NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY: 2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 12

2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)

All times are Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Sunday November 27th, 2022 1:00pm

TB Buccaneers (5-5), (3-6-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (3-7), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS CLEV+3

LW, I liked CLEV+9 ½ @BUFF even before the game was moved to DET because of weather. CLEV played tough for the 1st half trailing 13-10, but the 2nd half was all BUFF. CLEV was playing catchup the whole game, but to no avail. However, they did manage a back door cover with a TD drive with :19 left in the game. CLEV DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it and BUFF moved up and down the field. TB is coming off a bye. Before that, they played SEA in Germany and built up a 21-3 lead before SEA woke up. SEA tried to come back but to no avail, and TB won 21-16. TB QB Tom Brady spread the ball around to 8 different receivers and kept the SEA DEF on its toes. TB also found their run game with RBs Rachaad White & Leonard Fournette rushing for a combined 162 yards on 36 carries and 1td. L4 CLEV vs TB, TB 3-1 SU 2-0-2 ATS. TB 11-14 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. TB 2-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. TB 28-25-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 40-29-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 26-25-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. CLEV 12-19 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CLEV 22-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 15-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEV 14-20-1 ATS L35 vs NFC. The season has been a disaster for CLEV, and this will probably be the last game for Brissett as the starter at QB. But on top of that, the CLEV DEF can’t stop anyone. They showed that even with no weather conditions to worry about in DET as they were useless. That win vs CINNCY on MNF seems like a long time ago. They did everything right in that game and haven’t done anything right since. Now they play a motivated TB team that all of a sudden has a chance to make a playoff run. TB is coming off a bye. TB 8-6 ATS since 2007, the week after their bye. No bye in 2007 due to a storm. TB has only two tough games ahead of them, and the rest are winnable. They could end up 11-6. I like TB here as they are rested and ready to challenge, as they showed a little bit of it vs SEA. Plus, if TB can get their run game going, they should be able to keep the CLEV DEF on its heels. CLEV #23 RUSH DEF. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: TB-3

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Sunday November 27th, 2022 1:00pm

Cincinnati Bengals (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (7-3), (8-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS TENN+1 ½

On TNF, TENN did what they needed to do to stop GB & CO @Lambeau field. I liked TENN+3 ½ to win outright because TENN doesn’t give up much in the way of points. Plus, I was looking at the revenge factor when GB embarrassed TENN on a cold TNF game in 2020. I told you, coaches and players, don’t forget. Anyway, TENN held the GB rushing game to 56 total yards and TENN QB Ryan Tannehill played almost perfect football with 22/27, 333 yards 2TDS & 1INT. Even RB Derrick Henry threw a TD which caught the GB DEF off guard. TENN never gave up the lead and held on nicely for a 27-17 win. LW, CINCY went to PITT and beat them 37-30. CINCY QB Joe Burrow had a fine day picking apart the PITT DEF for 24/39, 355yds, 4 TDs & 2 INTS. PITT was actually up 20-17 at the half, but CINNCY made some adjustments, and PITT couldn’t get going on DEF. The score was CINNCY 37-23 when PITT scored a dummy td to make the final score look close. The PITT DEF did stop the CINCY run game to a combined 62 yards, but they had no answer for Burrow. However, Burrow’s 2INTS did lead to 2PITT fgs, but CINNCY was in control of this game in the 2nd half. L8 CINNCY vs TENN, CINNCY 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. CINNCY 13-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 35-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 45-37-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 8-11 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 8-4 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 6-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. CINNCY 11-5 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. TENN 14-7 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. TENN 25-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 33-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 9-15 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 9-5 ATS L14 off DD SU win. TENN 7-21 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 13-3 ATS vs .600> opp off ATS win. This is going to be the matchup. TENN RB Derrick Henry vs CINNCY. TENN #11 RUSH OFF vs CINNCY # #17 RUSH DEF. But, TENN HC Mike Vrabel will look to keep the CINCY DEF on its toes. He doesn’t come out with the usual game plan. Just when you think it’s going to Henry, he surprises you. Plus, Tannehill can spread the ball around to many different receivers. He has learned to be patient. Burrow knows how to handle pressure, and he has shown it without WR Ja’Marr Chase. He can spread the ball around, too and keep the DEF on its toes. I certainly don’t see too many turnovers in this game, and it will certainly be a good game. Both are coming off wins, but, I like TENN to win in a close one, possibly by a FG. Take TENN here.

