Houston vs. Saint Mary's Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 3 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The Saint Mary's Gaels (6-2) will face the (#1) Houston Cougars (7-0) in Fort Worth, Texas, on Saturday night. St. Mary's started the season with a perfect 6-0 but have dropped two straight, most recently losing a home game to New Mexico 69-65.

Leading scorer Alex Ducas scored 25 points to boost his season average to 14.5. Mitchell Saxon, whose minutes have nearly quadrupled since last season, added 11 points, nine rebounds, and five steals. Freshman guard Aidan Mahaney was the only other Gael in double-digits. Three-year starter Logan Johnson is another name on notice. The guard leads the team with 3.9 assists per game.

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Houston vs. Saint Mary's Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Saint Mary's Gaels	+9.5	0120.5	+365
Houston Cougars	-9.5	u120.5	-490

All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000 No Sweat First Bet at FanDuel

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Houston is the top team in the country, with an average margin of victory of around 30 points across seven games. Their most recent outing was a 100-52 victory over MEAC favorite Norfolk State.

Four-year starter Marcus Sasser, who missed last year's NCAA Tournament with an injury, dropped 25 points on 8-of-15 shooting. Tramon Mark, another injury casualty from the previous season, added 16 points, five rebounds, and six assists.

Freshmen phenoms Jarace Walker and Terrance Arceneau took a back seat to the upperclassmen but still combined for 16 points and 12 rebounds.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions

Saint Mary's

Offensive Key Stats

AdjOFF SQ = 1.09 (33rd)

Rim and 3 Rate = 93.3% (28th)

Shot Selection = 91st Percentile (28th)

Open 3 Rate = 32.3% (86th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.09 (92nd)

Spacing = 35th Percentile (225th)

Shot Making = 23rd Percentile (274th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Half Court = 1.05 (12th)

P&R Ball Screen = 1.07 (20th)

Post-Up = 1.07 (58th)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.17 (98th)

Defensive key stats

AdjDEF SQ = 0.96 (70th)

Free Throw Rate = 25.7% (79th)

Open 3 Rate = 27.3% (247th)

Shot Selection = 64th Percentile (254th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.09 (265th)

Shot Making = 75th Percentile (286th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Off-Screen = 1.00 (214th)

Post-Up = 0.89 (223rd)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.15 (246th)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.02 (283rd)

P&R Ball Screen = 1.03 (292nd)

Half Court = 1.03 (320th)

Isolation = 1.06 (355th)

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Houston

Offensive Key Stats

AdjOFF SQ = 1.13 (10th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.10 (74th)

Shot Selection = 71st Percentile (88th)

Spacing = 71st Percentile (89th)

Free Throw Rate = 26.7% (273rd)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Off-Screen = 1.23 (4th)

Transition = 1.43 (71st)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.18 (90th)

P&R Ball Screen = 1.00 (132nd)

Cut = 1.15 (141st)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.04 (132nd)

Isolation = 0.90 (200th)

Post-Up = 0.85 (230th)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.96 (255th)

Defensive key stats

AdjDEF SQ = 0.95 (64th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.01 (37th)

Shot Selection = 10th Percentile (38th)

Open 3 Rate = 14.9% (97th)

Shot Making = 50th Percentile (200th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 89.3% (268th)

Spacing = 86th Percentile (319th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)

Isolation = 0.80 (13th)

Half Court = 0.94 (68th)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.96 (116th)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.95 (128th)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.03 (200th)

Midrange = 0.81 (288th)

Off-Screen = 1.06 (308th)

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Houston vs. Saint Mary's Prediction

There shouldn't be a debate at this juncture of the season. Houston are the best team in the league. They are a top-notch defensive group with a bevy of guards and centers that can cause havoc on both sides of the court. This team should be considered one of Kelvin Sampson's best since he took over at Houston in 2013.

Saint Mary's are no slouch either, but a slow-paced team like theirs may struggle to break 60 in this contest. Neither team should expect to get out on big scoring runs, making the under the play even with it at such a low number.

Prediction: Under 120.5 (-110)

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