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2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 14 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, GB Packers, Indianapolis Colts, NO Saints & Washington Commanders
Sunday December 11th, 2022 1:00pm
NY Jets (7-5), (7-5) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (9-3), (5-6-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS NYJ+9 ½
LW, NYJ should have won the game. Braxton Berrios holds on to the ball, NYJ win either 29-27 or 30-27 @MINN. Instead he drops a pass that was easy and no one around him, NYJ lose 27-22. I liked NYJ +3 and they should have won outright. NYJ Mike White played another good game and the NYJ rushed for 120yds.
But NYJ did dig themselves a hole when trailing in this game, 20-6. So, it was comeback city for NYJ and they played better in the 2nd half but still have redzone woes as they kicked 5fgs in this game. NYJ needs to punch it in when they get the opportunity.
On TNF, NE started out with a 7-3 lead and then BUFF took over. They closed down the lanes and everything else for NE and countered with a balanced attack that brought out 132yds rushing, 1td on 37 carries. While BUFF QB Josh Allen threw 22/33, 223yds, 2tds & 1lost fumble. This game was BUFF 17-7 at the half and they were in control. BUFF used ball control in the 2nd half to stop NE from getting extra possessions and limited them to 3pts on 3possessions. The final score was BUFF 24-10.
L15 BUFF(H) vs NYJ, BUFF 8-7 SU & 8-7 ATS. L26 BUFF vs NYJ, 13-13 SU & 13-13 ATS. L26 BUFF vs NYJ, FAV 13-12 ATS 1PICK. L11 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 7-4 SU & 6-5 ATS. BUFF 7-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. BUFF 26-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 38-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 19-13 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 8-2-1 ATS before MIA. NYJ 8-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYJ 38-31-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 46-39-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 29-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NYJ 4-13-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. NYJ 4-16-1 as a ROAD DOG 5-17-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS win.
These two teams met in wk 9 @the NYJ and the NYJ won 20-17. BUFF took the lead in this game but NYJ put the clamps down, came back and beat BUFF. They forced BUFF QB Josh Allen into mistakes and the DEF for NYJ was there. There are two big factors going into this game. For the NYJ, they are coming off a game they should have won, period. So there is the bounceback. For BUFF it is a revenge game. They were embarrassed @NYJ earlier in the season and now they want to make amends. They also have to keep on winning ahead of MIA & KC for a shot at the #1 seed.
BUFF #2 TOT OFF vs NYJ #4 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #6 PASS DEF.
HC Robert Saleh is a defensive specialist and he made his bones in SF as the DC. If there ever was a game NYJ needed to shut a team down, it was this game. I think BUFF wins this game but not by more than a td if, they even win the game at all. For NYJ, they have to control Allen. If they do that, they will shut down BUFF. Also, they need not worry about LB Von Miller, he is out for a few weeks.
NYJ QB White needs to stay calm and take what the DEF gives him. He beat BUFF last season, so he’s been there before. No turnovers for NYJ is the requisite. If they get turnoveritous, BUFF will win big. I like NYJ with points here. This should be a good game and a tight game. Plus, the possibility that NYJ get the upset.
THE PICK: NYJ+9 ½
Sunday December 11th, 2022 1:00pm
Cleveland Browns (5-7), (8-4) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4), (9-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS CLEV+6
LW, CLEVE was @HOU and beat them 27-14, a BIG so what! CLEV didn’t even score a td on OFF. They were handed a punt return, a fumble and an INT that were all tds courtesy of HOU. CLEV managed 2fgs on OFF and that was it. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was rusty and heard all the boos. He will probably hear boos again this week. The run game helped Watson out as CLEV rushed for a combined 174yds on 38carries.
LW, I loved me some CINNCY QB Joe Burrow vs KC. If you are reading this, I said so on the Rick Kamla show on the Bettor Sports Network, on Friday night at 8:30pm. I should have had it as my BEST BET of the week. It was a nice balanced attack vs KC and CINNCY won 27-24. It helped a lot that the CINNCY RUN game had 152yds rushing and 1td. Burrow was near perfect going 25/31, 286yds, 2tds, 0turnnovers. He spread the ball to 8different receivers and had the KC DEF on its toes. The CINNCY DEF even forced a fumble from KC TE Travis Kelce who almost never fumbles. CINNCY was down 24-17 in this game but CINNCY came back with the forced fumble and KC also had a missed fg. That gave the ball back to CINNCY one last time for the win.