THE PICK: TENN+1 ½

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Sunday November 27th, 2022 4:00pm

LV Raiders (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS LV+3 ½

LW, LV won a game they never should have won. I give them a lot of credit, but DEN beat themselves. LV was @DEN looking for the sweep in the season series. DEN was up 10-0 when they couldn’t do anything right and let LV back into the game. LV RB Josh Jacobs ran for 109 yards on 24 carries which took a lot of pressure off of QB Derek Carr. He was able to dissect the DEN DEF and find WR Davante Adams for seven catches, 141yds & 2tds. When Carr passed to Adams in OT, Adams didn’t have anyone near him for 20 yards. Adams just walked into the endzone, and the game was over 22-16 in OT. LV was able to sack DEN QB Russell Wilson 3x and make Wilson beat himself. SEA is coming off a bye, and before their bye, they lost in Germany to TB. SEA made mistakes early and let themselves get behind TB, 21-3. SEA tried coming back but came up short, 21-16. SEA QB Geno Smith had a fumble in the red zone that TB was eventually able to turn into a TD. For Geno, that has been uncharacteristic this season. He has been playing very smart and aggressive, and SEA has been winning. In this game, the run game for SEA was also stagnant at a measly 39yds combined on 14 carries. SEA dug themselves a hole early, and it was TB 14-0 at the half. SEA punted 5x on five possessions in the 1st half. In the 2nd half, it looked like SEA might pull it out but to no avail. It was definitely a game that SEA could have and should have won. L4 SEA vs LV, SEA 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. SEA 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. SEA 33-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 35-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 3-8 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500<opp. SEA 2-9 ATS @HOME w/rest. SEA 5-7 ATS before LAR. LV 11-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LV 38-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 40-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 5-7 ATS after DEN. LV 6-5 ATS AWAY vs .400> non-conf opp. LV 7-3 ATS vs opp w/rest. For SEA to be successful in this game, they need to shut down LV RB Josh Jacobs. If he gets going, Carr will be able to pick and choose where he wants to go with the ball. It will be over early for SEA. Once SEA shuts the run down, SEA needs to put pressure on Carr, so he makes mistakes. Carr didn’t make any mistakes vs DEN, and he’s due. LV 3-5 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. For SEA, their DEF has gotten better, and they are making stops. Also, LVWR Adams has to be shut down too. He has become a favorite for Carr and seems to always be open. They need to make stops in this game because LV has a way of getting momentum very easily. SEA #12 TOT OFF vs LV #27 TOT DEF w/ #24 PASS DEF. For the SEA OFF, Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a nice surprise and has been able to take a lot of pressure off of Geno because of his successful running. He needs to get going in this game and establish the run so Geno can dissect the LV secondary. Lay the points here as SEA gets going and bounces back after their loss. SEA should win a by a td.

THE PICK: SEA -3 ½

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Sunday November 27th, 2022 8:20pm

