Colorado State vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 4 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The Colorado State Rams (8-7) will visit the Nevada Wolf Pack (12-3) on Wednesday night. Colorado State is reeling, losing three in a row and five of their last seven. They led by as many as 14 points against San Jose State last Saturday, but collapsed late in the second half, leading to a 78-70 defeat. Star guard Isaiah Stevens played well, posting a 24-point, 10-assist double-double, while John Tonje, Patrick Cartier, and Isaiah Rivera scored in double-figures.

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Colorado State vs. Nevada

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
Colorado State Rams	+4.5	o142.5	+165
Nevada Wolf Pack	-4.5	u142.5	-200

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

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Nevada has won four in a row, most recently defeating Air Force on the road, 75-69. Oregon State transfer Jarod Lucas, a hero from the 2021 Elite Eight squad, dropped a season-high 28 points in the win. 2019 top recruit Will Baker and guard Kenan Blackshear also sat in double figures.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Colorado State Rams own a 1.02 AdjOFF SQ this season, which is suitable for the 142nd in the nation. Nevada has the 133rd-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.99. Colorado State is average to below average in all key stats, but in spacing and shot-making, where they are in the 77th percentile or better. In addition, they are also 74th in the open three rate. Conversely, the Wolf Pack is in the 49th percentile or worse in defensive spacing and shot-making while average in defensive open three rate.

The Rams have high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointers, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 60 of all of those shot types except in P&R ball screen and transition, falling just inside the top 150. Conversely, the Wolf Pack are average to below average in defending all of those shot types except in transition, where they own a 1.25 SQ PPP (94th in the country).

The Nevada Wolf Pack has a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ, the 55th-best mark in the country. Colorado State has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 65th in the country. The Wolf Pack is in the top 20 in shot-making and free-throw rate. The Rams are one of the worst teams in the country in the defensive shot-making metric, placing them in the 99th percentile. However, they are better at the defensive free-throw rate, ranking just inside the top 100 in that metric.

Nevada is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, half-court, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and post-up. They have excelled in all of those shot types this season. On the other hand, Colorado State is in the top 30 of defending in the post and off-screens, but is average in defending the different shot strengths of Nevada.

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Colorado State vs. Nevada Prediction

The Rams have burned bettors against the spread twice in a row, but again, the numbers need to be lowered to not take on CSU with the points. ShotQuality suggests the Rams are due for some positive regression, even on the road against a tough Nevada squad. They may not win, but they should be able to hang on, and it would be shocking to see them at least not battling in the game's final minutes. Take the Rams with the points and hope they can finally get back to playing their winning style of basketball.

Prediction: Colorado State +4.5 (-110)

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