UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 29 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (9-2) will visit the Cal State Fullerton Titans (6-6) in an interstate battle on Thursday night. UC Santa Barbara has won five straight, most recently using a solid defensive effort to triumph over Appalachian State, 61-50. The Gauchos held App. State to 21 second-half points and 3-for-14 from beyond the arc. Leading scorer and 2021-22 All-Big West guard Ajay Mitchell scored 22 points in the victory. In addition, former Oregon Duck and three-year starter Miles Norris had a 14-point, ten-rebound double-double. California transfer Andre Kelly struggled in the contest, finishing with only two points and one rebound in a season-low 12 minutes of action.

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UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	-4.5	0127.5	-215
Cal State Fullerton Titans	+4.5	u127.5	+185

All Lines Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

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Cal Fullerton also won a defensive battle in their previous contest, ousting the Sacramento State Hornets, 59-49. Last season's Big West sixth man of the year, Jalen Harris, had a team-high 19 points in the starting role. Max Jones and Dartmouth transfer Garrison Wade also sat in double-figure scoring. Leading scorer Latrell Wrightsell Jr. did not play in the contest, but expects to play on Thursday night against the Gauchos.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos own a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 128 in the nation. Cal State has the 195th-best AdjDEF SQ at 1.02. UC Santa Barbara does well in all key stats, except spacing, where they are in the 8th percentile. Conversely, the Titans are in the bottom 150 of all defensive key metrics except defensive spacing, where they are in the 43rd percentile.

The Gauchos own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 50 for SQ PPP in P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shots while only really struggling in off-screen shots (342nd in the country per SQ PPP). Conversely, the Titans are bottom 100 in defending all those categories except finishing at the rim, with a 1.17 SQ PPP (195th), midrange, with a 0.77 SQ PPP (190th), and transition, with a 1.31 SQ PPP (171st).

The Cal State Fullerton Titans have a 1.04 AdjOFF SQ, the 112th-best mark in the country. UC Santa Barbara has posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 122nd in the country. The Titans are in the top 100 in free throw rate and open three rate. The Gauchos are in the bottom half of the country in defensive free throw rate while excelling in open three rate.

Cal State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: finishing at the rim, half-court, and P&R ball screen. However, UC Santa Barbara is 110th in defending in the half court (0.96 SQ PPP), 175th in stopping shots at the rim (1.16 SQ PPP), and 231st in protecting the P&R ball screen (0.99 SQ PPP).

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UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton Prediction

UCSB matches up exceptionally well against what the Cal State Titans will try to do on both ends of the court. However, the Gauchos also have a ton of talent for a mid-major school, which is becoming the norm for UCSB under head coach Joe Pasternack. The spread should be closer to double-digits than a one-possession game, suggesting that the play is riding with UCSB against the spread.

Prediction: UC Santa Barbara -4.5 (-110)

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