L15 CINNCY(H) vs CLEV, CINNCY 10-5 SU & 7-6-2 ATS. L31 CLEV vs CINNCY, DOG 18-9-4 ATS. L22 CINNCY vs CLEVE, CINNCY 11-7-4 ATS. L18 CLEV vs CINNCY, CINNCY 11-4-3 ATS. CINNCY 10-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 48-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 26-24-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 26-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 5-7-1 ATS L13 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 1-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 1-5 ATS vs div opp off DD SU win. CLEV 8-17-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CLEV 12-25-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEV 27-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 34-39 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 2-9 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. CLEV 6-17 ATS off DD SU win. CLEV 1-10-1 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 1-12-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 4-16 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. CLEV 0-8 ATS off DD SU win vs >.333 opp. CLEV off BB SU wins vs opp off SU DOG win.
These two teams met in wk 8 on MNF and CLEV shocked the world and beat CINNCY 32-13. CINNCY was a ROAD FAV-3 in that game and the game didn’t start out well for CINNNCY and QB Joe Burrow had a bad game. Burrow doesn’t forget and he will remind everyone this week. The guy is as cool as a cucumber and I expect CINNCY to destroy CLEV here. This is a payback game and the CINNCY DEF will also get to Watson as well. CINNCY #15 RUSH DEF. It will be all on Watson’s shoulders and CINNCY will be waiting. This game has blowout written all over it. Burrow is Brady 2.0 in his demeanor and how he goes about the game. He isn’t fazed by things and knows that there will be a next time. He was cool last week vs KC and will deliver this week. These two teams know each other well and it will be a dog fight at the beginning of the game but then CINNCY will go on a scoring spree. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CINNCY-6
Sunday December 11th, 2022 1:00pm
Philadelphia Eagles (11-1), (6-5-1) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ NY Giants (7-4-1), (9-3) ATS, (4-2-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS NYG+7
LW, NYG & WASH @NYG played to a 20-20 tie. What sticks out in this game is that both teams had good days on the ground. WASH rushed for 165yds on 36 carries, while NYG rushed for 134yds on 30 carries & 1td. This was a seesaw game that had a 13-13 tie at halftime. NYG took a 20-13 lead in the 3rd qtr and WASH scored a td in the 4th qtr to tie it at 20-20. Neither team scored in OT and there you had it. LW, PHILLY was @HOME vs TENN. Let’s put it this way, it didn’t go well for TENN. TENN was the DOG+6 and I actually thought they would keep it close after losing to CINNCY, the bounceback. There was no bounceback and it snapped.
This game was 7-7 in the 1st qtr and then PHILLY 21-10 at the half and TENN was done. TENN punted 4x in the 2nd half and 1x turned the ball over on downs. PHILLY scored two more tds and the final was 35-10. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts put on an air show going 29/39, 380yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. PHILLY WR AJ Brown caught 8passes for 119yds & 2tds. PHILLY WR DeVonta Smith caught 5passes for 102yds and 1td. Hurts spread the ball out to nine different receivers. The TENN secondary was torched.
L15 NYG(H) vs PHILLY, NYG 5-10 SU & 6-9 ATS. L30 NYG vs PHILLY, DOG 19-10-1 ATS. L30 PHILLY vs NYG, ROAD 17-12-1 ATS. PHILLY 11-19 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 1-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. PHILLY 5-13 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. PHILLY 0-7 ATS as a FAV 3>pts in 1st of BB RGs. PHILLY 41-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 39-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 27-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 4-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV off DD ATS win. PHILLY 4-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3>pts off DD ATS win. NYG 15-21 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYG 45-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 33-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 36-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 10-5 ATS after WASH.
PHILLY is on a roll and sometimes what they do on the ground is more than what a team does combined on the ground and in the air. NYG are a beat up team with not too many targets to throw to. PHILLY will be ready but will the NYG DEF be ready?
PHILLY #3 TOT OFF w/#5 RUSH OFF & #13 PASS OFF vs NYG #23 TOT DEF w/#26 RUSH DEF & #18 PASS DEF. Obviously, this does not favor NYG. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts has weapons that they haven’t even used and they will probably go full force in this game. Who in the NYG secondary will stop PHILLY? If Hurts spreads out the OFF like he did vs TENN, this game will be over very early. Don’t be surprised by a PHILLY blowout this weekend. NYG will try to use their run game but again PHILLY will be waiting. Look for NYG QB Daniel Jones to get caught up in some turnovers which add to the scoring for PHILLY. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PHILLY-7
Sunday December 11th, 2022 4:00pm
TB Buccaneers (6-6), (3-8-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (8-4), (7-5) ATS, (5-1), (4-2) ATS TB+3
LW, NO played not to win & not to lose. TB was down 16-3 very late in the game and I said to myself that I should stick around and watch this. Sure enough, the combination of suspect play calling by NO, no DEF and TB QB Tom Brady doing his thing, TB won 17-16 with :03 left in the game. In the last two drives by TB, they ran 21 plays and went 154 yds for 2tds. The first drive was 91yds & the 2nd drive was 63yds. NO didn’t make a stop. They deserve to lose. TB actually rushed for 76yds in this game but Brady threw 54x.
