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In the last few years as gambling has opened up tremendously in the United States, a new betting instrument has been created to get more people involved in the gambling frenzy.
People who would have never gambled before are finding they are interested in sports for this exact reason like never before. The origins of this new betting or gambling instrument are debated and it seems that it has prevalent in every major sport. This gambling phenomenon is the “PROP” Bet.
The PROP Bet is not based on whether or not a team wins but it is based on a number on how a particular player performs or on how a team performs in the area of statistics. These are not bets that are Against the Spread (ATS), Money Line (ML) or Over/Under (O/U).
For example, there are lines that are set in these categories based on a player’s playing history and their expectant outcome. A QB may have PROP bets related to how many tds he will throw in a game, how may yards he will throw in the game and even how many yards he will rush for in a game.
There are even PROP bets for how many INTs he will throw in a game. It is sort of related to the Over/Under philosophy but in a particular player’s performance, not the team’s point total. I could go through every scenario for every position on the team but, I think you get the jist of it.
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Every week I am asked about certain “PROP” Bets that are associated with many of the games that are played during the NFL season. I am asked whether a QB will throw over or under a certain amount of yards, whether an RB will rush for a certain amount of yards or even if a receiver will catch a certain number of passes. You can almost bet on anything in this category. There is even PROP bets for kickers and punters if you search hard enough.
This week, I will look at certain PROP bets as they pertain to some important games that are on the schedule for WEEK 17 of the NFL season. Granted, I will not get to all of them, but I will discuss some of them that I think are worth mentioning. These amounts move just like the lines move and I will be using lines that were available on Wednesday December 28th.
Of course, some PROP bets may not be available because certain gambling establishments may thin that they are not in their best interest to post them. What I mean by this is that they will not post a line that they think they will lose money on.
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CHI @DET. CHI QB Justin Fields 70.5 rushing yds. In wk 10 @HOME vs DET, Fields rushed for 147yds & 2tds on 13 carries in the 31-30 HOME loss. DET is #28 RUSH DEF. DET is still in the hunt for a playoff spot even at 7-8. CHI would like nothing more than to derail DET’s chances of knocking them from the playoff picture. It’s a good bet that he will try to do his best any way he can to beat DET. Fields has already rushed for over 1000 yds and he will probably rush for over this amount if he plays the whole game. This season Fields has averaged 72.2 yds a game so the PROP bet is slightly under his average. Last week @HOME vs BUFF, Fields rushed for 11yds on 7carries. So some type of bounce back is in order here.
MINN@GB. GB QB Aaron Rodgers 235.5 passing yds. I like Rodgers to perform big this week as there are many factors leaning this way. First, this is a payback game for the week 1 loss @MINN. Second, GB is still in the playoff picture and can get in if they keep winning. Third, the MINN DEF is atrocious. They are #31 in TOT DEF w/#32 in PASS DEF. Rodgers has been averaging 222.1 yds passing a game this season. That is his lowest average over the course of the season in his career. But, considering all the factors associated with this game, the PROP bet is higher than his game average. Do you think Rodgers will go over the PROP bet? If he wants to send a message to MINN, I think he will take every opportunity to stick it to MINN and show everyone how bad their secondary is. I like the OVER on this bet unless, he somehow leaves the game early.
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PITT @BALT. BALT QB Tyler Huntley 0.5 Interceptions. This is a pivotal game for both teams as BALT is looking for better playoff positioning while PITT is just trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt. These games are always tough and they will be under the lights on Sunday Night Football. BALT QB Lamar Jackson is not playing in this game and Huntley will be the signal caller for BALT. In four games this season, Huntley has thrown 1td & 2INTs. In two of those games when he threw 30+ passes he had 1INT in each game. But in the other two games where he threw 17 ot less passes, he had 0INTs. He was the QB for BALT when these two teams met in wk 14 with BALT winning 16-14. In that game Huntley was 8/12 for 88yds, 0tds & 0INTs. Not much throwing on the part of BALT. Will history repeat itself or will this game be a shootout? I’m thinking BALT needs this game as much as PITT and if PITT stops the run vs BALT, BALT will have no choice but to throw the ball and throw often. His history shows that he gets into trouble. I like the OVER on this line because he will turn the ball over and PITT will somehow capitalize on this mistake.
