UFC 196: 5 factors that will determine the outcome of Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

McGregor and Diaz will face off in the main event of UFC 196. Image Courtesy UFC.com.MMA’s most transcendent male star takes on one of its most enigmatic figures at UFC 196’s main event, with Conor McGregor fighting Nate Diaz in a welterweight clash that could throw up plenty of fireworks.Ordinarily, the replacement of a super fight with a non-title bout would make for a sizeable buzzkill for UFC fans. But when the McGregor vs Rafael dos Anjos lightweight fight was canceled due to the Brazilian suffering a broken foot (or a bruise, depending on who you ask), the UFC moved quickly to bring in fan favorite Diaz.This has created a showdown between two of the UFC’s most charismatic figures and prolific trash-talkers. The pre-fight press conference was expectedly entertaining, with McGregor’s verbose, quick-witted barbs contrasting nicely with Diaz’s more visceral, street-wise jabs. But this is the UFC and not the WWE, so the true intrigue will lie in the actual fight itself.There’s no question that McGregor is the superior all-round fighter, and is in the midst of the kind of lengthy purple patch that the erratic Diaz has never enjoyed. But the Stockton, California man is an experienced head and a tricky opponent who will pose a different set of challenges to any of McGregor’s previous foes. This bout will see McGregor experiencing a reach disadvantage for the first time in his UFC career. He will also be up against a man with superior grappling skills and an arsenal of crippling submissions. You’d expect a combatant with his fight I.Q. to find a way to negotiate these obstacles, but it won’t be a walk in the park.In the past year, McGregor has crafted an aura of invincibility that makes it difficult to comprehend that he can lose a fight. Diaz will Look to shatter that aura in a fight that will be determined by five key factors.

#1 Physical conditioning

Diaz’s cardio will be put to the test by McGregor’s movementImage Courtesy UFC.com.

Having taken the bout at only two weeks notice, Diaz comes in without any kind of focused fight camp behind him. However, UFC president Dana White claimed that the 30-year-old was training for a triathlon before being called up to UFC 196, and is “in phenomenal shape”.

Like older brother Nick, Nate Diaz is known for his excellent cardio and ability to go the distance in fights. The more rounds he can negotiate, the more the odds will shift in his favor against an opponent who has only fought beyond two rounds once in his UFC career thus far.

Weight is another intriguing factor in a fight that features the UFC’s featherweight champion taking on a lightweight stalwart in a welterweight bout. This is McGregor’s debut outing at welterweight, while Diaz has fought at 170 pounds before. You might think that this gives Diaz a clear advantage, but it’s not quite that simple.

Despite making his name in the 145-pound featherweight division, McGregor is understood to have a natural “walking weight” closer to 170 pounds. This means he has had to endure substantial weight cuts to compete at featherweight.

By not having to cut much weight this time around, McGregor will be able to eat better and train harder in the days leading up to the fight. But will the resulting gains in power and energy come at the loss of some of the speed that is so central to his game?

For his part, McGregor seems unperturbed: “You’ve seen him on the salads, now see him on the steaks.”

#2 Striking

Both fighters will be keen to unleash straight left-hand strikes. Image Courtesy UFC.com.

McGregor’s original opponent Rafael dos Anjos is a fighter who likes to close the distance on his opponents, forcing them to eat flurries of punches. Diaz prefers to utilize his long reach to deliver darting blows before retreating from range and repeating the process.

However, McGregor boasts a strong jaw and sharp head movement, which he will look to set himself up for counter-blows, particularly if Diaz is sluggish while backtracking.

Diaz’s front foot-heavy stance sometimes gives the illusion that he is closer to his opponents than he really is, something that could frustrate McGregor’s strikes early on. The Irishman might have to get creative if he wants to be pro-active rather than rely on his monstrous counter-blows.

Neither fighter minds enduring a few hits to get within range, so there could be some entertaining stand-up slugging.

McGregor offered his customary pre-fight prediction fight this week, highlighting the left-hand uppercut as the blow that will put Diaz away. Time will tell if Mystic Mac’s predictive and winning streaks continue.

#3 Grappling

The triangle choke is one of Diaz’s stock submissions. Image Courtesy UFC.com.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, over half of Nate Diaz’s career wins in the UFC, have come by way of submission, so he should be comfortable dueling McGregor on the ground – if he can figure out how to get him there.

Despite having a strong ground game, Diaz isn’t particularly adept at take-downs, and McGregor is unlikely to risk taking the fight to the ground of his own accord.

Even if McGregor does go for an unexpected takedown, he will have to be careful to avoid one of Diaz’s crippling chokes, which the taller fighter is more than capable of delivering even when on his back.

McGregor may not be renowned for his wrestling prowess, but he did a good job remaining composed on his back when facing Chad Mendes, one of the UFC’s top wrestlers. During that bout back in July, McGregor suffered some damage on the mat but picked his moment to force the fight back onto his preferred stand-up position, setting himself up for an eventual victory.

Overall, while McGregor is no schmuck on the ground, his grappling game hasn’t been tested or proven to the extent of Diaz’s. The Stockton man should hold the edge in this department, but it will be fascinating to see what McGregor pulls out of his hat if the fight hits the mat.

#4 Kicks

McGregor using the spinning back-kick vs Chad Mendes. Image Courtesy UFC.com.

McGregor will look to use the leg kick to disrupt Diaz’s rhythm and command of range, bringing him into striking distance.

This is exactly what Rafael dos Anjos did when he faced Diaz back in December 2014; on that occasion, the Brazilian delivered a barrage of leg kicks that ultimately provoked Diaz into altering his stance, exposing him to left-hand strikes. Diaz’s flat-footed stance makes him vulnerable to this form of attack, and McGregor will note the leg kick as an effective tool to set Diaz up for his stock left-hand strikes.

McGregor could also use kicks as weapons unto themselves, with the spinning back-kick to the body being one good option.

Diaz has never been much of a kicker himself, but of late has added kicks to his repertoire, effectively using both leg and head kicks in his impressive recent victory over Michael Johnson.

#5 Mental strength

Expect McGregor and Diaz to mix up physical and verbal assaults. Image Courtesy UFC.com.

McGregor continues to give off his air of supreme confidence in the build-up to the fight, but will doubtless be under some pressure. In the event that he suffers a handy defeat, it will be difficult to justify an immediate lightweight title challenge in his next outing, assuming dos Anjos returns from injury.

The last thing the Notorious one wants to do at this point is to go back and defend his featherweight belt immediately; so he will be under pressure to gain a convincing victory in order to bolster his claims for a lightweight or even a welterweight title challenge at UFC 200.

On the contrary, Diaz is the underdog and goes into this fight with little to lose but plenty to gain in the form of the biggest pay cheque of his career so far.

Additionally, McGregor has gone into every one of his high-profile bouts thus far as the undisputed verbal provocateur, but this will not be the case when he faces up to Diaz.

Should Diaz land a good shot or two, he will not hesitate to taunt McGregor and perhaps even resort to one of his humiliating Stockton Slaps. If McGregor lets this get to him, he could play right into Diaz’ hands.

Ultimately, McGregor’s mental toughness and sky-high self-belief should stand him in good stead even if things get a little rough, but Diaz will do his best to wind up the Irishman in what should be an intriguing physical and psychological contest.