Milwaukee vs. Purdue Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 8 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The college basketball season will continue on Tuesday. The Purdue Boilermakers will host the Milwaukee Panthers at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana. The Boilermakers finished last season 29-8, punching their ticket to the Big Dance for a seventh straight season.

Unfortunately, Purdue was one of the three single-digit seeds to fall against #15 St. Peters, having been ousted by the Peacocks 67-64 in the Elite Eight.

Matt Painter's squad will continue to be flush with talent, led by 7'4" center Zach Edey, who averaged 14.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in 2021-22. He will be part of a rotation that includes off-and-on starter Mason Gillis, former ESPN top 100 prospects Caleb Furst, Ethan Morton, and Trey Kaufman-Renn, and 2022 ESPN No.86 recruit Fletcher Loyer.

The Panthers will begin the Bart Lundy Era on Tuesday. Lundy took over for Pat Baldwin, who, along with his five-star recruit son, went 10-22 last season before his dismissal. The roster features heavy turnover, with prized recruit Pat Baldwin Jr., who is now on the Golden State Warriors and nearly every minute-getter from last season gone. However, some new faces may be suitable for a Milwaukee team that finished ninth in the Horizon League.

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Milwaukee vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Milwaukee	+25.5	0141.5	+3000
Purdue	-25.5	u141.5	-10000

All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

ShotQuality data from last season paints an ugly picture of the Milwaukee offense. The Panthers ranked 331st or worse in the country in Adjusted Offensive Shot Quality (AdjOFF SQ of 0.91), Rim and 3 Rate (79.2%), and Shot Selection (4th).

AdjOFF SQ illustrates a Panthers squad that takes a poor percentage of shots more often than not. It, however, aligns with a porous Shot Selection percentile (if an average player takes every shot where their team would be in efficiency, Milwaukee is in the 4th percentile). Reading between the lines suggests that the 2021-22 rendition of the Milwaukee Men's basketball team was feast or famine with mid-range jumpers.

Meanwhile, Purdue was an offensive juggernaut last season, posting an AdjOFF SQ of 1.16 while being in the 100th percentile in Shot Selection. The Boilermakers spaced the floor while being able to find open shooters from beyond the arch (23.7% of treys were considered open last season). The Boilermakers' three-point shooting ability is a relative point, given their season opener is against a Panthers squad that allowed nearly 22% of opposing threes to be heaved unguarded.

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Milwaukee vs. Purdue Prediction

The numbers suggest that Purdue will continue to take highly efficient and makable shots, while Milwaukee will not. Unfortunately, that goes tenfold for the Panthers since they will roll out a new team that should lack chemistry and cohesivity in the early going. Like all good Purdue teams, they will still have a towering, unworldly presence in the frontcourt; see Zach Edey. ShotQuality suggests the Boilermakers have some value ATS, and I second that given the current unknowns surrounding the talent for the new-look Panthers.

Prediction: Boilermakers -25.5 (-110)

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