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The Cal Poly Mustangs (7-6) will head west on Saturday night to take on the Hawaii Warriors (10-3). Cal Poly has won two straight, most recently taking care of Cal State Northridge at home 67-57.
Junior Kobe Sanders dropped a career-high 17 points in the win while leading scorer and three-year starter Alimamy Koroma added 13. Cal Baptist transfer Chance Hunter scored 11 points, and former Wyoming Cowboy Trevon Taylor had ten.
Cal Poly vs. Hawaii Betting Odds
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Hawaii has won five straight home games while taking care of some quality teams like Washington State and Pepperdine during the run. In their recent win over UC Davis, the Warriors exploded for 49 second-half points.
JoVon McClanahan had a season-best 23 points and six rebounds, while two-year starter Bernardo da Silva had a 12-point, 10-rebound double-double. However, 2021-2022 All-Big West guard Noel Coleman and former Texas Longhorn Kamaka Hepa struggled, combining to go 3-of-11 from the floor.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Cal Poly Mustangs own a 0.92 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 331st in the nation. Hawaii has the 164th-best AdjDEF SQ at 1.01. Cal Poly does poorly in all key stats, but in free throw rate, where they are 121st in the country. Conversely, the Warriors rank inside the top 200 in all key categories and 91st in free throw rate.
The Mustangs own high-frequency numbers in half-court, P&R ball screen, cut, catch & shoot three-point, off-the-dribble three-point, midrange, and post-up shot types. However, they are in the bottom 100 in all those shot types except off-the-dribble three-point, with a 1.01 SQ PPP (144th in the country). Conversely, the Warriors are in the top 100 in all those categories except at the perimeter, midrange, and post-up.
The Hawaii Warriors have a 1.01 AdjOFF SQ, the 164th-best mark in the country. Cal Poly has posted a 0.97 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 101st in the country. The Warriors are in the top 200 in all key categories, with the exception of placing them in the 7th percentile in spacing. The Mustangs are in the 54th percentile in defensive spacing.
Hawaii is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: half-court, isolation, finishing at the rim, and post-up. However, their best SQ PPP numbers come in shot types where they do not have high-frequency percentages. The Mustangs, on the other hand, is in the top 50 in defending all those shot types except half-court, where they own a 1.00 SQ PPP (147th in the country).
Cal Poly vs. Hawaii Prediction
Hawaii is on a great stretch of winning basketball right now, but CPU has some talent on their roster. They are playing tough and match up well on defense against the Warriors.
They should be able to keep this a low-scoring contest, suggesting the Mustangs can hang with Hawaii or not get blown out in the late-night matchup. Roll with the Mustangs to cover the spread on the road.
Prediction: Cal Poly +10.5 (-110)
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