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2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 18 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
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Saturday January 7th, 2023 8:15pm
Tennessee Titans (7-9), (8-7-1) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-2-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS TENN+6 ½
LW, TENN QB Joshua Dobbs was in a tough situation. He was starting the game on TNF @HOME vs DAL. Dobbs had just been signed because QB Ryan Tannehill is out and QB Malik Willis has been ineffective. Dobbs didn’t do too bad of a job w/o RB Derrick Henry in the backfield. Dobbs spread the ball around to 10 different receivers and did the best job he could. It was just a matter of DAL needing a win to keep pace and beating whoever they were playing. DAL actually gave TENN some chances by turning the ball over 3x. The score was DAL 17-13 going into the 4th qtr but TENN couldn’t make the necessary stops and couldn’t convert on OFF. The final score was DAL 27-13. LW, JAGS were all over HOU. This game was over at the half as JAGS were leading 21-0. Whatever HOU was doing the last three weeks to show that they had some competitive spirit was washed away in this game. HOU did nothing in the 1st half except punt the ball 5x, turn the ball over on downs 1x and fumble for a returned td by JAGS. JAGS came out in the 2nd half and scored another td to make the score 28-0. The JAGS DEF also made some nice stops. JAGS rushed for 169yds, 3tds on 29 carries. Leading the way was RB Travis Etienne who rushed for 108yds, 1td on 9 carries. He was unstoppable.
L15 JAGS(H) vs TENN, JAGS 7-8 SU & 8-7 ATS. L27 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 14-13 ATS. L31 TENN vs JAGS, DOGS 15-16 ATS. L15 TENN vs JAGS, 4-11 SU & 5-10 ATS. JAGS 2-0-1 ATS va AFC SOUTH in JAN. JAGS 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. JAGS 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. JAGS 8-1 ATS @HOME off DD SU div ROAD win. JAGS 8-9 ATS after HOU. JAGS 4-7 ATS as a FAV 7>pts. JAGS 9-0 ATS as a FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 9-1 ATS @HOME vs div opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. TENN 0-2 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. TENN 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. TENN 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. TENN 9-1 ATS as a DOG vs opp off BB SUTAS wins.
TENN is pretty much done. They were cruising along nicely at 7-3 and everything fell apart. The teams that TENN were playing going forward picked up on TENN’s weaknesses and exploited them. TENN couldn’t get anything going on OFF and their DEF would get shredded and couldn’t make stops. The JAGS have had a resurgence and Lawrence is looking like the QB that they envisioned. RB Etienne is looking good with explosiveness and he takes a lot of pressure off of Lawrence. JAGS actually have something to play for in this game and the place should be rocking with excitement. The fact that JAGS are in the playoffs if they beat TENN should have the crowd excited. TENN is starting Joshua Dobbs @QB and he didn’t do that bad a job vs DAL on TNF. I like the JAGS in this game to win but, I think it will be closer than the spread suggests because TENN also has something to gain as well. This is a revenge game for them having lost in wk 14 @HOME to JAGS, 36-22. TENN was embarrassed there. By the way, RB Derrick Henry will be well rested and ready for this game. If Dobbs can spread the ball around like he did vs DAL, we will have a game here.
THE PICK: TENN+6 ½
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Sunday January 8th, 2023 1:00pm
NE Patriots (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (12-3), (6-8-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (2-5) ATS NE+7 ½
LW, for BUFF @CINNCY on MNF, we all know what happened to CB Damar Hamlin and we are all hoping that he recovers and is ok. The game was suspended and at this time the NFL has not decided what to do about the suspended game. LW, NE was @HOME -2 ½ vs MIA. MIA started QB Teddy Bridgewater and he got injured. Skyler Thompson came in @QB. NE needed this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. This game went back and forth but because of a missed extra point by NE that was the difference in the cover but NE won the game, 23-21. It was a sloppy game by MIA and NE needed to take full advantage and distance themselves in this game. NE missed some opportunities to fully execute. However, a win is a win.
L24 BUFF(H) vs NE, BUFF 4-20 ATS. L15 BUFF(H) vs NE, BUFF 2-13 SU & 3-11-1 ATS. L31 NE vs BUFF, NE 24-7 SU & 18-11-2 ATS. NE 1-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NE 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. NE 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NE 2-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG in JAN. NE 29-17-2 ATS as a RAOD DOG. NE 14-5 ATS after MIA. NE 14-4 ATS w/revenge vs .400>conf opp. BUFF 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. BUFF 2-0 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. BUFF 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BUFF 19-15 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts.
We don’t really know how BUFF is feeling for this game but unfortunately they have to play. Some players may be up for this game and others may have their minds on Damar Hamlin. But BUFF needs this game definitely if they have any shot at the #1 seed in the AFC. Also, there are players that have incentives tied to their contracts. This is normal in every sport. There are probably players on BUFF that need this game to get their money and it is completely understandable. For NE, they need this game to still be in the playoff hunt so they have a reason to play hard. Considering the emotions that the BUFF team and its coaches are going through this week, I would have to take NE with the points here. NE will be ready to go because NE HC Bill Belichick knows how to prepare his team under any circumstances.
