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On Thursday night, the Weber State Wildcats (5-7) will visit the BYU Cougars (9-5) in Provo, Utah. Weber has won three straight, highlighted by a 75-72 upset over Utah State on Monday. Weber closed as a 16.5-point underdog and trailed by 14 at the break but used a 46-point second half to shock Utah State and hand them their first loss of the season. Leading scorer and 2021-22 All-Big Sky honoree Dillon Jones had a team-high 16 points, nine rebounds, and four assists in the win. The Wildcats used a team effort on offense to secure the win, with Illinois State transfer Steven Verplancken, redshirt sophomore Dyson Koehler, Fresno State transfer Junior Ballard, and senior KJ Cunningham all scoring in double-figures.
BYU vs. Weber State Betting Odds
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BYU is also streaking a bit, winning four straight after starting December with two egregious home losses to South Dakota and Utah Valley. The Cougars beat their interstate rival Utah 75-66 before dismantling Lindenwood 90-61 on Tuesday. WCC All-Freshman Fousseyni Traore scored 21 points on an 8-of-13 shooting performance against Lindenwood. Arkansas transfer and 2020 ESPN top recruit Jaxson Robinson added 12 points, while Detroit transfer Noah Waterman had 13. Leading scorer Rudi Williams came off the bench for the fifth straight game, scoring 13 points in 20 minutes of action.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Weber State Wildcats own a 0.96 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 266th in the nation. BYU has the 32nd-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.92. Weber State does average or poor in all key stats but shot making, where they are in the 89th percentile, and free throw rate (35.3%). Conversely, the Cougars are 158th in defensive shot-making and 311th in defensive FTR.
The Wildcats own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointers, half-court, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointer, off-screen, and P&R shot types. However, they are in the bottom 150 in all those shot types except half-court, with a 0.99 SQ PPP (165th in the country), and off-the-dribble three-pointers with a 1.02 SQ PPP (124th). Conversely, the Cougars are top 90 in all those categories except in isolation (0.90 SQ PPP) and off-the-dribble three-pointers (1.01 SQ PPP).
The Cougars have a 1.05 AdjOFF SQ, the 92nd-best mark in the country. Weber State has posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 113th in the country. The Cougars are 55th in rim and three rate and 138th in shot-making. Big Sky's Wildcats are in the 78th percentile in defensive shot-making and 71st in defensive rim and three rate.
BYU is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. However, Weber State is in the bottom 50 in defending all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointers, where they own a 1.02 SQ PPP (179th in the country), and post-up, where they own a 0.86 SQ PPP (118th).
BYU vs. Weber State Prediction
BYU loves to get out and run in transition, yet they have had mediocre results. A date with a poor Weber state defense should help better those shots and create easier basket opportunities for the Cougars. Weber State should also be able to live at the charity stripe during this game. They are one of the better teams in getting to the line, while BYU is 311th in defensive free throw rate. Both these teams have a slight edge on offense which should result in many points in this interstate matchup.
Prediction: Over 143.5 (-110)
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