Falcons Buccaneers Odds and Predictions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions, Lines, Picks, and Odds - October 9 | 2022 NFL Week 5

Modified Oct 07, 2022 16:47 EDT

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) will play host to their divisional foe, the Atlanta Falcons (2-2), on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The Falcons, winners of two straight, are fresh off a narrow 23-20 win over the Cleveland Browns. The Marcus Mariota-led team used a balanced rushing attack to complete a fourth-quarter comeback. Three separate running backs totted the rock at least nine times. Youngsters Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier combined for 140 yards on 20 rushes (7.0 YPA). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are going in the opposite direction, losing in back-to-back weeks for only the second time in the Tom Brady era. The Chiefs most recently gashed the usually-dependent Bucs defense for 41 points. Tampa Bay owns a 9-4 divisional record dating back to the beginning of the 2020 season. However, the Falcons are a measly 3-10 against divisional opponents.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Atlanta Falcons	+10 (DraftKings)	O46* (DraftKings)	+360 (Ceasers)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-9.5 (BetMGM)	U46.5 (Ceasers)	-435 (DraftKings)

* = -115

Tale of the Tape

Although both teams possess identical records, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain the clear favorites to come out of the NFC South. Their two losses came against teams that deploy all-time quarterbacks (see Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes). Meanwhile, they still roster plenty of their Pro Bowl holdovers from seasons past. This included: Brady, First-Team All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs, DT Vita Vea, WR Mike Evans, S Antoine Winfield Jr., and do-it-all LB Devin White. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs defense is 6th in points allowed and 3rd in turnovers against. Outside the Chiefs fiasco, the defense seems to have stayed the course under new co-defensive coordinators Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers. This could spell doom for Falcons starting QB Marcus Mariota, who is 4th in the NFL in interception percentage, just behind Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and Jameis Winston.

This matchup also has all the markings of a "Get Right Game" for Touchdown Tom and the surprisingly pedestrian Bucs offense. The Falcons defense has been performing poorly (29th and 27th in passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns, respectively). Matthew Stafford, who has the worst QB rating of his career since 2012, even lit up the "Dirty Birds" for 272 passing yards and three scores. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans looking healthy heading into week 5, it makes sense for the Bucs to toss the rock around the yard on Sunday.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Prediction

Calvin Ridley wouldn't agree, but the Falcons are running at perfection. ATS will end on Sunday. Giving two possessions to a divisional foe is usually a bad idea, but the matchup seems too juicy for the Buccaneers. The Bucs' passing game should be efficient and effective against a poultry Falcons secondary. If the Bucs' front seven can stimy the Falcons' rushing attack and force Mariota into straight dropbacks, the turnovers should follow.