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2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 11 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, TB Buccaneers & Jacksonville Jags
Sunday November 20th, 2022 1:00pm
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1), (5-4) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1), (4-6) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS INDY+7 ½
On MNF, PHILLY was @HOME vs WASH as a heavy FAV-11. I liked WASH in this game because it was a division game. WASH has been playing well and PHILLY was ripe for a loss. PHILLY turned the ball over 4x and WASH controlled time of possession by running the ball 49x for 152yds and 2tds. PHILLY did start the game with a 14-7 lead but, by halftime WASH was up 20-14. PHILLY had their chances in the 2nd half but fumbled 2x leading to extra possessions for WASH and time off the clock. The score was WASH 26-21 when PHILLY tried one of those multi lateral plays to no avail and the final was WASH 32-21. LW, INDY QB Matt Ryan replaced Sam Ehlinger as the starter right before game time. Had I known that, I probably would have taken INDY in that game. Ehlinger has not been good and Ryan was well rested and does know the playbook. Well, INDY ran all over LV 30x for 207 yds and 2tds. The INDY DEF in turn held LV to 77yds rushing. Ryan only threw the ball 28x but was successful 21x with 0turnovers. At times he looked like he had all day in the pocket. LV briefly took the lead in the 2nd half, 14-13 but INDY ended up winning 25-20 in a game that went down to the wire. L4 PHILLY vs INDY, INDY 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS. PHILLY 11-18 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 1-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. PHILLY 43-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 34-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 23-14 ATS L37 vs AFC. PHILLY 9-5 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 2-11 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 14-7 ATS vs 400> non-conf opp. INDY 7-9 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. INDY 11-5-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. INDY 29-40-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 36-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 6-10 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 4-14 ATS vs 400>opp off SUATS loss. It was actually good that PHILLY got beat on MNF vs WASH because PHILLY can always correct things and make themselves better. But, in the game they lost two players that are essential. On DEF, run stopper DT Jordan Davis is out and TE Dallas Goedert is out too. Both timetables for return are up in the air. With Matt Ryan at the helm, INDY has a better chance to see what they have on the team. After beating LV last week, they may be able to give PHILLY a run for their money if they watch the film from MNF. INDY does have the runners to keep the ball away from PHILLY and keep time of possession on their side. This is key to keeping the ball away from the PHILLY OFF. INDY needs to limit Ryan’s decision making and the INDY DEF needs to make plays. PHILLY will probably win this game by a fg. But, I like INDY @HOME with the points.
THE PICK: INDY+7 ½
Sunday November 20th, 2022 1:00pm
NY Jets (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (4-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (5-4), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS NYJ+3 ½
NYJ are coming off a bye. Before their bye, they were playing @HOME vs BUFF. NYJ were a heavy HOME DOG @ +13. Well, NYJ were down 14-3 and it looked like BUFF was going to rout NYJ. But NYJ made some adjustments and created some turnovers and NYJ stunned the BILLS, 20-17. Probably the only people who saw that coming were the NYJ. I give them a lot of credit because the week before @NE, NYJ looked terrible. But with the BUFF team they didn’t get down and took care of business. NYJ rushed for a combined 174yds rushing on 34 carries and the NYJ DEF did the rest. NE is also coming off a bye. Before their bye, NE @HOME beat INDY 26-3. It was all NE as they sacked INDY QB Sam Ehlinger 9x. They stopped the INDY rush game for 78yds and this game was all NE. L13 NE vs NYJ, NE 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS. L15 NE(H) vs NYJ, NE 14-1 SU & 8-7 ATS. L24 NE vs NYJ, RAOD 12-12 ATS. L24 NE vs NYJ, NE 22-2 SU & 13-10-1 ATS. L22 NE vs NYJ, NE 16-6 ATS. NE 8-7 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. NE 31-26-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 37-38-3 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 29-19-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NE 2-6 ATS as a FAV 6<pts vs opp w/revenge. NYJ 28-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 37-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 26-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 10-14 ATS as a RD 4<pts. NYJ 4-13-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. I like the NYJ in this one. They haven’t beaten NE either @HOME or @NE in a while so they are due. NE is not as tough as they have been but, they are no pushover either. NYJ cannot turn the ball over. In the last contest, NYJ QB Zach Wilson threw 3INTS. NYJ need to stick to what they did vs BUFF. Keep the run game going and the DEF needs to step up. NYJ #18 RUSH OFF was mostly done without RB James Robinson who adds a nice touch to RB Michael Carter. The DEF needs to put pressure on NE QB Mac Jones so he will make mistakes. NYJ #11 RUSH DEF will help put NE on its back. Take the NYJ here as they finally beat NE by 7pts.
