UNLV vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 17 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The UNLV Rebels (12-5) will visit the Utah State Aggies (14-4) on Tuesday.

UNLV have had a rough go of it as of late, losing four of their last five, including back-to-back losses to Colorado State and Boise State. The USU lost to Nevada 75-70 in their previous game, allowing the Wolf Pack to shoot 55% from the field. All five starters scored in double-figures for the Aggies but could not keep pace with Nevada's shot-making.

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UNLV vs. Utah State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
UNLV Rebels	+6.5	o149.5	+240
Utah State Aggies	-6.5	u149.5	-300

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

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UNLV vs. Utah State Match Details

Fixture: UNLV Rebels at Utah State Aggies

Date and Time: Tuesday, January 17 at 9:00 PM ET

Venue: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The UNLV Rebels own a 1.07 AdjOFF SQ this season, which is good for 73rd in the nation. Utah State has the 132nd-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.99. UNLV does poorly in all key stats but shot selection, where they are in the 69th percentile. They are also 64th in the Free Throw Rate (FTR) metric. Conversely, the Aggies are in the 57th percentile in defensive shot selection and 146th in FTR.

The Rebels own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-point, finishing at the rim, isolation, midrange, off-the-dribble three-point, and transition shot types. However, they are hit or miss in all those shot types. For example, they are in the top 95 in isolation and attempts near the rim but outside the top 220 in perimeter shots. Conversely, the Aggies do poorly defending all shot types, including being outside the top 225 in defensive isolation and attempts near the rim.

The Aggies have a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ, the 29th-best mark in the country. UNLV has posted a 0.91 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 11th in the country. The Aggies are in the top 10 in shot selection and rim & three SQ PPP. However, the Rebels are in the 35th percentile in defensive shot selection and 193rd in defensive rim & three SQ PPP.

USU is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. However, UNLV is outside the top 175 in defending all those shot types except post-up and transition, where they are in the top 40.

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UNLV vs. Utah State Prediction

This game is tough to decipher, with UNLV struggling as of late despite being chock-full of transfer talent. SQ loves the under in this contest, but the lack of defensive spacing and shot-making for the Rebels is a glaring issue heading into this game.

Meanwhile, the Aggies are playing some great ball outside their previous loss to Nevada, so I expect them to use their homecourt advantage to jump out to an early lead.

Prediction: Utah State -3.5 1H (-110)

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