Tennessee vs. LSU Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 21 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The (#9) Tennessee Volunteers (15-3) will take on the LSU Tigers (12-6) in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Tennessee avenged a shocking defeat against Kentucky with a 70-59 win on the road against Mississippi State. The Volunteers outscored Miss State by 11 in the second half, led by 2021-22 SEC All-Defense honoree Zakai Zeigler's 24 points. Louisiana State continues to try and navigate the post-Will Wade era, losing five straight conference games since beating Arkansas in their SEC opener. They have lost their last four games by a total of 82 points.

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Tennessee Volunteers vs. LSU Tigers

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
Tennessee Volunteers	-11.5	o146.5	-714
LSU Tigers	+11.5	u146.5	+500

Odds are courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook

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Tennessee Volunteers vs. LSU Tigers Match Details

Fixture: Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers

Date and Time: Saturday, January 21 at 4:00 PM ET

Venue: Pete Maravich Assembly Center

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Tennessee Volunteers own a 1.16 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 13th in the nation. LSU has the 107th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.98. Tennessee does well in all key stats, except the open three rate and the rim & three rate metrics. Conversely, the Tigers are 182nd in the defensive open three rate metric and 247th in the defensive rim & three metrics.

The Volunteers have high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-point, cut, half-court, midrange, off-screen, and post-up shot types. They are in the top 110 in all those shot types except in the post-up, with a 0.90 SQ PPP (160th in the country). Conversely, the Tigers are in the top 125 in all those categories except in the midrange, with a 0.77 SQ PPP (224th in the nation).

The Tigers have a 1.06 AdjOFF SQ, the 87th-best mark in the country. Tennessee has posted a 0.91 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 10th in the country. The Tigers are 80th in spacing, landing in the 74th percentile. The Volunteers are in the 50th percentile in defensive spacing.

LSU is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing at the rim, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. In addition, they do well in all but transition. Tennessee, on the other hand, is in the top 120 in defending all those shot types except midrange, where they own a 0.79 SQ PPP (302nd).

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Tennessee vs. LSU Prediction

LSU has been downright terrible over the last month, but most of their talent came from the transfer portal this offseason. They snagged three players from Murray State, led by three-time All-OVC forward K.J. Williams, with only one key contributor this year being on the team last year. To put it into perspective, only 7.3% of the scoring from last year returned to Baton Rouge. However, head coach Matt McMahon also came from Murray State and should continue getting these players to gel. Grab the Tigers at their highest value this season.

Prediction: LSU +11.5 (-110)

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