UCLA vs. Long Beach State Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 11 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

Long Beach State (1-0) will face off with the (#8) UCLA Bruins on the road on Friday. UCLA went 27-8 last season under third-year head coach Mick Cronin. After a miraculous Final Four run two years ago, the Bruins were ousted in the Sweet 16 last March. However, there is minimal turnover heading into this season. The loss of superstar Johnny Juzang to the NBA draft has been softened by the return of March Madness hero Jaime Jaquez, point guard Tyger Campbell, and senior Jaylen Clark. Cronin added three of ESPN's top 100 prospects this offseason, including top-five recruit Amari Bailey, who had 10 points in the 76-50 win over Sacramento State last Monday. Jaylen Clark led the way with 17 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and seven steals.

Long Beach State went 20-13 last season while winning the Big West Regular Season Title. Joel Murray returns for his senior season after averaging 16.7 points last year. Alongside Murray, forward Lassina Traore and guard Jadon Jones scored in double-figures in their 79-64 win at California Baptist.

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UCLA vs. Long Beach State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Long Beach State	+19.5	0145.5	+1300
UCLA Bruins	-19.5	u145.5	-3333

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Per ShotQuality data, the Bruins posted an elite 1.12 AdjOFF SQ from being in the 94th percentile in shot-making despite placing in the bottom quarter of teams in shot selection. Frequency and SQ PPP illustrate an efficient team in isolation, midrange, and post-up. The Bruins were one of the top teams in the country in those metrics, all while LBSU struggled, especially in isolation defense. Long Beach was quick to run opponents off the three-point line and limit fouls, but neither data point is what the Bruins do best or frequently.

Meanwhile, LBSU has some striking similarities to UCLA in their offensive game. They, too, struggled with rim, three rate and shot selection, but were in the good to great percentile in shot-making. Unlike the Bruins, the Beach thrived in free throw rate, something the Bruins don't allow opposing teams to do. The rim and three rate suffered from a terrible SQ PPP number in finishing at the rim and half-court offense, both strengths of the Bruins. However, they were carried by an elite 1.06 SQ PPP mark in off-the-dribble three-pointers.

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UCLA vs. Long Beach State Prediction

If Long Beach can hit their three-pointers, they should be able to stay within 20 points of the far superior Bruins. UCLA is dominant and should own the post, but if LBSU can trade a couple of baskets for a three, it shouldn't get out of hand. After all, they did win what is usually the hyper-competitive Big West last season.

Prediction: Long Beach State +19.5 (-110)

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