TCU vs. SMU Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 10 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The SMU Mustangs (3-6) and the (#24) TCU Horned Frogs will renew their rivalry on Saturday at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. SMU has dropped three in a row, losing to then-winless Jackson State and most recently getting taken to the cleaners by Arizona State 75-57.

The backcourt duo of Zach Nutall and Zhuric Phelps continued to try and carry the load on offense, evident by their combined 28 points, but they shot 9-of-26 from the field. It's been tough sledding for a Mustangs squad that lost their head coach and top four bucket-getters from last season. In addition, neither Efe Odigie, a transfer from UTEP, nor Samuel Williamson, a transfer from Louisville, have found their footing this season, with both shooting under 39%.

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TCU vs. SMU Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
TCU Horned Frogs	+11.5	0134.5	+490
SMU Mustangs	-11.5	u134.5	-660

All Lines Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

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TCU is back in the AP Top 25 Poll after falling out of favor after the season's first two weeks. The Horned Frogs picked up wins over Iowa and Providence last week to leapfrog themselves back into the top 25. They beat Jackson State 78-51 this week in a tune-up game without leading scorer Mike Miles and four-year college starter Emanuel Miller. Head coach Jamie Dixon is unsure of their availability on Saturday against SMU. Redshirt sophomore Jakobe Coles scored a career-high 21 points in their stead, while senior Damion Baugh had 15. Six-year senior and 2017 top recruit Chuck O'Bannon and former UT-Arlington star Shahada Wells also scored double-digit points.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions

TCU

Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjOFF SQ = 1.10 (37th)

Shot Selection = 100th Percentile (2nd)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.14 (11th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 91.0% (72nd)

Free Throw Rate (FTR) = 35.5% (80th)

Spacing = 29th Percentile (248th)

Shot Making = 5th Percentile (348th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.26 (11th)

Transition = 1.55 (15th)

Cut = 1.19 (96th)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 0.96 (343rd)

Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjDEF SQ = 0.97 (94th)

Shot Making = 1st Percentile (4th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.03 (69th)

Spacing = 19th Percentile (74th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.91 (8th)

Isolation = 0.83 (32nd)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.08 (104th)

Cut = 1.09 (145th)

Midrange = 0.77 (148th)

Transition = 1.30 (157th)

Post-Up = 0.90 (259th)

Off-Screen = 1.03 (268th)

* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.

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SMU

Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjOFF SQ = 1.00 (178th)

Spacing = 69th Percentile (95th)

FTR = 29.4% (206th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 84.3% (264th)

Shot Making = 14th Percentile (308th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Transition = 1.39 (90th)

Off-Screen = 1.02 (117th)

Cut = 1.16 (124th)

Midrange = 0.79 (142nd)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.02 (182nd)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.97 (197th)

Post-Up = 0.82 (279th)

Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.92 (325th)

Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)

AdjDEF SQ = 1.06 (267th)

Shot Making = 8th Percentile (29th)

Open 3 Rate = 10.9% (30th)

Spacing = 70th Percentile (272nd)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.01 (90th)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.94 (101st)

Post-Up = 0.85 (120th)

Cut = 1.10 (156th)

Off-Screen = 1.00 (189th)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.12 (191st)

Transition = 1.33 (199th)

Midrange = 0.78 (209th)

* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.

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TCU vs. SMU Prediction

Per KenPom, TCU is top 90 in Adjusted Tempo and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are in the 100th percentile in shot selection and are elite in transition and finishing around the basket.

TCU should get out and run against SMU, but the Mustangs are also due for some positive regression on offense. They, too, like to run in transition, which isn't a strength for TCU. With both teams playing up-tempo, they should be able to go over 134.5.

Prediction: Over 134.5 (-110)

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