Northern Colorado vs. Weber State Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 29 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The Northern Colorado Bears (5-7) will visit the Weber State Wildcats (5-8) in a Big Sky matchup on Thursday night. Northern Colorado has lost two straight, falling to Pac-12's Colorado and most recently losing a nail-bitter to the Air Force, 67-65. The Bears have used a quartet of guards to extrapolate offensive production this year. 2021-22 All-Big Sky guard Daylen Kountz, senior Dalton Knecht, two-time All-Big Sky guard Matt Johnson II, and freshman Caleb Shaw have carried out the offense thus far. Knecht and Kountz pace the team in scoring with 17.8 points per game and combined for 39 points in the loss to the Air Force.

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Northern Colorado vs. Weber State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Northern Colorado Bears	+3	0142	+132
Weber State Wildcats	-3	u142	-159

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Weber State has been playing some great ball of late, beating Utah State on the road and taking BYU the distance in a 63-57 defeat. 2021-22 All-Big Sky forward Dillion Jones has been masterful, highlighted by an 18-point, seven-rebound performance on 64% shooting from the field against BYU. Sophomore center Alex Tew added 12 points, but Southern Illinois transfer Steven Verplancken Jr. struggled with only five points on 1-of-8 from the field.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Northern Colorado Bears own a 1.02 AdjOFF SQ this season, which is good for the 144th-best mark in the nation. Weber State has the 108th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. Northern Colorado does well in all key stats, excelling in the shot-making metric and falling in the 100th percentile. Conversely, the Wildcats are in the 82nd percentile of the defensive shot-making metric, the 308th worst mark in the country.

The Bears own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointer, finishing at the rim, half court, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointer, and P&R shot types. They are in the top 50 in three-pointers and half-court shot types while struggling with shots around the rim (324th in the country). Conversely, the Wildcats are in the bottom 150 in all those categories, lowlighted by a 1.05 SQ PPP in P&R shots (332nd in the country).

The Weber State Wildcats have a 0.96 AdjOFF SQ, the 262nd-best mark in the country. Northern Colorado has posted a 1.06 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 274th in the country. The Wildcats are in the top 100 in shot-making and free-throw rate. The Bears are 102nd at defensive free throw rate, but in the 56th percentile in defensive shot-making.

Weber State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-point, half-court, isolation, off-the-dribble three-point, P&R ball screen, and post-up. Outside of the post-up, where they rank 86th per SQ PPP, the Wildcats are between 113-238 in all high-frequency shot types. Conversely, northern Colorado is in the bottom 100 in defending all those shot types except post-up, where they own a 0.84 SQ PPP (93rd in the country).

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Northern Colorado vs. Weber State Prediction

The over on the total looks pretty tempting, with both teams excelling in offensive shot-making while being disastrous in defensive shot-making. Northern Colorado sports arguably the best backcourt in the Big Sky, while Weber has a star in Dillion Jones. Neither team is the favorite to win the conference, but there is a good chance this matchup will feature three All-Big Sky honorees when the season concludes. Don't overthink it.; take the over on the total and watch these two teams exhibit their offensive firepower.

Prediction: Over 142 (-110)

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