THE PICK: NYJ+3 ½
Sunday November 20th, 2022 4:00pm
Dallas Cowboys (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (8-1), (5-3-1) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (2-1-1) ATS MINN+1
LW, MINN was down 27-10 in the 3rd qtr @BUFF. Everybody in the world, including I, thought that this game was over and it would be a romp for BUFF. MINN didn’t think so and they didn’t go away. They got up and scored 20 straight points before BUFF kicked a fg with :02 left to send this game to OT. MINN kicked a fg in OT and BUFF threw and INT to end the game for MINN and an unbelievable comeback, 33-30. MINN WR Justin Jefferson caught 10 passes for 193yds and 1td. He also made a one handed catch that took the ball away from a BUFF defender that will be on highlight films forever. MINN deserved to win this game. MINN QB Kirk Cousins had 2INTS but fortunately they didn’t turn into any BUFF pts. LW, DAL was up 28-14 in the 4th qtr @GB and lost 31-28 in OT. It didn’t help that DAL QB Dak Prescott threw 2INTS that led to 14pts for GB. DAL HC Mike McCarthy must be so pissed because DAL had this game but blew it. The DEF for DAL didn’t show up when it was needed and DAL deserved to lose this game. GB was able to run all day on the DAL DEF for 207 yds on 39 carries & 1td. GB QB Aaron Rodgers completed just 14 passes but 4 of them went to WR Christian Watson for 107yds and 3TDS. L8 MINN vs DAL, DAL 5-3 SU but 3-5 ATS. DAL 17-10-1 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 14-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DAL 47-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 28-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 1-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs 666> conf opp. DAL 0-11-1 ATS as a FAV <5pts vs 666>conf opp. DAL 2-6 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. MINN 7-3 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. MINN 4-2 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. MINN 8-4 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. MINN 36-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 34-21 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 9-7 ATS vs NFC EAST. MINN 4-9 ATS off SU DOG vs .500>opp. MINN 4-13 ATS vs 666> conf opp. MINN 8-1 ATS w/conference revenge vs opp off SU loss. MINN is coming off a big high and DAL is coming off a big low. There is also a revenge factor for MINN because DAL has beaten MINN @MINN in 2020 & 2021. MINN should be able to run all day over DAL because their RUN DEF is terrible. DAL #29 RUN DEF, this was a problem for DAL vs GB and it will be a problem for them this week. GB didn’t make any mistakes vs DAL LW and DAL didn’t force any turnovers which is a problem. Cousins needs to make sure he doesn’t have any turnovers because DAL will capitalize on them. But MINN and the dome will be pumped. I like MINN to continue to win here because now they have something to play for because PHILLY lost and the #1 seed is in reach. This should be a good game but I like MINN to win.
