Alabama vs. UConn Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 25 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The (#20) Uconn Huskies (6-0) will duke it out with the (#18) Alabama Crimson Tide on Friday in the Semis of the Phil Knight Invitational. UConn dominated in the first round, blowing out the Oregon Ducks 83-59. Triston Newton, a transfer from East Carolina, scored 23 points while adding four rebounds and six assists. Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins, holdovers from last season's team, also scored in double-figures. The Huskies let it fly from beyond the arc, hitting 17-of-37 from deep. Grad transfer Joey Calcaterra hit 75% of his threes.

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Alabama vs. UConn Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Alabama Crimson Tide	-1.5	0148.5	-115
UConn Huskies	+1.5	u148.5	-105

All Lines Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

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Alabama came out victorious over Michigan State 81-70. Freshman star Brandon miller dropped 24 points and nine rebounds on 57% from three. They doubled up "Sparty" in points off turnovers and hit 44% from the field. Jahvon Quinerly, a star of last season's team, had 10 points in 19 minutes. He is still working his way back from injury, but figures to be a crucial part of the offense as we advance.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

ShotQuality data has this contest as a one-score game. UConn is more balanced, while Alabama has the better offense. The Crimson Tide is 8th in the country with a 1.15 adjOFF SQ. They are in the 90th percentile or better in shot selection and spacing while being in the top ten in the country in rim & three rate at 95.3%. UConn is stout in all key defensive metrics except for the free throw and open three rate, which is near 50%. The Tide has a healthy 40.6 FTR, but only a 16.2% open three rate.

Bama's highest shot-type tendencies are catch & shoot threes, pick & roll ball screens, and finishing at the rim in transition. They are the best in SQ PPP with mid-rangers and shots off-screens. Meanwhile, UConn is the best team in the country on the half-court regarding SQ PPP. They match up well with "Bama" considering they are great in the pick & roll.

The Huskies offense isn't as explosive as the Tide, but they still have a 1.11 adjOFF SQ. Also, unlike Alabama, UConn does almost everything well on offense. They are in the 94th percentile or better in shot selection and spacing while being in the top 100 in all other key offensive stats. The Crimson Tide's defense is in the 1% in shot selection and rim & three SQ PPP. In addition, they struggle with spacing and FTR, both strengths of UConn.

Uconn is balanced between half-court sets and runs in transition. Their best SQ PPP shot types are finishing at the rim (1.26), half-court (1.07), and isolation (1.00). "Bama" is extremely tough against opponents in all those categories. Their deficiencies come at the perimeter, something UConn has done well, like when they hit 17 threes in their last game.

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Alabama vs. UConn Prediction

Everything about the game screams a toss-up. However, the ShotQuality data is on par with the Vegas lines, leaving little room for error in the prediction. Although Alabama is more athletic and has a better offense, UConn has balance and veteran leadership. Alabama houses a young core and will continue to build into a tough out in the NCAA tournament, but UConn stood well in the early part of the season.

Prediction: UConn +1.5 (-110)

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