Air Force vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 10 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The Air Force Falcons (9-7) will visit the Colorado State Rams (9-8) on Tuesday night. Air Force has dropped three straight games, all to start conference play. They most recently got roughed up by Utah State, 77-65. Sophomore and leading scorer Jake Heidbreder had a game-high 19 points, while Ethan Taylor posted 14, but the Falcons shot seven free throws compared to 27 by USU. The Falcons have yet to score over 70 points in four straight games.

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Air Force vs. Colorado State

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
Air Force Falcons	+9	o133	+350
Colorado State Rams	-9	u133	-455

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

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Colorado State snapped a four-game losing streak with a 79-57 home victory over Fresno State. All-MWC honoree and leading scorer Isaiah Stevens had 16 points, three rebounds, six assists, and a steal in the win. John Tonje, Patrick Cartier, and Jalen Lake also scored in double-digits, but the game's highlight was the Rams keeping Fresno to under 60 points. It was the first time they had held an opponent to under 73 points since their mid-December win over Saint Mary's.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Air Force Falcons own a 0.99 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 211th in the nation. Colorado State has the 57th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.96. Air Force does well in all key stats, but shot-making, where they are in the 53rd percentile. They are also 170th in the country in the open three rate metric. Conversely, the Rams are in the 99th percentile in defensive shot-making (359th in the country), but are in the 18th percentile in defensive shot selection, suggesting CSU has been unlucky this season.

The Falcons own high-frequency numbers in half-court, off-screen, cut, catch & shoot three-point, midrange, and post-up shot types. They are in the top 100 in all those shot types except post-up, with a 0.82 SQ PPP (282nd in the country). Conversely, the Rams are in the top 40 in defending in the post and shots off of screens, but struggle with defending catch & shoot three-pointers (1.04 SQ PPP).

The Colorado State Rams have a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ, the 128th-best mark in the country. Air Force has posted a 1.02 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 201st in the country. The Rams are in the top 40 in spacing and shot-making. The Falcons are in the 82nd percentile in shot-making (308th in the country), yet rank 42nd in defensive spacing (11th percentile).

Colorado State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: transition, P&R ball screen, off-screen, cut, catch & shoot three-pointers, and midrange. Air Force has done well against shots off of screens but has struggled a bit defending in transition.

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Air Force vs. Colorado State Prediction

The Rams and Falcons run two of the slowest-paced offenses in the country. Air Force clocks in at 349th in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric, while CSU is at 244th. The Falcons have done enough on defense to the point where they should be able to frustrate a relatively solid Rams offense. However, the Air Force offense lacks a lot of firepower, hopefully balancing CSU's defensive shot-making and shot selection. Grab the under and expect a slow-paced slugfest between these two MWC squads.

Prediction: Under 133 (-110)

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