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The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-9) will visit the San Jose State Spartans (11-6) on Tuesday night. Fresno pulled off a significant upset over New Mexico to start 2023, but fell flat against Colorado State 79-57 last Saturday. Southern Miss transfer and leading scorer Isaiah Moore scored 23 points. Meanwhile, former Arizona Wildcat Jemarl Baker Jr. and senior Isaiah Hill also scored in the teens, but the Bulldogs allowed CSU to shoot 54% from the field.
Fresno State vs. San Jose State
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The usually competitive San Jose Spartans were blown out by Nevada, 67-40, last Saturday. Leading scorer Omari Moore dropped 10 points, but the Spartans shot 33% from the field while turning it over 20 times. The four other starters combined to go 3-of-16 from the floor outside Moore.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Fresno State Bulldogs own a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 133rd in the nation. San Jose State has the 221st-best AdjDEF SQ at 1.03. Fresno State does poorly to average in all key stats, but shot selection and shot making, where they are in the 50th percentile or better. Conversely, the Spartans are in the 20th percentile in defensive shot selection, but 328th in defensive shot making (89th percentile).
The Bulldogs own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointer, cut, half-court, off-the-dribble three-pointer, P&R ball screen, and post-up shot types. They are in the top 150 in all those shot types except off-the-dribble three-pointers, with a 0.95 SQ PPP (326th in the country), and post-up, with a 0.84 SQ PPP (245th). Conversely, the Spartans are bottom 175 in all those categories, especially struggling in defending off-the-dribble three-pointers (1.06 SQ PPP) and post-up (0.92 SQ PPP).
The San Jose State Spartans have a 1.05 AdjOFF SQ, the 99th-best mark in the country. Fresno State has posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 99th in the country. The Spartans are in the top 70 in rim and three rate and shot selection. The Bulldogs are in the top 100 at the defensive rim and three rate, while falling in the 39th percentile in defensive shot selection.
San Jose is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: finishing at the rim, half-court, off-the-dribble three-pointer, and P&R ball screen. Fresno State is in the top 100 in defending the perimeter and the pick and roll, but are bottom 100 in defending near the rim and in the half-court.
Fresno State vs. San Jose State Prediction
This is the ShotQuality play of the day. Fresno is catching 3.5 points, yet SQ projects the Bulldogs to run away in this game, winning by upwards of 10 points. Of course, Fresno can still go out there and lay an egg, but past results suggest that the Bulldogs should be able to control the pace and tempo of the game despite having to travel to San Jose. Grab Fresno with the points in this late-night MWC contest.
Prediction: Fresno State +3.5 (-110)
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