THE PICK: MINN+1
Sunday November 20th, 2022 8:20pm
KC Chiefs (7-2), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ LA Chargers (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (1-3) ATS LAC+7
LW, KC @HOME didn’t take JAGS too seriously and it showed. KC won the game 27-17 but I like JAGS +9 ½ . If JAGS didn’t miss 2fgs and made at least one of them, the final score would have been closer. JAGS weren’t winning this game but it could have been more competitive. KC was up 20-0 but let JAGS think they had a shot here. JAGS missed a fg at the end of the 1st half which makes this a 7pt game at the final. KC did just enough in the 2nd half to stop JAGS from getting close in this game. LW on SNF, LAC lost a game they should have won @SF. LAC was leading 13-3. The DEF for LAC was doing their job and it was LAC 16-10 at the half. But the OFF sputtered for LAC in the 2nd half and scored 0points. While SF scored 1td and 2fgs to make the score SF 22-16. Lousy play calling is what did LAC in. This is a game they should have won but did not take advantage of. SF was not playing their game and LAC let SF back in. SF made some adjustments and kept LAC at check. LAC needs to be aggressive and that’s how they will win. L15 LAC(H) vs KC, LAC 6-9 SU & 4-11. L31 KC vs LAC, KC 16-14 SU & 17-14 ATS. L31 LAC vs KC, DOG 20-11 ATS. L19 LAC vs KC, KC 14-5 SU & 11-8 ATS. L31 LAC vs KC, ROAD 21-10 ATS. KC 22-18-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. KC 33-49 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 21-30 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. KC 29-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 10-9 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 16-11 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 10-7 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. KC 17-4-1 ATS AWAY after BB Su wins. KC 11-4 ATS vs 500> div opp. LAC 11-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 12-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 4-7-1 ATS L12 a s a HOME DOG. LAC 27-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 24-29 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LAC 37-29-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 3-12 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs 400>opp. LAC 1-7 ATS as a HOME DOG >3pts w/revenge vs 400>opp. LAC 3-10 ATS as a HOME DOG 3>pts vs opp off SUATS win. LAC 4-0 ATS L4 w/revenge vs 750>opp. KC is coming off an easy game and LAC is coming off a game they should have won. The last time these two teams met were in wk 2 on TNF @LAC and KC won 27-24. LAC QB Justin Herbert got hurt in that game and also threw a PICK6 that changed the outcome of the game. Fortunately LAC did come back with a td at the end for the back door cover. But the PICK6 gave KC a lead where LAC was playing catchup the rest of the game. Players don’t forget things like that and LAC needs to bounce back after the loss last week @SF. LAC #5 PASS OFF vs KC #25 PASS DEF is the matchup here. KC #1 PASS OFF vs LAC #13 PASS DEF. The LAC DEF has to get tougher. DE Khalil Mack needs to step it up. The secondary needs to create some turnovers. This should be a battle and I would be very surprised if this game was a blowout on either side. I like LAC and the points here.
THE PICK: LAC+7
Monday November 21st, 2022 8:15pm
SF 49ers (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6), (5-5) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS (Mexico) ARZ+8
LW, I liked ARZ+3 ½ @LAR for the sole reason that QB Colt McCoy is decent backup and could win a game here and there. That’s just what he did @LAR who themselves had a backup QB at the helm. ARZ got a nice game out of McCoy and some decent running out of their run game and were able to hold off the RAMS. The score was ARZ 17-3 at the half and ARZ was in control. It was ARZ 27-10 when LAR score a dummy td with :07 left to make the final 27-17. LW, SF had a chance to go up by 10pts @HOME vs LAC on SNF. SF had the ball with 1st and goal at the LAC 8yd line but took 4plays to kick a fg and win 22-16. SF was a FAV-7 and all they needed was to walk in the endzone but couldn’t get it done. LAC had a 13-3 lead on SF but squandered it. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo was average in this game as was the rest of the OFF. The DEF made plays and helped turn this game around for SF. The SF DEF held the LAC run game to 51yds. The SF DEF also held LAC to 0pts in the 2nd half. L15 ARZ(H) vs SF, ARZ 8-7 SU 7 6-9 ATS. L26 ARZ vs SF, ARZ 13-13 SU & 14-12 ATS . L12 ARZ vs SF, ROAD 93 ATS. L14 SF vs ARZ, DOG 9-5 ATS. SF 30-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 33-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 21-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 15-4 ATS on MNF. SF 16-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. SF 10-2 ATS on MNF vs 333>opp. SF 6-0 ATS L6 AWAY on MNF. SF 7-0 ATS after non-conf HOME GM. SF 7-1 ATS on MNF vs div opp. SF 10-9 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 11-14-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 11-7 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. ARZ 27-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 42-46 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 27-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 2-8 ATS on MNF. ARZ 1-8 ATS on MNF vs div opp. ARZ 8-4 ATS after LAR. SF is battling for a playoff spot behind SEA and ARZ is trying to stay relevant. Colt McCoy played decently vs LAR last week but ARZ shouldn’t bring Kyler Murray back until he is 100% from his hamstring. As for SF, their OFF looked stagnated vs LAC and they are looking forward to gaining some ground on SEA. SF held LAC’s running game to a standstill. SF #1 RUSH DEF vs ARZ #19 RUSH OFF. But SF can be beat in the air if you pick your spots. Both teams are coming off wins. ARZ ‘s win was a little more impressive because SF had to comeback and barely won. However, in a division game, things are usually tighter and I like ARZ with points here.
THE PICK: ARZ+6
THE BEST BET OF THE FIVE GAMES: NYJ+3 ½
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