THE PICK: NE+7 ½
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Sunday January 8th, 2023 1:00pm
NY Jets (7-9), (8-8) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS NYJ+1
LW, MIA was +2 ½ @NE. I liked NE and even though MIA played a sloppy game with turnovers and losing their QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIA still managed to keep it close. Bridgewater left the game with a hand injury and Skyler Thompson came in and rallied the troops. With NE leading 23-14, he led MIA on a td drive very late in the game that made the score 23-21. MIA got no closer but because of a missed extra pt by NE, MIA got the back door cover. I liked NE in this game laying the points and they took advantage of miscues by MIA. LW, NYJ looked flat @SEA. I thought with QB Mike White coming back to start it would get the team going in the right direction. NYJ still had a shot at a playoff spot but they looked lost for most of the game and the DEF couldn’t make any stops. SEA ran away with is game, 23-6. This game was 17-6 at the half and MYJ could do nothing in the 2nd half. SEA rushed over NYJ for 198yds on 38carries. The usually stingy NYJ DEF had no answers for the SEA OFF.
L15 MIA(H) vs NYJ, MIA 8-7 SU & 6-9 ATS. L15 MIA vs NYJ, ROAD 17-9 ATS. L31 NYJ vs MIA, DOG 19-11-1 ATS. L24 NYJ @MIA, NYJ 17-7 ATS. NYJ 9-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYJ 0-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. NYJ 0-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NYJ 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYJ 5-11 ATS off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-16 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. NYJ 10-3 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. MIA 1-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. MIA 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. MIA 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. MIA 9-15 ATS off div ROAD gm. MIA 6-11 ATS @HOME off div ROAD gm. MIA 3-7 ATS as a HOME FAV off div ROAD gm. MIA 10-4 ATS @HOME w/div revenge. MIA 6-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV w/revenge. MIA 5-3 ATS as a div HOME FAV 5<pts. MIA 0-9 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV).
Both of these teams have had monumental collapses this season. It looked promising for NYJ when they were 7-4 and there was talk about the playoffs. But since then, the OFF has fell apart with struggles just moving the ball up and down the field. In the last two games the OFF has 0tds. The DEF was non-existent LW @SEA. But also in the losing streak, the usually reliable NYJ DEF hasn’t made the necessary stops to get the opposing OFF off the field. The QB situation is a big question mark even if NYJ Robert Saleh says that they are behind QB Zach Wilson 100%. He is clearly not the answer. MIA has had their struggles this season as they have been very streaky. Plus, the health of Tua Tagovailoa is a big question as he has suffered two concussions this season. The DEF for MIA has a lot of questions as well. They disappear at times. Also, the run game has not been utilized as much to take pressure off of whoever is the QB. The RBs in MIA can get the job done when called on, they just need to know that they are in the game plan. The O-LINE also needs to be addressed. This SUN, MIA will be looking to see if the swelling in Teddy Bridgewater’s finger has gone done. If not, Sklyer Thompson will be in there and recently signed Mike Glennon will back him up. I like MIA here as NYJ have cashed out and MIA still has something to play for and will get the W in this game. These two teams played in wk 5 @NYJ and the first play for scrimmage, Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game by NYJ. There is a revenge factor here for MIA and I like their chances.
THE PICK: MIA-1
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Sunday January 8th, 2023 4:00pm
Dallas Cowboys (12-4), (10-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-8-1), (8-8) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (4-4) ATS WASH+6
LW on TNF, DAL was a ROAD FAV-10 @TENN. DAL QB Dak Prescott made it interesting by throwing 2INTS and losing a fumble. DAL was only up 17-13 in the 4th qtr but pulled ahead for the 27-13 win. It was a win but it wasn’t convincing. TENN was without RB Derrick Henry and TENN still managed to make this game close for three qtrs. LW, WASH was still in the playoff hunt but WASH HC decided to start Carson Wentz @QB instead of Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke was the one that got them to the verge of the playoffs. Anyway, Wentz threw 3INTs that should never have been thrown and he turned a WASH 7-3 lead into a CLEV 24-10 win. The WASH DEF couldn’t make stops and couldn’t stop CLEV QB Deshaun Watson from throwing td passes. He threw three. WASH has a lot to build on and they just need a few players to round out the edges and they will certainly be in the thick of things in 2023.
L15 WASH(H) vs DAL, WASH 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS. L27 WASH vs DAL, 14-13 ATS. L27 WASH vs DAL, DOG 14-12 ATS 1 PICK’EM. L17 WASH vs DAL, ROAD 10-7 ATS. DAL 2-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. DAL 19-11-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 15-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DAL 2-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DAL 2-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DAL 1-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. DAL 27-7-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 3-11 ATS as a conf FAV off an SU non-conf win. DAL 7-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU loss. DAL 20-9 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL 5-7-1 ATS off SU win vs <.500 div opp w/revenge. DAL 10-1 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. WASH 2-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. WASH 17-16 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. WASH 8-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. WASH 2-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. WASH 0-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. WASH 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. WASH 11-9 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 3-13 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 4-11 ATS off BB Su losses vs non-div opps. WASH 10-15 ATS off BB Su losses. WASH 3-13 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 11-11 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 9-3 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. WASH 8-2 ATS w/revenge vs >.500 div opp off DD SU win.
