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On Saturday, the Dayton Flyers (6-5) will face the Wyoming Cowboys (5-5) at the Legends of Basketball Showcase in Chicago, Illinois. Dayton has struggled to capture the same success they had last season with nearly an identical team but have won three of their previous four, concluding with a dominant 79-56 win over UNC Asheville last Saturday.
Leading scorer and 2021-2022 All-A-10 everything, DaRon Holmes posted a 27-point, 12-rebound double-double to go with four blocks in the win. The true sophomore and former top prospect continues to build off an impressive freshman campaign that saw him win conference ROY.
Fellow All-A-10 member Toumani Camara also dropped a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds. A-10 All-Freshman Mustapha Amzil, redshirt sophomore R.J. Blakney, and 2021-22 A-10 6MOY Koby Brea scored double-digit points. Jack-of-all-trades guard Malachi Smith missed the contest, his seventh of the season, with a lower-body injury. He is out for the foreseeable future.
Dayton vs Wyoming: Match Details
Fixture: Dayton Flyers vs Wyoming Cowboys
Date & Time: Saturday, December 17, 8 p.m ET
Venue: United Center, Chicago
Dayton vs. Wyoming Betting Odds
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Wyoming has won two straight after losing four in a row in late November. The Cowboys, who made the NCAA Tournament last season, grabbed a statement win last time out with a 92-65 win over Louisiana Tech.
Redshirt junior Brendan Wenzel and sophomore Noah Reynolds tied for the team-high in points with 20. Leading scorer and 2021-22 All-MWC guard Hunter Maldonado had a well-rounded game, finishing with 13 points, three rebounds, seven assists, and two steals on 3-of-7 shooting.
Fellow All-MWC honoree Graham Ike is yet to make his season debut and is rumored to be out until January. The forward averaged 17.3 points and 9.6 rebounds a game last season. Former top prospect and USC transfer Max Agbonkpolo and UCLA transfer Jake Kyman did not play in the win.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Dayton Flyers own a 1.04 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 116th in the nation. Wyoming has the 40th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.93. Dayton does well in all key stats, but shot-making where they are in the 19th percentile. Conversely, the Cowboys are in the 14th percentile in defensive shot-making and top 50 in rim and 3 SQ PPP, Shot Selection, and free throw rate.
The Flyers own high-frequency numbers in off-the-dribble 3PT, off-screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 130 in all those shot types except post-up, with a 0.75 SQ PPP (346th in the country). Conversely, the Cowboys are top 100 in all those categories except 218th in off-screen shots (1.01 SQ PPP) and 339th in transition (1.46 SQ PPP).
The Wyoming Cowboys have a 1.06 AdjOFF SQ, the 81st-best mark in the country. Dayton has posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 111th in the country. The Cowboys are in the top 60 in rim and three rate, shot selection, spacing, and free throw rate. The Flyers are in the bottom 100 in rim and three rate and spacing while excelling in shot selection and free throw rate.
Wyoming is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot 3PT, half court, isolation, off-screen, and post-up. Wyoming is in the top 80 in defending all those shot types except post-up, where they own a 0.89 SQ PPP (242nd).
Dayton vs. Wyoming Prediction
Dayton and Wyoming entered this season with high expectations after phenomenal 2021-22 campaigns, but neither has lived up to the hype.
Dayton has gone 1-4 against teams with true playoff aspirations, while Wyoming has sorely missed the presence of Graham Ike.
With the Flyers showing signs of life lately and nearly at full strength, I like the Flyers to pull out the win, thanks to having an edge per SQ on offense.
Prediction: Dayton -2 (-110)
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