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SUPER BOWL WINNERS & LOSERS ATS
By Jeff Cadillac
When SuperBowl 56 was over last season, the Los Angeles Rams were looking very strong and there was already talk about a repeat performance in 2022. The Cincinnati Bengals were a team on the rise and the consensus was they were a team that would be contending for years to come under the guidance of its young QB, Joe Burrow.
But SuperBowl contending teams seem to falter a little the following season. It’s called the SuperBowl hangover and some SuperBowl winners have not even made the playoffs the following season. This can certainly have an effect on the way bettors decide who to bet on, going forward. Let’s look at the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals as an example of those theories.
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So far in 2022, the Cincinnat Bengals are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS @HOME & 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS AWAY. But let’s break it down just a little bit further. As a HOME FAV they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS. Not bad, as they had a very rusty week 1 game @HOME vs PITT. But CINNCY then seemed to straighten things out by winning decisively in week 4 on TNF vs MIA & then a couple of weeks later in week 6 vs ATL. On the road as a ROAD FAV, Cincinnati has been 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS. Their only speed bump here was week 2 @DAL where the CINNCY O-LINE again gave CINNCY trouble and ending up being a loss. But, they won convincingly the next week @NYJ & in week 6, won in a comeback game @NO. I didn’t really have a worry about the game @NO because the NO DEF seems to give up points late in games but, that another story for another time. So far, no problems with CINNCY. As a DOG on the ROAD in week 5, CINNCY was +3 @BALT on SNF. I knew this was going to be a close game because it was a division game and you must know that division games are usually much tighter than games vs other teams.
I was correct in my call because the game came down to the wire and the always reliable BALT K Justin Tucker kicked a fg with :00 on the clock to give BALT a 19-17 win. If you read my analysis for this game on my website at www.jeffcadillac.com, you would have been completely prepared for what happened in that game. This was the only time so far this season that CINNCY has been getting points and they are 0-1 SU but 1-0 ATS. My advice to you here is, any time CINNCY is getting points, take them.
The Cincinnati Bengals are looking like a stronger team every week and their O-Line is cutting down on the number of sacks allowed.
When it comes to the Los Angeles Rams, they are in a different situation. There was already talk in pre-season and training camp that the Los Angeles Rams were not going to be a strong of a team as they were during their SuperBowl run. There were questions at RB, LB Von Miller had left to sign with Buffalo & O-LINE concerns with the retirement of T Andrew Whitworth. The Rams brought in LB Bobby Wagner from the old “Legion of Boom” Seattle Seahawks but Bobby hasn’t been the presence that the Rams thought he would be when they signed him. The O-LINE and the run game have been complete disasters. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
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At HOME, LAR has had four games so far. They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS. In the 1st game of the season they were +2 ½ @HOME vs the Buffalo Bills on TNF. This was the game that opened up the 2022 season and already things were not looking good for the defending champs. I cannot recall a SuperBowl champ being the DOG for the opening game of the following season, especially @HOME. Well, for the 1st half of the game, LAR was going toe-to-toe with BUFF. The 2nd half is where things fell apart for the LAR. BUFF scored 21 points and LAR scored 0 points and the final score was BUFF 31-10, a blowout. So far, LAR as a HOME DOG is 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS. Going forward, I would say, fade them. As a HOME FAV vs ATL, DAL & CAR, they are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS. But let’s look closer. Against ATL in week 2, LAR had a big lead at 31-10. LAR then sat on the ball and let ATL get back into the game and to make it close, 31-26 for an ATL back door cover. Not a good sign. Against DAL, the score was actually LAR 10-9 but DAL was just getting warmed up when they shutout LAR the rest of the way for the win, 22-10. At the time I couldn’t believe that LAR was the FAV because they really hadn’t proven anything to anyone that they deserved to be a FAV in this game.
Against CAR in week 6, a team that has a lot of problems of their own, LAR was HOME FAV @ -10 ½ . LAR was due for a bounceback win after the week 5 loss @HOME to DAL. LAR had a nice comfortable lead, 24-10 in the 4th qtr. But CAR with a 3rd string QB threw a pass to RB Christian McCaffrey and he ended up deep in RAMS territory. If it wasn’t for a tipped ball intercepted by a LAR defender, LAR would have probably blown the cover.
On the ROAD, LAR was RAOD FAV @ARZ in wk 3 and held off an ARZ team that was w/o their star receiver and was facing some injuries to some of their RBs. LAR was a ROAD FAV @-4 but seemed to cover the spread in a 20-12 win @ARZ. It was uninspired because LAR didn’t really do anything special in this game and ARZ had some suspect play calling when they got close enough to score. The following week was a game @SF on MNF and to say it was a disaster for LAR is an understatement. LAR was a ROAD DOG @+2 ½ and SF was waiting for them. Nothing went right in this game and LAR Matthew Stafford threw an ill-advised INT that was returned for a td that sealed the game for SF at 24-9. By the way, going forward, L12 SF vs LAR, SF 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS. Having this information, you should make a wise decision on who and what to bet on for the next matchup which is in week 8.
Anyway, LAR is going nowhere fast and as of right now doesn’t look to be going to the playoffs to defend their crown. Their #31 RUSH OFF should be weighed heavily when sizing them up against a team that is very good vs the run. This would put extra pressure on QB Matthew Stafford, who doesn’t look like he has the same intensity at the position as he did during the SuperBowl run in 2021. He already has 8INTS and has been sacked 22x through 6 games in 2022. Through six games in 2021, Stafford had 4INTS & was sacked 6x.
By the way, you can do this analysis for almost all the teams that played in the SuperBowl for the last 30 years and you will almost find the same characteristics about the teams going forward following their participation in the SuperBowl. This is really two teams going in different directions and you should do your research before placing your bets on a particular team.
One word of caution, certain SuperBowl losers in the past have suffered from what is known as the “SuperBowl hangover” and never recovered to compete for another SuperBowl title aka; 2016 Atlanta Falcons. But a lot of times the SB loser has been competitive enough the following season to put money back into the hands of bettors. I hope with all this information that I was able to give you some insight into these two teams going forward. Enjoy the games!
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