San Diego State vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 18 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The San Diego State Aztecs (13-4) will take on the Colorado State Rams (10-9) at Fort Collins on Wednesday. SDSU's six-game winning streak snapped against New Mexico last Saturday, with the final score reading 76-67. Superstar guard Matt Bradley struggled, finishing 5-of-16 from the field in the loss. The Aztecs now sit in second place in the conference standings, a half-game back from Boise State. CSU grabbed a tough win over UNLV on the road 82-81. They also lost to New Mexico this season by a 88-69 score.

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Colorado State Rams

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
San Diego State Aztecs	-4.5	o141.5	-190
Colorado State Rams	+4.5	u141.5	+155

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Colorado State Rams Match Details

Fixture: San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams

Date and Time: Wednesday, January 18 at 10:30 PM ET

Venue: Moby Arena

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Let us take a look at the essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The San Diego State Aztecs own a 1.10 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 53rd in the nation. Colorado State have the 66th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.96. SDSU do well in all key stats, but the rim & three rate and the open three rate metrics. They are outside the top 300 in both those key categories. Conversely, the Rams are just outside the top 175 in both those key stats.

The Aztecs own high-frequency numbers in isolation, midrange, off-the-dribble three-point, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They rank between 130-250 in those shot types. The Rams are placed between 110-195 in defending all those shot types except in the post-up and off-screen, where they rank in the top 25.

The Rams have a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ, the 130th-best mark in the country. SDSU have posted a 0.90 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 6th in the country. The Rams are in the top 70 in spacing and shot-making. The Aztecs are in the 30th percentile in defensive spacing, but in the 78th percentile in defensive shot-making.

CSU are in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, off-the-dribble three-pointers, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition. The Aztecs have done a great job stopping transition buckets but have struggled in midrange.

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Colorado State Rams Prediction

The Rams may not be a tournament team like last season, but they have enough holdovers to level with any team remaining on their schedule. Although SDSU are the conference favorites, CSU can win this game outright, especially with the homecourt advantage. Even if they are unable, their defense should get a boost. Meanwhile, remember that SDSU are 6th in the nation in AdjDEF SQ, and like they say, defense travels. So grab the under in this conference tilt.

Prediction: Under 141.5 (-110)

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