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The (#7) Texas Longhorns (10-1) will face the Texas A&M Commerce Lions at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas, on Tuesday.
Commerce is in year one of DI play, competing in the Southland Conference under former Hartford All-AEC guard Jaret von Rosenberg. The Lions have had some solid wins, including road victories over Air Force and Hawaii, but have been winless since December.
However, they have faltered against some lowly teams during their five-game losing stretch, with defeats to IUPUI and Denver. Second-leading scorer C.J. Roberts missed their last game against IUPUI, and his status for Tuesday remains uncertain.
Texas vs. Texas A&M-Commerce Betting Odds
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Texas has won four in a row despite head coach Chris Beard being suspended indefinitely without pay after his December 12 arrest on a felony charge. Since his suspension, his fiancee, who made the 911 call on Beard, has denied the Texas coach strangled her, and the university is still in the midst of an internal investigation.
Nevertheless, the Longhorns still spot one of the most talented teams in the country. Six-year senior and 2021-22 All-Big 12 guard Marcus Carr leads the team in scoring, while Iowa State transfer and last season's Big 12 ROY Tyrese Hunter is averaging 11 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. New Mexico State transfer and three-time All-WAC guard Sir'Jabari Rice, 2x All-Pac-12 forward Timmy Allen, fifth-year senior and former Creighton Bluejay Christian Bishop, former Vanderbilt standout Dylan Disu, and blue chip prospects Dillon Mitchell and Arterio Morris round out the key contributors for Texas.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Texas A&M Commerce Lions own a 0.93 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 327th in the nation. Texas has the 7th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.88. Texas A&M Commerce is inferior in all key stats, but shot selection, where they are in the 32nd percentile, and rim and three rate (59th in the country). Conversely, the Longhorns are in the third percentile in defensive shot selection and top 20 in defensive rim and three rate.
The Lions own high-frequency numbers in finishing at the rim, half-court, and isolation shot types. They are in the top 130 in all those shot types except half-court, with a 0.93 SQ PPP (325th in the country). Conversely, the Longhorns are in the top 80 in defending all those categories.
The Texas Longhorns have a 1.09 AdjOFF SQ, the 44th-best mark in the country. Texas A&M Commerce has posted a 1.07 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 304th in the country. The Longhorns are in the top 85 in shot selection and rim and three SQ PPP. The Lions are in the 89th percentile in defensive shot selection and 229th in rim and three SQ PPP.
Texas is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch and shoot three-pointers, cut, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, P&R ball screens, and transition. On the other hand, Texas A&M Commerce is in the bottom 25 in defending all those shot types except catch-and-shoot three-pointers, where they own a 1.01 SQ PPP (67th in the country), and cut, where they own a 1.09 SQ PPP (142nd).
Texas vs. Texas A&M-Commerce Prediction
If C.J. Roberts can't go for Commerce, they will be down to just one starter averaging double-digit points against a defensively stout Texas team. With the Lions matching up so poorly against the Longhorns, the question is, can Texas keep their opponents under 40 points for the game? While 40 seems somewhat insane, the Lions should struggle to score, leaving Texas to score at least 85-100 points for the over to cash. So ride with the under here, as one team will have a tough go on offense for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)
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