Dayton vs. UNLV Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 15 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The (#21) Dayton Flyers (2-0) will take on the UNLV Rebels (2-0) in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Dayton swept last week's non-conference home schedule, cruising past Lindenwood 73-46 and edging out the SMU Mustangs 74-62. The clash with the Mustangs was a nail-bitter before the Flyers scored the final 11 points to secure a double-digit victory. A-10 All-Freshman DaRon Holmes had 20 points, seven rebounds, and three assists to go with five blocks. Toumani Camara had a career-high 18 rebounds in the win. The Flyers were a surprise team last season, going 24-11 despite the team makeup being all first- and second-year students. Everyone returns for frontman Anthony Grant except rotational guard Elijah Weaver. Although the Flyers are 2-0, they have been without the services of Koby Brea and Malachi Smith, two critical components to last year's team. Both are day-to-day.

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Dayton vs. UNLV Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Dayton Flyers	-4	0131	-189
UNLV Rebels	+4	u131	+155

All Lines Provided by BetRivers Sportsbook

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

UNLV swept last week's non-conference schedule, albeit against Southern and Incarnate Word. They have had significant turnovers on their roster going into the new season. Four of the team's top five scorers are via the transfer portal, highlighted by former Oklahoma Sooners guard Elijah Harkless. Despite the loss of co-stars Bryce Hamilton and Donovan Williams, some rotational and depth pieces have remained, including sharpshooter Jordan McCabe.

Per ShotQuality data, the UNLV Rebels posted a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ number in 2022. Adversely, the Dayton Flyers had an even better 0.96 AdjDEF SQ number. The Flyers were in the top 1% in shot selection against, thanks primarily to elite SQ PPP numbers in half-court and post-up defense. Their only real bugaboo was in defensive spacing, something the Rebels didn't excel in. UNLV prefers the pick & roll game, another defensive shot-type stat that the Flyers dominated in. Additionally, the Rebels were one of the country's worst three-point shooting teams, backed by a poor 14.1% open three rate, and 1.03 rim & three SQ PPP. The Flyers ranked in the top 30 in both those key stat metrics.

The Dayton offense posted a 1.05 AdjOFF SQ number in the 2021-22 season. They were outstanding in shot selection, relying on layups and threes. The Flyers had some hiccups in actual shot-making, but their opponent on Tuesday was more than charitable in the department last year. Their best SQ PPP numbers come off-screen, transitioning, and shooting off the cut. UNLV's three worst SQ PPP defensive numbers from the previous season come in those exact metrics.

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Dayton vs. UNLV Prediction

Three-point ace Koby Brea has a chance to make his 2022-23 season debut, given that he warmed up in last week's win against SMU. Malachi Smith is more of a question mark, but at least he was seen without a walking boot last Friday. Meanwhile, Isaiah Cottrell, a UNLV transfer from West Virginia, remains out for the Rebels. He is a former blue-chip prospect who is looking to jumpstart his career under Kruger.

Prediction: Dayton -4(-110)

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