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The (#9) Arkansas Razorbacks (11-1) will travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU Tigers (11-1) on Wednesday night. Arkansas are on a seven-game winning streak, beating SDSU and Oklahoma before dominating UNC Asheville 85-51. Arizona State transfer and 2021-22 All-Pac-12 honoree Jalen Graham scored 16 points in 19 minutes off the bench against Asheville. Leading scorer and Wichita State transfer Ricky Council IV, freshman phenom Anthony Black and Joseph Pinion all scored in double-figures.
Missouri transfer Trevon Brazile and top recruit Nick Smith missed the contest due to injury. Brazile is out for the season with a torn ACL, while Smith is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Arkansas vs. LSU Betting Odds
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LSU are also on a winning streak, winning six straight since suffering their lone loss to Kansas State in the Cayman Islands. They most recently held off a second-half surge from ETSU in a 72-68 home win. Leading scorer and 2021-22 OVC POY K.J. Williams went bonkers, dropping a 28-point, 12-rebound double-double with three assists and three steals. Mississippi State transfer Derek Fountain was the only other Tiger in double-digit scoring. Illinois transfer Adam Miller and N.C. State transfer Cam Hayes, both top recruits from the 2020 recruiting class, combined for only 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Arkansas Razorbacks own a 1.09 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 45th in the nation. LSU have the 107th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. Arkansas do well in all key stats, but the rim and three rate, spacing, and shot-making. They are in the 14th percentile or worse in spacing and shot-making, while ending up 307th in rim and three rate. Conversely, the Tigers are in the 19th percentile in the defensive shot-making metric but in the 74th percentile in defensive spacing and 203rd in defensive rim and three rate.
The Razorbacks own high-frequency numbers in finishing at the rim, isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition shot types. They are in the top 50 in all those shot types except isolation, with a 0.90 SQ PPP (211th in the country), and midrange, with a 0.76 SQ PPP (211th). The Tigers are in the top 50 in all those categories except finishing at the rim, midrange, and transition. They have been inferior in transition, ranking 336th in the country.
The LSU Tigers have a 1.02 AdjOFF SQ, the 144th-best mark in the country. Arkansas have posted a 0.88 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 5th in the country. The Tigers are in the top 150 in all categories except for ending up 198th in the rim and three rate stats. The Razorbacks are in the bottom 150 in defensive shot selection, spacing, free throw rate, and open three rate.
LSU are in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, midrange, off-the-dribble three, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. On the other hand, Arkansas are in the bottom 150 in defending all those shot types except cut, where they own a 0.98 SQ PPP (16th in the country), and post-up, where they own a 0.86 SQ PPP (126th).
Arkansas vs. LSU Prediction
Although LSU are a sparkling 11-1, they have had one of the easiest schedules of any Power 6 team in the country and have received scares from ETSU, Wofford, and Arkansas State. The Tigers have all the talent to compete in the hyper-competitive SEC and former Murray State bench boss Matt McMahon has the pedigree to take LSU deep into playoff contention. They still need to dominate games to prove they are ready to compete for an SEC title this season. However, they hung tight with Kansas State and beat Wake Forest, two teams that have proven they have NCAA tourney aspirations this season. LSU are sure to score points at home against a banged-up Arkansas team. Trust the Tigers to win at home.
Prediction: LSU +4.5 (-110)
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