On the last 2drives, Brady went 14/19. He had thrown 35 passes before these two drives but NO didn’t do anything on these last two. LW, I was wrong. The SF DEF is for real after swarming all over on a good team, MIA. The DEF for SF had 3INTS & a sack fumble for a td. Plus, they beat MIA 33-17 with a 3rd string QB after SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a broken foot. QB Brock Purdy took over and went 25/37, 201yds, 2tds & 1INT. He spread the ball around to 7different receivers and the MIA DEF couldn’t and didn’t make stops when they needed them.
The SF DEF also shut down the MIA run game to 33yds and forced MIA to throw more than it wanted to. RB Christian McCaffrey was a big part of the OFF, rushing 17x for 66yds and catching 8 passes for 80yds & 1TD.
L9 SF vs TB, SF 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS. TB 27-37-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 33-40-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 26-26-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 8-9 ATS after NO. SF 33-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 34-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 7-9 ATS L16 vs NFC SOUTH. SF 7-0 ATS after non-conf HOME gm.
SF did not miss a beat a beat with QB Brock Purdy. He came in like a seasoned pro. He led the troops successfully and the players around him produced. That gave the SF DEF an added spunk knowing that the OFF was doing its job. TB & Tom Brady barely beat a NO team that played tough for 57 minutes then went missing and lost the game. Brady needed to pull out all of the tricks against a NO team that was playing not to lose. SF is a team that will be ready because they are loaded on both sides of the ball.
SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF vs TB #17 TOT OFF w/#32 RUSH OFF & #5 PASS OFF.
The reason why TB has such a highly rated PASS OFF is because they can’t run the ball. SF will be waiting. There will definitely be a roughing the passer penalty vs SF in this game because Brady always gets one of those calls his way. If Brady has to throw 54x in this game like he did vs NO, TB will probably be losing by a lot. Out the door goes the run game. No comeback for TB or let down by SF. SF should stuff the run early. SF SHOULD win this game by 2tds. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SF-3
Sunday December 11th, 2022 8:20pm
Miami Dolphins (8-4) (6-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ LA Chargers (6-6), (5-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS LAC+3
LW, LAC played not to win & not to lose. HC Brandon Staley thinks he is being smart going for it almost every time he gets a 4th down. Well, he takes points off the board when he doesn’t convert with a play that looks suspect. He changes the game for LAC when he doesn’t take the 3pts. On top of the fact that his whole game plan is suspect from the get go. The DEF for LAC is completely overrated and can’t stop anyone with an average OFF.
LAC #26 TOT DEF w/#29 RUSH DEF & #19 PASS DEF. Hence LAC was up 10-0 @LV but ended up losing 27-20. LAC gave up 154yds rushing. Plus, no one could stop LV Davante Adams who had 8 catches for 177yds &2tds. Now they face a pissed off MIA team, good luck. LAC 2-6 ATS as a FAV in 2022. Always bet against them if they are laying points. LW, MIA was @SF. But 2INTS and a sack fumble returned for a td doomed MIA. The 2ints and sack fumble turned into 13pts for SF. I liked MIA+3 ½ because I felt that MIA had a chance and because the SF DEF really hadn’t played anyone good. Well, the SF DEF showed up and the run game for MIA was stopped cold. MIA rushed for 33yds while giving up 121yd rushing. MIA played catchup and it didn’t help that MIA QBS had 4turnovers. The MIA DEF had no answer for SF QB Brock Purdy who came in for QB Jimmy G after he left with a foot injury. Purdy spread the ball around to 7different receivers like the MIA DEF wasn’t even there.
L11 MIA vs LAC, MIA 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. MIA 6-5-1 ATS off a loss & playing on SNF. MIA 9-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. MIA 2-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV on SNF. MIA 6-7 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 8-14 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MIA 26-53 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 25-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 21-25 ATS L46 in DEC. LAC 7-9 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. LAC12-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 13-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 5-7-1 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. LAC 7-14 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. LAC 31-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 31-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC.
This is a pissed of MIA team that is competing against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC EAST. They know that they missed a golden opportunity prove to everyone that they are for real. LAC is not for real and will falter like they always do. They may be coming off a loss too but the DEF for LAC disappears at times when they are needed most. MIA should be able to get their RUSH OFF going against a team that doesn’t stop it at all. MIA should win this game handsomely. MIA needs to win this game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-3
THE BEST BET OUT OF THE FIVE: SF-3
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
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