the UFC signed Holly Holm to the promotion. Holm made her UFC debut in February of this year, defeating Raquel Pennington via split decision.

Holm had already established herself in MMA by becoming the inaugural bantamweight champion at Legacy Fighting Championship. This, to add to the 19 boxing world championships she held.

She may have made her name in boxing, but Holm started out in kickboxing during her school years. It is her kickboxing that Holm will have to rely on against Rousey. In her career, Holm has been excellent at keeping grapplers off her by maintaining distance.

However with no reach advantage, Holm will have to move a lot more to keep Rousey at bay. Watch for her using low kicks every time Rousey shoots for the takedown or tries to get too close for comfort. For Holm, the longer the fight stays off the ground the better.

Her southpaw stance will also be a cause of concern for Rousey, who will not find it comfortable to box with Holm even if she were orthodox. However Holm’s grappling is sorely lacking, especially compared to her Olympic medal winning opponent.

If Rousey closes the distance and uses a pressure game, Holm will struggle. If the fight goes to the ground, it will be a matter of when, not if Rousey can finish her off. Holm will also need to do what Miesha Tate did in the rematch against Rousey. Tate would use her arm to push Rousey away to avoid getting hip to hip.

Rousey structures her fight around getting into the hip to hip position. It allows her to execute her judo throws and there isn’t any MMA fighter, male or female, in the world with better judo than Rousey.

The difference between Tate and Holm though is that Tate has a background in wrestling while Holm does not. However, Holm can use her boxing to keep the distance. She did that fantastically against Pennington in her previous fight.

She denied the clinch and the under hooks and used her hand to push Pennington’s hip away to avoid leaving an opening for a takedown. Holm trains in the same gym as Jon Jones who has experience with this kind of fight. Against Daniel Cormier, Jones did a lot of the things Holm will need to in order to avoid being dragged to the ground.

Another interesting note from the Tate fight was how Rousey looked in the later rounds. She had worn herself out and it wasn’t until Tate made a mistake that Rousey managed to drag her to the ground.

Rousey’s aggressive style means she breaks down faster and had Tate been a better boxer she may have been able to maintain distance better and score points. Boxing is a thing Holm knows a lot about. This is her best path to the championship. Force the fight into the later rounds, maintain distance, score points and get a decision win.

Ronda Rousey for her part, will be defending her title for the 3rd time this year. She has been at her dominant best with both fights combined lasting less than a minute. In her victory over Correia at UFC 190, Rousey showed how much her striking has improved.

However, she would be well advised not to try that against Holly Holm. Bethe Correia is a knockout specialist, but Holly Holm is a technician. Rousey will have to get past the kicks, on the inside and rag doll Holm to the ground. If Rousey does make it to the inside, she can dictate the flow of the fight.

However, getting her hands on Holm and taking her to the ground are two very different things. Holm has an astounding 100% takedown defence success rate. None of her opponents though were proficient in judo. While training at Jackson’s MMA has helped her protect herself against elite wrestlers, judo is another monster.

Rousey likes to fight in an almost chaotic environment. Her aggressive style has caught a lot of her opponents off guard and forces them to fight at a pace they are not comfortable with. The downside of this style though is that as the fight wears on, Rousey will begin to tire.

In a lot of ways, Holm is the polar opposite of Rousey. Make no mistake about it, Holly Holm is Ronda Rousey’s biggest test since the Miesha Tate rematch. However, while this fight may be longer than usual for Rousey, the result will likely be the same.

Prediction: - Ronda Rousey via Submission, Round 1