Arizona State vs. SMU Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 7 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) will travel to Dallas, Texas, to take on the SMU Mustangs (3-5) on Wednesday Night.

Arizona State is rolling, winning six straight, including conference wins over Colorado and Stanford. Desmond Cambridge Jr., a two-time MWC All-American transfer from Nevada, dropped 19 points as the Sun Devils used a late rally to topple Stanford 68-64 last Sunday. Devan Cambridge, Desmond's brother and a transfer from Auburn, added 12 points on 5-of-7 shooting.

Former blue-chip prospect and Michigan Wolverine Frankie Collins also sat in double-digit scoring and splashed a crucial three late to give the Devils a comfortable lead.

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Arizona State vs. SMU Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Arizona State Sun Devils	-5.5	0136.5	-215
SMU Mustangs	+5.5	u136.5	+176

All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000 No Sweat First Bet

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SMU have lost three of their last four, concluded by a 69-68 loss to then-winless Jackson State. The Mustangs were hit hard with heavy roster turnover this offseason, including the loss of head coach Tim Jankovich to retirement.

However, losing at home to a basement dweller in the SWAC was unforeseen. The starting backcourt for the Mustangs, Zach Nutali and Zhuric Phelps, combined for 44 points on 17-of-32 from the field, but the rest of the team struggled to make a positive difference. Louisville transfer Samuel Williamson shot 29% from the floor and turned it over three times in the loss.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions

Arizona State

Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjOFF SQ = 1.13 (112th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.13 (20th)

Shot Selection = 94th Percentile (21st)

Free Throw Rate (FTR) = 41.1% (28th)

Shot Making = 38th Percentile (215th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 84.3% (263rd)

Open 3 Rate = 17% (265th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Cut = 1.38 (11th)

P&R Ball Screen = 1.03 (68th)

Transition = 1.41 (73rd)

Isolation = 0.94 (121st)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.94 (298th)

Off-Screen = 0.93 (306th)

Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjDEF SQ = 1.04 (244th)

Shot Making = 5th Percentile (19th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.02 (67th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 85.1% (92nd)

FTR = 33.3% (235th)

Spacing - 61st Percentile (241st)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Cut = 0.94 (6th)

Post-Up = 0.74 (11th)*

Off-Screen = 0.94 (68th)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.02 (164th)

Isolation = 0.92 (194th)

Transition = 1.37 (254th)

* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.

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SMU

Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjOFF SQ = 1.01 (184th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 84.1 (265th)

Shot Making = 15th Percentile (307th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Off-Screen = 1.03 (111th)

Cut = 1.17 (112th)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.98 (160th)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.02 (186th)

Midrange = 0.90 (121st)

Transition = 1.36 (121st)

Post-Up = 0.89 (279th)

Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjDEF SQ = 1.03 (221st)

Shot Making = 6th Percentile (24th)

Open 3 Rate = 12.4% (50th)

Spacing = 58th Percentile (229th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.91 (8th)*

P&R Ball Screen = 0.93 (60th)

Transition = 1.27 (116th)

Post-Up = 0.85 (125th)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.09 (129th)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.02 (135th)

Cut = 1.10 (157th)

Midrange = 0.78 (212th)

Off-Screen = 1.01 (232nd)

* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.

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Arizona State vs. SMU Prediction

I like the makeup of this Devils squad, but the matchup could be better for them, especially on the road. With Arizona State rolling and SMU reeling, they will eventually pull away late, but 5.5 points is still a lot. I will ride the under here, given how tough Arizona State has been playing and how poorly SMU has been shooting.

Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)

$1,000 No Sweat First Bet