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The (#16) Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) will face the Missouri Tigers (10-1) on Thursday in the 52nd rendition of the Braggin' Rights game on a neutral court in Missouri.
Illinois is 2-2 in December, beating Texas and Alabama A&M and losing to Maryland and Penn State. National champion and former Baylor Bear Matthew Mayer had a team-high 21 points and three blocks in their most recent win over Alabama A&M. Leading scorer and former All-Big 12 honoree Terrence Shannon Jr. added 18 points on 5-of-12 shooting. Mayer and Shannon are two of the nine former ESPN top 100 prospects in this year's rendition of the Fighting Illini.
Baylor transfer Dain Dainja, guard RJ Melendez, and freshmen Skyy Clark and Jayden Epps are all former blue-chip recruits that average eight or more points per game.
Illinois vs. Missouri Betting Odds
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Missouri's DeAndre Gholston banked in a buzzer-beater three against UCF last Saturday to give the Tigers a 68-66 win. Gholston finished with 16 points in 23 minutes off the bench. D'Moi Hodge delivered the game-winning pass to Gholston and added 15 points, four rebounds, three assists, and three steals.
Clemson transfer Nick Honor posted a team-high 17 points on 63% from deep. The longest-tenured Tiger All-SEC forward Kobe Brown finished with nine points, marking his second straight game under double-digit points.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
Illinois Fighting Illini owns a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 56th in the nation. Missouri has the 61st-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.95. Illinois does well in all key stats, but in free throw rate and open three rate, where they are just outside the top 100. Conversely, the Tigers are 344th in defensive open three rate and 215th in defensive free throw rate.
The Fighting Illini owns high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, off-the-dribble three-pointers, post-up, and transition shot types. They are top 100 in all those shot types except cut, with a 1.10 SQ PPP (207th in the country), and post-up, with a 0.85 SQ PPP (228th). Conversely, the Tigers are in the top 40 in defending in all those categories except in catch & shoot three-pointers (141st) and off-the-dribble three-pointers (335th).
The Missouri Tigers have a 1.09 AdjOFF SQ, the 47th-best mark in the country. Illinois has posted a 0.86 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 2nd in the country. The Tigers are in the top 60 in all key stats except 304th in free throw rate. The Fighting Illini are in the bottom 150 in open three rate and shot-making while excelling in all other key stats.
Missouri is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: finishing at the rim, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and transition. They are in the top 15 of all those shot types except 129th in off-the-dribble three-pointers. Illinois, on the other hand, is in the top 20 in defending all those shot types except off-the-dribble three-pointers, where they own a 1.00 SQ PPP (181st in the country).
Illinois vs. Missouri Prediction
Missouri wants to get out, run in transition, and take high-percentage chances at the rim, but Illinois has stymied both of those shot types this season. The Fighting Illini also likes to run in transition and post-up in the half-court, but the Tigers have shown to be elite in defending both shot types. The defenses match up exceptionally well against opposing offenses, and with Illinois' recent shooting struggles, this matchup could fly under the set total.
Prediction: Under 152.5 (-110)
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