GB Packers (4-7), (4-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS GB+7

LW, PHILLY was @INDY. I liked INDY+7 ½ because of some changes INDY had made. INDY was actually up 13-3 but couldn’t hold on. PHILLY surged in the 4th qtr and beat INDY 17-16 with a td at 1:20 left in the qtr. INDY’s DEF played tough but couldn’t finish. PHILLY showed that they didn’t give up even though they were down for one of the only times this season. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts didn’t make mistakes, and PHILLY was able to rush for a combined 141 yards. LW, GB was @HOME on TNF vs TENN. TENN is a very tough team that doesn’t give up much and doesn’t make mistakes. The running game for GB was held to 56yds, so the game fell on GB QB Aaron Rodger’s shoulders. Rodgers had a decent game, but TENN made the stops needed to win the game outright. TENN was up 14-6 at the half. GB was able to score 1td & 1fg in the 3rd qtr to make the score TENN 20-17, but TENN added a TD in the 4th qtr to make the final score TENN 27-17. The GB DEF did have an INT, but GB wasn’t able to turn it into points. L10 PHILLY vs GB, 5-5 SUATS. HOME is 6-4 SUATS. GB 9-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. GB 24-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 30-40 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 11-6 ATS on SNF off an SU loss. GB 16-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. GB 11-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. GB 14-8 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 15-6 ATS off DD ATS loss. PHILLY 7-10 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PHILLY 8-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. PHILLY 13-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PHILLY 33-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 43-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY has hit a little speed bump the last two weeks, and they need to get back on track. PHILLY is playing very well, and their OFF hasn’t missed a beat, whether it’s been Jalen Hurts’s feet, arm, running game, or passing game. A lot of teams can’t seem to put pressure on him because he sees it coming. Also, Hurts has spread the ball around, not falling in love with one receiver and becoming dependent on him to make plays. Rodgers keeps talking like the season has hope. The season is lost for GB because they started off poorly and showed delinquencies at the O-LINE and a secondary that doesn’t step up. Rookie WR Christian Watson has stepped up and become a go to guy for Rodgers, but he can’t do it alone. In this game, PHILLY needs to put constant pressure on Rodgers and can’t let him be able to look over the DEF when he wants. PHILLY #5 TOT OFF & PHILLY #2 TOT DEF. Yes, WASH did beat PHILLY @ PHILLY two weeks ago on MNF, but hey had played PHILLY earlier this season, and they are in the division. Rodgers keeps talking, but GB doesn’t keep winning. PHILLY needs to and should be able to shut him down. PHILLY should win by 10pts.

THE PICK: PHILLY-7

Monday November 28th, 2022 8:15pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS PITT+2 ½

LW, PITT was @HOME vs CINCY. PITT was leading CINNCY at the half 20-17. They were looking good up to this point. But, CINCY QB Joe Burrow took over in the 2nd half, and the PITT DEF fell flat. CINCY scored 20pts in the 2nd half while PITT only managed 3pts until a dummy td with less than 1:00 left in the game made the final score look close at 37-30. The PITT OFF looked flat because of bad play calling, and the PITT DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it. LW, INDY was @HOME leading PHILLY 13-3 but couldn’t hold the lead and ended up losing 17-16. I liked INDY+7 ½ @HOME and they were looking good, but the OFF got stagnated in the 2nd half. In this game, INDY was held to 1td and 3fgs when they needed a TD to extend their lead. INDY QB Matt Ryan was decent, going 23/32, 213 yds but with 0tds. He was also sacked 4x.

L9 PITT vs INDY, PITT 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS. PITT 8-10 ATS L18 on MNF. PITT 12-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. PITT 8-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGS. PITT 33-36-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 25-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 8-13 ATS L21 AWAY in NOV. PITT 5-8-1 ATS after CINCY. PITT 10-3 ATS after allowing 35>pts. PITT 20-8 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 14-23 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 8-3 ATS L11 vs AFC SOUTH. INDY 8-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 8-2 ATS as a MNF 2>pts. INDY 33-33-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 30-40-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 19-12 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 14-3 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY should win this game by a td. The PITT OFF looks terrible, and the run game doesn’t look like it is going anywhere because too much pressure is on it. The PITT DEF was picked apart and should be again picked apart in this game. PITT #32 PASS DEF vs INDY #17 PASS OFF. PITT is going through growing pains with QB Kenny Pickett, but he has to show progress and better decisions. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor should get going in this game, and the PITT DEF will be on its toes. INDY Interim HC Jeff Saturday is doing a reasonable job considering what he has and his experience. I think PITT needs to shake up their game plan if they want to start winning. But with INDY coming off that close loss, they may be looking to bounce back here, and PITT is in the way. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: INDY-2 ½

THE BEST BET OF THE FIVE: SEA@ HOME -3 ½

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