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The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-8) will host the (#21) New Mexico Lobos (14-0) on Tuesday night. New Mexico is the lone undefeated team after Purdue fell to Rutgers at home Monday night. The Lobos went up to Laramie and escaped with a 76-75 win over Wyoming last Saturday to stay undefeated. Leading scorer and former Minnesota Golden Gopher Jamal Mashburn dropped a team-high 20 points, while UMKC transfer Josiah Allick posted a 15-point, 15-rebound double-double. Former ASU Sun Devil Jaelen House also put up double-digit points.
New Mexico vs. Fresno State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
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Fresno State fell apart late against Utah State last Saturday, losing 67-54. The leading scorer, former Arizona and Kentucky Wildcat Jemarl Baker Jr., had 20 points on 44% shooting from the field in the defeat. Junior Leo Colimerio added ten points, but the Bulldogs were mainly inefficient, shooting 20% from deep and never eclipsing 30 points in a half.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The New Mexico Lobos own a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ this season, which is good for 19th in the nation. Fresno State has the 123rd-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.98. New Mexico does well in all key stats, except spacing, where they are in the 7th percentile. Conversely, the Bulldogs are in the 26th percentile in defensive spacing yet disastrous in shot-making, a strength of the Lobos.
The Lobos own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 80 in all those shot types except isolation, with a 0.93 SQ PPP (143rd in the country). Conversely, the Bulldogs are in the top 100 in all those categories except finishing at the rim, isolation, and post-up shot types.
The Fresno State Bulldogs have a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ, the 132nd-best mark in the country. New Mexico has posted a 0.99 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 129th in the country. The Bulldogs are in the top 90 in shot selection and rim and 3 SQ PPP. The Lobos are in the 48th percentile in defensive shot selection and 222nd in rim and 3 SQ PPP.
Fresno State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointer, cut, half-court, off-the-dribble three-pointer, P&R ball screen, and post-up. However, new Mexico ranks in the bottom half of the country in defending all those shot types, especially struggling with shots off of cuts (341st in the country).
New Mexico vs. Fresno State Prediction
The Bulldogs should have an easier time scoring against New Mexico than they did last week against Utah State. They are also back on their home court, where they tend to have more team success. The Bulldogs are getting a decent amount of points on their home court, while from a talent perspective, they should be able to hang. Ride with Fresno with the points in this late MWC matchup.
Prediction: Fresno State +4.5 (-110)
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