Houston vs. Tulsa Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 28 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The (#3) Houston Cougars (12-1) will visit the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-7) on Wednesday night. Houston is one of the premium college basketball teams this season, with a mix of veteran playmakers and talented young big men.

The Cougars have won three straight, most recently blowing out McNeese State 83-44. Sophomore forward Ja'Vier Francis had a career night, dropping 23 points on a perfect 9-of-9 from the field in 26 minutes off the bench.

Leading scorer Marcus Sasser added 17 points on five made threes, while Jamal Shead had seven points and nine assists. Shead played a massive role in last season's Elite Eight team when Sasser went down with an injury. Head coach Kelvin Sampson now has both guards at his disposal to go with Tramon Mark and blue chip prospect Terrance Arceneaux.

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Houston vs. Tulsa Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Houston Cougars	-20.5	0134.5	-4500
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	+20.5	u134.5	+1500

All Lines Provided by Caesars Sportsbook

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Tulsa fell to Loyola Marymount in their previous game. Leading scorer Sam Griffin finished with 13 points, while sophomore Anthony Pritchard tallied 12 points with a team-high five assists.

Chicago State transfer and 2021-22 All-WAC honoree Brandon Betson had 10 points off the bench, and sophomore Bryant Selebangue posted 10 points and seven rebounds.

The Golden Hurricane has struggled against top competition, losing to Oklahoma State by 26 in late November.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Houston Cougars own a 1.15 AdjOFF SQ this season, which is good for 7th in the nation. Tulsa has the 168th-best AdjDEF SQ at 1.01. Houston does average or poor in all key stats, but spacing where they are in the 83rd percentile. They are also 33rd in the rim and three SQ PPP. Conversely, the Golden Hurricane are in the 56th percentile in defensive spacing and top 30 in rim and three SQ PPP.

The Cougars own high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot three, cut, isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 40 in cut and off-screen shot types, yet bottom 100 in midrange and isolation. Conversely, the Golden Hurricane are in the top 140 in defending all those shot types.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane has a 0.97 AdjOFF SQ, the 247th-best mark in the country. Houston has posted a 0.90 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 16th in the country. The Golden Hurricane are top 100 only in spacing, placing in the 84th percentile. The Cougars are one of the worst teams in the country in defensive spacing, falling in the 98th percentile.

Tulsa is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, half-court, isolation, and off-the-dribble three. Conversely, Houston is in the top 30 in defending all those shot types except cut, where they own a 1.11 SQ PPP (175th in the country), and half-court, where they own a 0.96 SQ PPP (97th).

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Houston vs. Tulsa Prediction

Neither team seems to have an advantage on offense, yet the defenses should have an edge due to favorable shot-type matchups. Houston's defense has always been tough to go against, while Kelvin Sampson has been the bench boss, and Tulsa should be no exception.

Tulsa should have a decent crowd tonight, considering they are hosting a top team, but that should be more reason for the Cougars to come out and lock down on defense. If the Cougs don't go nuclear on offense, this game should fly below the total.

Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110)

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