WASH has stated that they will be starting rookie Sam Howell @QB this SUN vs DAL. Wentz will be inactive with Taylor Heinicke backing Howell up. Howell has not taken a snap in a game this season. Welcome to the NFL kid. DAL is still playing for seeding and could get a higher seeding if PHILLY loses and MINN & SF lose. DAL has to play lights out and then wait and see. But if they lose, it will not matter. WASH had their chances but WASH HC Ron Rivera gambled with QB Carson Wentz and lost. The WASH DEF also couldn’t stop CLEV last week and are probably going to play not to get hurt since they are officially out of the playoff picture. They have some good players for 2023. As for DAL they need to stay focused and strong for this game. Since they are well rested, I see DAL playing their A-game getting ready for the playoffs. Lay the points here and take DAL.
THE PICK: DAL-6
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Sunday January 8th, 2023 8:20pm
Detroit Lions (8-8), (11-5) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ GB Packers (8-8), (8-7-1) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (4-4) ATS DET+4 ½
LW, GB@HOME -3 vs MINN was a slaughter by GB. I had that game picked very early in the week because GB Aaron Rodgers was getting payback for wk 1 @MINN. This was my BEST BET of the WEEK on TWITTER & my big pick on the “Rick Kamla Show” on the Bettor Sports Network. Sometimes you just know what is going to happen. The GB DEF and special teams were the stars of this game for GB. GB had a kickoff return for td by Keisean Nixon for 105yds & the GB DEF had a PICK6 of MINN QB Kirk Cousins that made the score GB, 14-3 in the 1st qtr. Cousins had 3INTs & 1lost fumble that were turned into 28pts. GB QB Aaron Rodgers wa 15/24 for 159yds & 1td. The run game for GB was the start on OFF as they rushed for 163yds, 2tds on 33carries. It was 41-3 in the 4th qtr before MINN scored 2dummy tds to make the final score 41-17. LW, DET@HOME -5 ½ took it to CHI who had nothing to play for. The DET OFF was the star here as they rushed for 265yds, 2tds on 39 carries. The DET DEF also gave up 200 yds rushing but mostly to CHI QB Justin Fields who rushed for 132yds on 10carries. DET QB Jared Goff was near perfect throwing 21/29 for 255yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. This game was DET 24-10 at the half and DET was not going to be denied. The DET DEF stopped CHI cold in the 2nd half forcing CHI to punt 5x and having them turn the ball over on downs. DET won easily 41-10. The DET DEF also sacked Fields 7x.
L15 GB(H) vs DET, GB 12-3 SU & 7-7-1 ATS. L31 GB vs DET, GB 21-10 SU & 14-16-1 ATS. L22 DET vs GB, HOME 13-8-1 ATS. L21 DET vs GB, FAV 11-9-1 ATS. DET 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DET 3-0 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. DET 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. DET 0-8 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp DET 6-14 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 2-12 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs .333>opp. DET 5-13 ATS after div HOME gm. DET 8-10-1 ATS after CHI. DET 4-12 ATS as a DOG <10pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 2-8 ATS as a div DOG <10pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 8-8 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. GB 13-6-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. GB 3-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. GB 3-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. GB 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. GB 3-7 ATS as a FAV 4>pts after scoring 40>pts. GB 30-11-1 ATS after a div gm. GB 22-7 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 17-3 ATS as a FAV <8pts after div gm. GB 10-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SUATS win. GB 12-5-2 ATS off SU div HOME win. GB 12-10-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs div opp. GB 11-0 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU win. 8-0 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win.
This is another payback game for GB & Rodgers. These two teams met in wk 9 @DET. GB was a ROAD FAV-3 ½. Rodgers had one of his worst games of the season with 3INTS and probably his worst game of his career. Two of his INTs were picked off in the endzone. Also, the GB OFF couldn’t get in sync was looking out of it all game, while the DET DEF was looking great with the stops and the INTs. From that game on, it was a turnaround for DET. Since that time GB has gone with more of a run game and less of a passing game. The DEFs for both teams are widely different and DET’s DEF woes need to be addressed in the off-season. DET #32 TOT DEF w/#30 PASS DEF & #29 RUSH DEF. While GB #18 TOT DEF w/#4 PASS DEF & #26 RUSH DEF has steadily improved and came on like gangbusters LW vs MINN. The PASS DEF has been the difference in games for GB in their quest to turn around their season. Both of these teams are fighting for the playoffs but, this is just another one of those games that Rodgers can’t wait to play as it is another revenge game just standing in the way of GB and the playoffs. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: GB-4 ½
THE BEST BET OF THE FIVE: GB-4 ½
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Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
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