CAR@TB. CAR RB D’Onta Foreman 60.5 Rushing yards. This is a game that only has meaning to both teams battling for supremacy and a playoff spot in the NFC SOUTH. If either team wins this game and their last game, they are in the playoffs. Foreman has been the starter since wk 7 which is right after RB Christian McCaffrey was traded away to SF. Since then Foreman has put up some good numbers in some games that CAR has won and one game that barely lost. But in CAR losses, he has put up some bad rushing numbers. In the wk 7 contest between TB @CAR, Foreman rushed 18x for 118yds & 3tds. TB #17 RUSH DEF. Foreman is averaging 54.1 yds a game. But, his PROP bet line is slightly higher. Does he get more yards or less? I think he gets more yards because there will be times that he breaks through the original line and is able to get into where the TB secondary needs to make a tackle. This will be a good game and will probably go down to the wire.
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MIA@NE. Not much going on here because there are a lot of variables to deal with. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa is out and Teddy Bridgewater will be in. This changes how the OFF for MIA is run and therefore PROP numbers can’t really be set. On the other side, the NE RB situation is also up in the air as to who is playing so no PROP bets could be found either. If you search deep enough, you may be able to find something, but I am sticking with top name establishments in this area. Both teams need this game badly to have any chance of getting to the playoffs, but it will be an exciting game nonetheless.
BUFF@CINNCY. BUFF QB Josh Allen 242.5 yds passing & CINNCY QB Joe Burrow 280.5 yds passing. Over the course of the season, Josh Allen has averaged 268.6 yds passing per game and Joe Burrow has averaged 284yds passing per game. Both PROP bets for these two QBs are lower than their season’s average. In tight games, teams find other ways to get the ball down the field than the customary throws. Considering that the #1 playoff seed is riding on the outcome of this game, I could see why the lines are lower. Josh Allen relies more on his rushing to get the job done than does Joe Burrow. But that doesn’t mean that Allen can’t throw the ball when necessary. In six games this season, he has passed for 300+ yds plus. In two of those games he threw for 400yds or more.
Joe Burrow is a QB that relies more on his arm than his feet. Burrow averages 16.5 yds rushing a game while Allen averages 49.7 yds per game rushing the ball. This is not say that Burrow would not run at all. He chooses his runs wisely and has only run for more than 10x in a game, 1x. Allen has rushed 10x or more, 6x. This is going to be a battle of a game and I like both QBs going over their PROP lines UNLESS, the weather is a big factor in this game.
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There are also PROP lines for each of these QBs in the RUSHING section. Burrow is at 13.5 yds rushing and Allen is at 46.5 yads rushing. These figures are not too far off their season averages and the upcoming weather forecast in CINNCY for Monday night should give an inclining as to whether it will be a good game for passing or whether or not it will be a night for a lot of running with ball.
There are a number of players for both of these two teams listed by how many receiving yards they are anticipated in getting on Monday night. There are too many listed to list here in this article. If you are really seriously considering putting some money down on one of these players, I would suggest doing your due diligence before doing such. Take into account weather, defenses, player averages, injuries, matchups, etc. A lot of people feel, as do I, that this will be a very close game and that any turnovers will be devastating to the team that commits them.
I hope that I was able to help you in your quest to make money betting on NFL games. The PROP bet, like any other bet should be taken as seriously as any other bet. It is necessary to do a little digging and research into finding the best way to attack the Line and win some money. Don’t bet money that you can’t afford to lose and remember have some fun. Talk to you next week.
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Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
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